КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (21:38 UTC) claims a Ukrainian strike on the "Konservsushprod" factory in Starodub, Bryansk Oblast, Russia, which produces dry rations for the Russian army. Provides coordinates: 52.5823366, 32.7507285. Video shows debris and smoke.
Assessment: This, if confirmed, represents a UKRAINIAN STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY targeting MILITARY LOGISTICS. The TARGET (DRY FOOD FACTORY) is SIGNIFICANT, as it DIRECTLY IMPACTS RUSSIAN TROOP SUPPLY. REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION, but the PROVISION OF COORDINATES and VIDEO EVIDENCE lends CREDIBILITY.
Юрий (21:47 UTC) reported an additional UAV in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
Lpr 1 (21:39 UTC) reported a drone alarm in Timashevsk and nearby areas in Krasnodar Krai.
Дневник Десантника (21:41 UTC) also reports a drone alarm in Timashevsk.
Lpr 1 (21:39 UTC): Again reported drone alarm in Timashevsk.
Assessment: These reports EXTEND THE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE DRONE THREAT to RUSSIAN TERRITORY, specifically the KRASNODAR KRAI. The MULTIPLE REPORTS from DIFFERENT SOURCESINCREASE THE CREDIBILITY of the threat.
KYIV AIR RAID ALERT ENDED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (21:42 UTC) and РБК-Україна (21:43 UTC) report the end of the air raid alert in Kyiv.
Оперативний ЗСУ (21:44 UTC) also confirmed the air raid alert ended in Kyiv.
Assessment: The IMMEDIATE THREAT TO KYIV has PASSED for THIS SPECIFIC ALERT. However, VIGILANCE MUST BE MAINTAINED.
Николаевский Ванёк (22:01 UTC) reports a ballistic missile threat.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:01 UTC): Reports a ballistic threat.
РБК-Україна (22:03 UTC) also confirmed the ballistic threat.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT indicating a POTENTIAL IMMINENT ATTACK. BALLISTIC MISSILES are FAST-MOVING and DIFFICULT TO INTERCEPT. IMMEDIATE ACTION is REQUIRED.
OTHER REPORTS
ТАСС (21:39 UTC): Reports that the Greek parliament voted to trust the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
ASTRA (21:40 UTC): Confirmed reports of Dobropillia's casualties.
Оперативний ЗСУ (21:41 UTC): Video reports of a raid and elimination of 8 members of the Russian armed forces.
Рыбарь (21:42 UTC): Reports on its second channel.
Сили оборони Півдня України (21:44 UTC): Confirmed reports of damage in Odessa.
НгП раZVедка (21:47 UTC): Reports on progress near the Melovoye quarry.
STERNENKO (21:48 UTC): Posts a picture.
Рыбарь (21:49 UTC): Reports on the key events of the day.
Дневник Десантника (21:49 UTC): Reports on a "Baba Yaga" drone in Belgorod Oblast.
Дневник Десантника (21:50 UTC): Reports on a drone threat in the Samara Oblast.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (21:51 UTC): Video report.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (22:02 UTC): Video reports of the liberation of Andriivka.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT TO AREAS OF UKRAINE.IMMEDIATE ACTION is REQUIRED.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ATTACK ON DOBROPILLIA, KILLING AT LEAST 5 AND INJURING 15, DAMAGING RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT highlighting RUSSIAN TARGETING OF CIVILIANS.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKES ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IN ODESA, continuing a PATTERN OF ATTACKS aimed at WEAKENING UKRAINE.
ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT, including to KYIV. DRONE THREAT NOW EXTENDS TO KRASNODAR KRAI IN RUSSIA.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN THE KURSK REGION REMAIN CRITICAL.
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS REMAINS A CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
REPORTED UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON RUSSIAN DRY FOOD FACTORY IN BRYANSK OBLAST. This, if confirmed, represents a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA.
HUSITI THREAT TO ISRAELINCREASES REGIONAL TENSIONS.
CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS.
INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL DISTRICT.
REPORTED INFLUX OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT INTO IZYUM.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS.
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.
New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.
Claimed high Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk Region.
AIR RAID ALERT ENDED IN KYIV (21:44).
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
TRUMP'S COMMENTS suggest a POTENTIAL SHIFT in US SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
FORMATION OF A NEW MILITARY ADMINISTRATION in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE ON RUSSIA with the THREAT OF NEW SANCTIONS.
Reports of Eutelsat as possible Starlink replacement.
Basurin interview provides insights to Russian perspectives.
Reports on logistical issues, especially drone attacks targeting logistics.
Russia negotiating with the new Syrian government.
Humanitarian crisis in Khmeimim base.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Issue immediate warnings to ALL POPULATIONS in AREAS UNDER THREAT.
Activate all available air defense systems.
Prepare for potential impacts and RAPID RESPONSE.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
RESPOND TO THE DOBROPILLIA ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
ADDRESS THE ONGOING DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):REMAINS UNCHANGED, but EXPANDED to include MONITORING OF KRASNODAR KRAI IN RUSSIA.
MONITOR THE HUSITI THREAT TO ISRAEL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF TRUMP'S COMMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ACTION):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR DENY the reported strike.
Assess the damage to the factory and the POTENTIAL IMPACT on RUSSIAN TROOP SUPPLY.
The BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT is the MOST IMMEDIATE AND URGENT CONCERN. The ONGOING DRONE THREAT, now EXTENDING INTO RUSSIA, and the CONFIRMED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in DOBROPILLIA and ODESA require IMMEDIATE AND SUSTAINED ATTENTION. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA, if confirmed, would represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.85
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.62
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.4
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.55
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.7
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
