Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 22:37 UTC

Changes and New Information (22:07 UTC - 22:37 UTC)

1. UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (22:07 UTC) provides an updated list of drone locations:
     • 11 in northern Poltava Oblast.
     • 2 over Poltava city.
     • 4 moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
     • 6 in northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading west.
     • 5 at the intersection of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
     • 1 east of Pavlohrad.
     • 2 heading towards/through Okhtyrka.
     • 2 in Sumy district.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:30 UTC): * UAVs throughout Poltava region moving towards Cherkasy, Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk regions * UAVs in the south-western part of Sumy region are heading to Poltava and Chernihiv regions * UAVs on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions, course western and south-western.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM a LARGE-SCALE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK across a WIDE SWATH OF UKRAINE. The NUMBER OF DRONES (at least 33 reported) is SIGNIFICANT. The MOVEMENT TOWARDS MULTIPLE OBLASTS (Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv) indicates a COORDINATED EFFORT to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. The drone EAST OF PAVLOHRAD is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING, given the PREVIOUS REPORTS of a CONCENTRATION OF DRONES in that area. The drones APPROACHING OKHTYRKA and in SUMY DISTRICT EXPAND THE AREA OF THREAT. The MOVEMENT FROM KHARKIV OBLAST TO POLTAVA OBLAST suggests a POSSIBLE LAUNCH POINT or RE-ROUTING OF DRONES.

2. RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKES REPORTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Colonelcassad (22:11 UTC) provides video purportedly showing FPV drone strikes against a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier and a light vehicle in the Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye direction.
   • Assessment: If confirmed, this demonstrates CONTINUED RUSSIAN USE OF PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS to TARGET UKRAINIAN VEHICLES AND PERSONNEL. The FPV DRONE is a SIGNIFICANT THREAT due to its MANEUVERABILITY AND ACCURACY. The video REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

3. EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN POLTAVA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (22:11 UTC), citing "Suspilne," reports explosions heard in Poltava Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CORROBORATES the reports of DRONE ACTIVITY in POLTAVA OBLAST. The explosions are LIKELY the result of DRONE STRIKES or AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENTS. This is a DIRECT CONFIRMATION of ACTIVE COMBAT.

4. DRONE ALERT IN STAVROPOL KRAI (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (22:14 UTC) reports drone danger in Stavropol Krai.
   • Assessment: This further indicates the widening geographical extent of the drone threat, now impacting Stavropol Krai, Russia.

5. TRUMP CONSIDERS TROOP REDEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (22:20 UTC), citing The Daily Telegraph, reports Trump is considering redeploying US troops from Germany to Hungary.
   • Assessment: This is a POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT in US MILITARY POSTURE IN EUROPE. It could WEAKEN NATO'S EASTERN FLANK and SIGNAL A REDUCED US COMMITMENT TO EUROPEAN SECURITY. This requires CLOSE MONITORING.

6. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ON KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • НгП раZVедка (22:24 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating, from Malaya Loknya in the Kursk region. They claim Ukrainian forces are regrouping near Kazachya Loknya to prevent a collapse and will likely abandon more positions north of Sudzha to shorten the front line. They also claim the road between Sudzha and Gornal near the Melovoye quarry is under threat of being cut off. They estimate 4,000 Ukrainian troops are surrounded (lower than the previous 6,500 estimate). They acknowledge the Ukrainian troops in Kursk are well-trained and motivated, with few surrenders, but are now facing heavy losses and likely a breakout attempt.
   • Colonelcassad (22:24 UTC) posts similar claims.
   • Assessment: These reports, if true, suggest a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES in the KURSK REGION. The claim of a BREAKOUT ATTEMPT is HIGHLY LIKELY, given the ENCIRCLEMENT. The REDUCTION IN THE ESTIMATE OF SURROUNDED TROOPS is SIGNIFICANT. The ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF UKRAINIAN TROOP QUALITY is UNUSUAL for a Russian source and lends SOME CREDIBILITY to the report. However, INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL.

7. CONFIRMED ATTACK ON DOBROPILLIA, 5 KILLED, 15 INJURED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (22:29) reported five were killed, and fifteen injured.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the SEVERE IMPACT of the RUSSIAN ATTACK ON DOBROPILLIA. The HIGH NUMBER OF CASUALTIES among CIVILIANS is EXTREMELY CONCERNING. This REINFORCES the assessment of RUSSIAN TARGETING OF CIVILIANS.

8. EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (22:31 UTC) reports explosions heard in Sumy region, corroborating reports of drone activity.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • LARGE-SCALE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE (CONFIRMED). AT LEAST 33 DRONES reported, targeting MULTIPLE OBLASTS. EXPLOSIONS CONFIRMED in POLTAVA and SUMY OBLASTS.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ATTACK ON DOBROPILLIA, KILLING AT LEAST 5 AND INJURING 15, DAMAGING RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT highlighting RUSSIAN TARGETING OF CIVILIANS.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKES ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IN ODESA, continuing a PATTERN OF ATTACKS aimed at WEAKENING UKRAINE.
  • ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT, including to KYIV. DRONE THREAT NOW EXTENDS TO KRASNODAR KRAI, STAVROPOL KRAI IN RUSSIA.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN THE KURSK REGION REMAIN CRITICAL.
  • CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS REMAINS A CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
  • CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.

• NEW AND UPDATED REPORTS:

  • RUSSIAN CLAIMS IN KURSK REGION SUGGEST A MAJOR ADVANCE AND POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN BREAKOUT ATTEMPT. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
  • RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKES REPORTED. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • HUSITI THREAT TO ISRAEL INCREASES REGIONAL TENSIONS.
  • CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS.
  • INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL DISTRICT.
  • REPORTED INFLUX OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT INTO IZYUM.
  • RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
  • FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS.
  • Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.
  • New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.
  • Claimed high Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk Region.

• AIR RAID ALERT ENDED IN KYIV (21:44).

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • TRUMP'S COMMENTS suggest a POTENTIAL SHIFT in US SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
  • FORMATION OF A NEW MILITARY ADMINISTRATION in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
  • POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE ON RUSSIA with the THREAT OF NEW SANCTIONS.
  • Reports of Eutelsat as possible Starlink replacement.
  • Basurin interview provides insights to Russian perspectives.
  • Reports on logistical issues, especially drone attacks targeting logistics.
  • Russia negotiating with the new Syrian government.

• Humanitarian crisis in Khmeimim base.

• Trump discusses Bitcoin.

• Reports of possible US troop redeployment.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain the highest level of alert for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED OBLASTS.
   • Prioritize the defense of critical infrastructure, including ENERGY FACILITIES, TRANSPORTATION HUBS, AND MILITARY INSTALLATIONS.
   • Deploy all available counter-drone measures, including ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS, JAMMING DEVICES, AND KINETIC INTERCEPTORS.
   • Issue immediate warnings to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in AREAS UNDER THREAT, advising them to SEEK SHELTER.
   • Prepare for potential mass casualty events and MOBILIZE EMERGENCY SERVICES.

2. RESPOND TO THE DOBROPILLIA ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Provide immediate medical assistance to the INJURED.
   • Secure the area and CONDUCT SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS.
   • Document the damage and COLLECT EVIDENCE for POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATIONS.
   • Provide support to the AFFECTED FAMILIES, including SHELTER, FOOD, AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN BREAKOUT ATTEMPT.
   • Utilize reconnaissance drones, satellite imagery (if available), and human intelligence sources to ASSESS THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND.
   • Prepare for potential rapid changes in the BATTLEFIELD SITUATION.

4. ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF US TROOP REDEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY ACTION):

   • Seek clarification from US OFFICIALS regarding the REPORTED PLANS.
   • Assess the potential impact on NATO'S EASTERN FLANK and UKRAINIAN SECURITY.
   • Engage in diplomatic efforts to MAINTAIN A STRONG US COMMITMENT TO EUROPEAN SECURITY.
   • Consider adjustments to Ukrainian military posture if the REDEPLOYMENT takes place.

5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK is the MOST IMMEDIATE AND URGENT CONCERN, posing a THREAT to a WIDE AREA OF UKRAINE. The CONFIRMED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in DOBROPILLIA and ODESA are GRAVE CONCERNS. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION, if confirmed, represent a MAJOR SETBACK for UKRAINIAN FORCES. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INFORMATION GATHERING, ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES, AND CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.85
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.62
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.4
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.55
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.7
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.45
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68