Okay, here's an updated analysis integrating the new information received since the last report, followed by updated recommendations:

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 20:36 UTC

Changes and New Information (20:06 UTC - 20:36 UTC)

1. EXTENSIVE COMBAT REPORT FROM UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:10 UTC): Reports 109 combat engagements since the start of the day. Russian forces conducted 1 missile strike (using 67 missiles), 60 airstrikes (using 77 KABs), 1240 kamikaze drone attacks, and over 4000 shelling attacks on Ukrainian positions and settlements. Details by direction:
     • Kharkiv: 2 attacks repelled near Vovchansk, airstrike near Hraniv.
     • Kupyansk: 4 attacks repelled near Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, and towards Kupyansk.
     • Lyman: 16 attacks near Hrekivka, Torske, Yampolivka, and towards Nove, Novomykhailivka. 2 engagements ongoing.
     • Siversk: 2 attacks repelled near Bilohorivka.
     • Kramatorsk: 9 engagements near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Chasiv Yar, 1 ongoing. Airstrike on Chasiv Yar.
     • Toretsk: 22 attacks, focusing near Dyliivka, Druzhba, Dachne, and Toretsk. 9 engagements ongoing. Airstrikes on Toretsk, Kleban-Byk, and Kostiantynivka.
     • Pokrovsk: 24 attempts to break through defenses near Yelyzavetivka, Tarasivka, Nadiivka, Promin, Lysivka, Oleksiivka, Andriivka, Ulakly, and towards Nova Poltavka, Pokrovsk. Airstrikes on Oleksandropil, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, and Horikhove. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed 184 Russian soldiers (87 KIA), 1 BTR, 6 vehicles, 7 drone control antennas, 3 motorcycles, 1 mortar, 2 drone control points, and damaged 1 cannon, 1 trench REB, 1 vehicle, and 1 motorcycle.
     • Novopavlivske: 7 attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil and Burlatske. Strikes with NARs on Kostiantynopil and KAB on Perebudova.
     • Huliaipole: No offensive actions, but airstrike with NARs on Zaliznychne.
     • Orikhiv: 4 attacks repelled near Stepove and Piatykhatky, 3 engagements ongoing. Airstrike with NARs on Myrne.
     • Huliaipole and Prydniprovske: No offensive actions.
     • Kursk: 25 attacks repelled, 2 ongoing. 19 airstrikes, 24 KABs, and 377 artillery strikes.
   • Assessment: This COMPREHENSIVE REPORT confirms INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The HIGH NUMBER OF REPORTED ENGAGEMENTS (109) indicates a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT. The EXTENSIVE USE OF AIRPOWER AND ARTILLERY by RUSSIAN FORCES is SIGNIFICANT. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES in DESTROYING RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL on the POKROVSK DIRECTION are ENCOURAGING, but NEED VERIFICATION. The CONTINUED FIGHTING on the TORETSK DIRECTION is CONCERNING. The HIGH NUMBER OF ATTACKS REPULSED in the KURSK REGION (25) SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of a MAJOR RUSSIAN EFFORT there.

2. DRONE ACTIVITY, MULTIPLE LOCATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (20:10 UTC): Reports drone threat in Lipetsk Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:12 UTC): Reports drone groups moving through Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts towards Kyiv Oblast (west and southwest), through Sumy and Poltava Oblasts towards Cherkasy Oblast (southwest), through Sumy towards Poltava Oblast (south), through Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (towards Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih, south), and in Odesa Oblast (northwest).
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (20:12 UTC): Reports missile threat in Melitopol.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (20:26): Drone threat.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (20:27): Drone threat.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, both UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN, across MULTIPLE REGIONS. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE MOVEMENTS towards KYIV, CHERKASY, AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS suggest a POTENTIAL LARGE-SCALE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK. The RUSSIAN DRONE THREATS in LIPETSK OBLAST, MELITOPOL, AND BERYANSK indicate CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS.

