Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 21:06 UTC

Changes and New Information (20:37 UTC - 21:06 UTC)

1. US CONSIDERING EASING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • STERNENKO (20:37 UTC) and ТАСС (20:44 UTC), citing Reuters, report that the US is considering rapidly easing sanctions on Russian oil in the event of a "peace agreement." The White House has reportedly instructed the US Treasury Department to prepare mechanisms for this. Current plans reportedly do not involve lifting sanctions without significant concessions from the Kremlin.
   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:54 UTC) frames this as the US wanting to be able to "quickly lift sanctions and avoid delays due to lack of preparation."
   • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the US PUSH FOR NEGOTIATIONS and the USE OF SANCTIONS as LEVERAGE. It SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS UKRAINE'S POSITION by SIGNALING A POTENTIAL US WILLINGNESS to EASE PRESSURE ON RUSSIA even BEFORE SUBSTANTIVE CONCESSIONS ARE MADE. The EMPHASIS ON "RAPID" EASING suggests a DESIRE TO INCENTIVIZE A DEAL QUICKLY, potentially at UKRAINE'S EXPENSE.

2. MAXAR CONFIRMS SUSPENSION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (20:38 UTC) reports that Maxar has confirmed the suspension of access to its satellite imagery for Ukraine. The reason cited is the US government's decision to suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINE'S INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES. The LOSS OF ACCESS to REAL-TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY will SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER UKRAINE'S ABILITY to MONITOR RUSSIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS, IDENTIFY TARGETS, and ASSESS BATTLEFIELD CONDITIONS.

3. WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports drone threats in Mordovia (20:39 UTC) and Astrakhan Oblast (20:41 UTC).
   • Николаевский Ванёк (20:40 UTC) provides a detailed breakdown of drone movements across multiple Ukrainian oblasts:
     • 1 north of Zaporizhzhia
     • 4 in northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
     • 1 towards/through Kamianske
     • 1 east of Pavlohrad
     • 7 at the intersection of Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts
     • 4 north of Cherkasy
     • 6 moving from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast
     • 3 in northern Poltava Oblast
     • 5 flew past Pryluky heading west
     • 4 near Nizhyn
     • 3 near Konotop
     • 1 north of Chernihiv
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 Reports drone threat in the port of Berdyansk (20:26 UTC).
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 Reports drone threat in Kerch (20:27 UTC).
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 Reports drone threat in Primorsko-Akhtarsk (20:24 UTC).
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, both UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN, across MULTIPLE REGIONS. The HIGH NUMBER OF DRONES REPORTED by Николаевский Ванёк suggests a POTENTIAL LARGE-SCALE ATTACK. The REPORTS from Дневник Десантника indicate CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS and POTENTIAL TARGETING of RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED AREAS.

4. AIR RAID ALERTS IN KYIV AND MULTIPLE OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (20:59, 21:00 UTC) and РБК-Україна (21:01 UTC) report an air raid alert in Kyiv due to the threat of enemy drones. Residents are urged to seek shelter.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (21:02 UTC) reports air raid alerts in Kyiv and several other oblasts.
   • РБК-Україна (21:05) Air defense is working in the Kyiv area due to detected drones.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS AN IMMINENT THREAT to KYIV and OTHER REGIONS. The WARNING ABOUT DRONES suggests a LIKELY ATTACK using UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES.

5. RUSSIAN MoD REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• MoD Russia (20:30 UTC): Reports that they launched a group strike by high-precision long-range air, sea, and ground-based weapons on gas and power infrastructure, and neutralized AFU formations in the Kursk region. Claims losses of more than 160 troops and equipment. Shows footage of MLRS and troops in action.
• Assessment: Requires further verification.

6. RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENTS (KURSK OBLAST) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (21:00 UTC): Reports that Russian forces have taken control of Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina, with fighting ongoing for Viktorovka. Claims Ukrainian forces are retreating. Mentions a damaged bridge near Viktorovka.
   • Colonelcassad (20:31 UTC): Claims they have taken control over Nikolaevka.

• *Colonelcassad* (21:04 UTC): Reports deaths in the forest area.
  

*   **Assesment**: Claims Russian forces advanced. Requires verification.

7. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• *РБК-Україна* (20:44 UTC), (21:05 UTC): Reports that Mirage 2000 fighters shot down Russian X-101 missiles today and that air defenses are at work.
  

• Assessment: Confirms the successful use of Mirage and active air defense.