3. CONFIRMATION OF BRYANSK OBLAST ATTACK CASUALTY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • AV БогомаZ (20:01 UTC): Confirms Ukrainian drone attack on Starodub, Bryansk Oblast, with one female resident injured. Reports fire at a processing plant and evacuation of nearby residents.
   • ASTRA (20:11 UTC): Reports a resident received shrapnel, while a previous report stated a death.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on STARODUB, with AT LEAST ONE INJURY. The FIRE AT THE PROCESSING PLANT (previously identified as linked to military rations) is SIGNIFICANT.

4. SYRIAN MEMBERSHIP IN OIC RESTORED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (20:12 UTC): Reports Syria's membership in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has been restored, citing a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENT, indicating INCREASING INTERNATIONAL ACCEPTANCE of the NEW SYRIAN GOVERNMENT.

5. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON UKRAINIAN POSITIONS, SUMY OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (19:15 UTC): Shows a video of a strike on a Ukrainian position in the Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: Confirms previous reports of fighting near Sumy.

6. POSSIBLE DISRUPTION TO HIMARS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (19:17 UTC): Reports that American support for HIMARS may have been disabled due to a reduction in information exchange.
   • Assessment: This requires confirmation, and the situation may change rapidly.

7. ODESA STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

• *Рамзай* (20:05 UTC): Reports six explosions in five minutes and that Ukrainian forces are shooting antiaircraft weaponry.
  

• Colonelcassad (19:56 UTC): Reports more Geran strikes, claims many hits.
• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:19 UTC): Reports a massive attack on Odessa with strikes on substations.
  • Assessment: Confirms widespread damage and destruction.

8. RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENTS (KURSK OBLAST) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• *Два майора* (19:59 UTC): Reports that Russian forces are making progress in Malaya Loknya. Shows footage of special RKhBZ incendiary unit.
  

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:46), New York Post: Claims Ukrainian forces may have to withdraw from Kursk within two weeks.
• Alex Parker Returns (19:56): Claims that 6500 are trapped.

• **Assesment**: Claims Russian forces advanced. Requires verification.
  

9. OTHER REPORTS:

• *Оперативний ЗСУ* (20:01 UTC): Reports that the USA is considering fast relaxation of sanctions on Russia.
  

• Igor Artamonov (20:04 UTC): Reports that the red threat level has been called off, while yellow remains.
• Филолог в засаде (20:13 UTC): Reports logistical issues and that the enemy dominates the sky.
• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (20:05 UTC): *Reports a drone threat to Crimea.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN THE KURSK REGION REMAIN CRITICAL. MULTIPLE SOURCES now confirm the CAPTURE OF STARAYA SOROCHINA AND NIKOLAYEVKA. The RUSSIAN MoD claims to have REPELLED a UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT TO INVADE, suggesting a MAJOR ENGAGEMENT. The SITUATION NEAR SUDZHA remains CRITICAL, with a continued THREAT TO UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.
  • CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS REMAINS A CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
  • RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES in POLTAVA, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY. The RUSSIAN MoD CONFIRMS targeting GAS AND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE supporting the UKRAINIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY.
  • CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, PARTICULARLY PATRIOT, SEVERELY LIMITING THEIR ABILITY TO DEFEND AGAINST LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS.
  • EXTENSIVE COMBAT REPORT FROM UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS.

• WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, both UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN, across MULTIPLE REGIONS.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION, with REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS. The REPORTED DESTRUCTION of a LEOPARD TANK is SIGNIFICANT.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS, now confirmed to be targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE.
  • INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL DISTRICT, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
  • REPORTED INFLUX OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT INTO IZYUM. This may be preparation for a counteroffensive, however, it must be confirmed.
  • RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
  • FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS remains a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT but is OVERSHADOWED by the CRITICAL SHORTAGES in AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION.
  • Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.
  • Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.
  • Continued fighting on multiple fronts, especially near Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces reportedly targeting Ukrainian command post.
  • New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.
  • Claimed high Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk Region.

• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • FORMATION OF A NEW MILITARY ADMINISTRATION in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, indicating INCREASED MILITARY CONTROL.
  • POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE ON RUSSIA with the THREAT OF NEW SANCTIONS.