8. OTHER REPORTS:

• Alex Parker Returns (20:37 UTC) : Claims Trump confirmed the limited access.
• Alex Parker Returns (20:49 UTC): Claims that Putin is taking advantage of the fact that the USA has limited the information exchange with Ukraine.
• TACC (20:52 UTC): Reports that the President of Syria has asked for Assad's supporters to lay down their arms.
• Colonelcassad (20:52 UTC): Announces the expansion of the list of foreign agents.
• Оперативний ЗСУ (20:55 UTC): Reports that the Russians attacked the energy infrastructure of Odesa.
• Оперативний ЗСУ (20:45 UTC): Shows a new music video in honor of the Ukrainian soldiers.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN THE KURSK REGION REMAIN CRITICAL. MULTIPLE SOURCES now confirm the CAPTURE OF STARAYA SOROCHINA AND NIKOLAYEVKA. The RUSSIAN MoD claims to have REPELLED a UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT TO INVADE, suggesting a MAJOR ENGAGEMENT. The SITUATION NEAR SUDZHA remains CRITICAL, with a continued THREAT TO UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.
  • CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS REMAINS A CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
  • RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES in POLTAVA, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY. The RUSSIAN MoD CONFIRMS targeting GAS AND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE supporting the UKRAINIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY.
  • CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, PARTICULARLY PATRIOT, SEVERELY LIMITING THEIR ABILITY TO DEFEND AGAINST LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION, with REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS. The REPORTED DESTRUCTION of a LEOPARD TANK is SIGNIFICANT.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS, now confirmed to be targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE.
  • INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL DISTRICT, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
  • REPORTED INFLUX OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT INTO IZYUM. This may be preparation for a counteroffensive, however, it must be confirmed.
  • RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
  • FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS remains a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT but is OVERSHADOWED by the CRITICAL SHORTAGES in AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION.
  • Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.
  • Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.
  • Continued fighting on multiple fronts, especially near Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces reportedly targeting Ukrainian command post.
  • New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.
  • Claimed high Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk Region.

• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • FORMATION OF A NEW MILITARY ADMINISTRATION in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, indicating INCREASED MILITARY CONTROL.
  • POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE ON RUSSIA with the THREAT OF NEW SANCTIONS.

• Reports of Eutelsat as possible Starlink replacement. * Basurin interview provides insights to Russian perspectives. * RYBAR questions the RELIABILITY OF US-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT, POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA. * Reports on logistical issues, especially drone attacks targeting logistics. * Russia negotiating with the new Syrian government.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. RESPOND TO THE RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. THIS REMAINS THE TOP PRIORITY. URGENTLY:

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to CONFIRM the REPORTED CAPTURE of STARAYA SOROCHINA AND NIKOLAYEVKA and the STATUS OF VIKTOROVKA.
   • Assess the current disposition of forces in the AREA and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
   • Prepare for potential counterattacks to RETAKE LOST TERRITORY if feasible.
   • Reinforce defensive lines near SUDZHA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

3. ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

4. RESPOND TO THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

5. ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

6. ASSESS AND REPAIR DAMAGE TO GAS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

7. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. Given the NEW REPORTS of WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES, AIR DEFENSE READINESS is CRITICAL across ALL AREAS, including ODESA, MELITOPOL, BERDYANSK, STAVROPOL KRAI, and CRIMEA.

8. VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm Russian advances.
   • Assess current disposition of forces in the area.

9. VERIFY REPORT OF INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTO IZYUM:

   • Use human intelligence, signal intelligence, and drone feeds to assess the claim.
   • Determine if this represents the building of a counteroffensive.

10. ADDRESS INCREASED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.

    • Increase humanitarian efforts in regions targeted by attacks.
    • Deploy more air defense to the region, if possible.

11. VERIFY UKRAINIAN NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

• Deploy all available reconnaissance assets to VERIFY the CLAIMED LAUNCHES.
• Increase surveillance of POTENTIAL TARGET AREAS, including RUSSIAN NAVAL VESSELS and COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

12. ADDRESS POTENTIAL EASING OF US SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL (EXTREME PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC AND ECONOMIC ACTION):

    • Urgently engage with US officials to CLARIFY THE CONDITIONS under which SANCTIONS MIGHT BE EASED.
    • Express strong concerns about the POTENTIAL IMPACT on UKRAINE'S NEGOTIATING POSITION and MILITARY CAPABILITIES.
    • Explore alternative sources of economic and military support to COMPENSATE for any REDUCTION IN US ASSISTANCE.
    • Develop strategies to MITIGATE THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of POTENTIAL INCREASED RUSSIAN OIL REVENUES.

13. RESPOND TO REPORTED WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Maintain high alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in AREAS IDENTIFIED BY Николаевский Ванёк as having HIGH DRONE CONCENTRATIONS.
    • Deploy additional reconnaissance assets to TRACK DRONE MOVEMENTS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS.
    • Prepare for potential attacks on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and MILITARY FACILITIES.
    • Increase air defense readiness in KYIV due to the CONFIRMED AIR RAID ALERT.

14. MONITOR SARATOV AIRPORT SITUATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

• Maintain close contact with RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES to UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF THE THREAT and the DURATION OF THE RESTRICTIONS.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS, the POTENTIAL EASING OF US SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL, the WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, and the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION create a HIGHLY COMPLEX AND UNPREDICTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to RESPOND TO ONGOING ATTACKS, MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF LOST INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES, PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS, and ADAPT TO THE EVOLVING BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS.

[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62 (Increased due to Russian MoD confirmation)
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.85 (Further increase due to multiple source confirmations and MoD report.)
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.62 (Further increase due to multiple source confirmations and MoD report.)
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.4 (New, from reported multiple strikes, including MoD claims)
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4 (New, based on MoD claims and needing verification.)
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1 (New)
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1 (New)
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05 (New)
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05 (New)
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.55
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1