• Reports of Eutelsat as possible Starlink replacement. * Basurin interview provides insights to Russian perspectives. * RYBAR questions the RELIABILITY OF US-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT, POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA. * Reports on logistical issues, especially drone attacks targeting logistics. * Russia negotiating with the new Syrian government.

• SYRIAN MEMBERSHIP IN OIC RESTORED.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. RESPOND TO THE RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. THIS REMAINS THE TOP PRIORITY. Given the NEW REPORTS suggesting a POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, URGENT ACTION is needed to:

   • Verify the claimed withdrawal timeframe.
   • Assess the feasibility of holding current positions.
   • Prepare for a potential controlled withdrawal if necessary, prioritizing the SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and EQUIPMENT.
   • Reinforce defensive lines further back if a withdrawal is deemed necessary.

3. ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

4. RESPOND TO THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

5. ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

6. ASSESS AND REPAIR DAMAGE TO GAS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

7. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. Given the NEW REPORTS of WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES, AIR DEFENSE READINESS is CRITICAL across ALL AREAS, including ODESA, MELITOPOL, BERDYANSK, STAVROPOL KRAI, and CRIMEA.

8. VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm Russian advances.
   • Assess current disposition of forces in the area.

9. VERIFY REPORT OF INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTO IZYUM:

   • Use human intelligence, signal intelligence, and drone feeds to assess the claim.
   • Determine if this represents the building of a counteroffensive.

10. ADDRESS INCREASED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.

    • Increase humanitarian efforts in regions targeted by attacks.
    • Deploy more air defense to the region, if possible.

11. VERIFY UKRAINIAN NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

• Deploy all available reconnaissance assets to VERIFY the CLAIMED LAUNCHES.
• Increase surveillance of POTENTIAL TARGET AREAS, including RUSSIAN NAVAL VESSELS and COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

12. ANALYZE UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Cross-reference the claims of RUSSIAN LOSSES and EQUIPMENT DESTROYED with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES.
    • Assess the impact of the REPORTED FIGHTING on RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.
    • Identify key areas where UKRAINIAN DEFENSES are HOLDING and AREAS OF CONCERN.
    • Evaluate the effectiveness of UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE based on the REPORTED NUMBER OF MISSILES AND DRONES USED BY RUSSIA.

13. RESPOND TO REPORTED WIDESPREAD UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Increase air defense readiness in KYIV, CHERKASY, AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS.
    • Deploy additional reconnaissance assets to TRACK DRONE MOVEMENTS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS.
    • Prepare for potential attacks on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and MILITARY FACILITIES.

14. MONITOR SARATOV AIRPORT SITUATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

• Maintain close contact with RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES to UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF THE THREAT and the DURATION OF THE RESTRICTIONS.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, both UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN, and the INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS as reported by the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF create a HIGHLY COMPLEX AND UNPREDICTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to RESPOND TO ONGOING ATTACKS, VERIFY CRITICAL INFORMATION, and ADAPT TO THE EVOLVING BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS.

[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62 (Increased due to Russian MoD confirmation)
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.85 (Further increase due to multiple source confirmations and MoD report.)
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.62 (Further increase due to multiple source confirmations and MoD report.)
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.4 (New, from reported multiple strikes, including MoD claims)
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4 (New, based on MoD claims and needing verification.)
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1 (New)
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1 (New)
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05 (New)
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05 (New)
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.55
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
• Ukraine is on the verge of pulling out of operations in the Kursk Region.: 0.4 (Based on reports.)
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• There is widespread and intense fighting across multiple fronts: 0.75 (Based on Ukrainian General Staff report.)
• Russia is using extensive airpower and artillery: 0.7 (Based on Ukrainian General Staff report.)
• Ukrainian forces are successfully destroying significant Russian equipment and personnel on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.4 (Based on Ukrainian General Staff report, needs verification.)
• Ukrainian forces are under extreme pressure on the Toretsk direction: 0.6 (Based on Ukrainian General Staff report.)
• Widespread drone activity, both Ukrainian and Russian.: 0.85
• Potential large-scale Ukrainian drone attack is imminent.: 0.3