Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 20:06 UTC

This update integrates the latest information received between 19:43 UTC and 20:06 UTC on March 7, 2025, building upon the previous comprehensive assessment.

Changes and New Information (19:43 UTC - 20:06 UTC)

1. CONFIRMATION OF INTENSE "GERAN" DRONE ATTACKS ON ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:43 UTC): Reports intense drone attacks on Odesa.
   • Colonelcassad (19:43, 19:56 UTC): Reports a wave of "Geran" drone attacks on Odesa Oblast, claiming ineffective Ukrainian air defense. Also claims Ukrainian drone launches towards Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. Video evidence of explosions in Odessa provided.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:44 UTC): Also reports.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A MAJOR RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK on ODESA and ODESA OBLAST, utilizing GERAN DRONES (likely Shahed-136/131). The CLAIM OF INEFFECTIVE UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE is CONCERNING but REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The REPORT OF RECIPROCAL UKRAINIAN DRONE LAUNCHES towards CRIMEA and KRASNODAR KRAI indicates a TWO-SIDED DRONE WARFARE ESCALATION.

2. RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (19:44 UTC): Reports Russian forces liberated Staraya Sorochina and Nikolayevka near Loknya (Kursk Oblast) and are fighting on the border with Sumy Oblast. Map provided.
   • Два майора (19:59 UTC): Reports that Russian forces are pushing forward at Malaya Loknya, and provides footage of what they claim is special RKhBZ incendiary squad activity.
   • Assessment: These reports, combined with earlier information, FURTHER CONFIRM SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION. The CONSISTENT REPORTING from MULTIPLE SOURCES increases the CONFIDENCE in these claims.

3. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON "KONSERVSUSHPROD" PLANT IN BRYANSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ASTRA (19:46 UTC): Reports a Ukrainian drone attack on the "Konservsushprod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk Oblast, claiming one death. The plant produces dry rations for the Russian military. Video evidence provided.
   • AV БогомаZ (20:01 UTC): Reports that there was an attack.
   • Assessment: This LIKELY CONFIRMS A UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on a MILITARY-LINKED FACILITY inside RUSSIA. The REPORTED CASUALTY is UNFORTUNATE. This attack HIGHLIGHTS UKRAINE'S ABILITY to STRIKE TARGETS within RUSSIAN TERRITORY.

4. CLAIMED POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF UKRAINIAN FORCES FROM KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:46 UTC), citing the New York Post, claims Ukrainian forces may withdraw from Kursk Oblast within two weeks due to a Russian breakthrough near Sudzha and encirclement threats.
   • Alex Parker Returns (19:56 UTC): Reports that around 6500 personnel are trapped.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A MAJOR UKRAINIAN SETBACK in the KURSK REGION, potentially FORCED BY RUSSIAN ADVANCES. The TWO-WEEK TIMEFRAME is SPECIFIC but REQUIRES VERIFICATION. This report ALIGNS WITH THE CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the AREA.

5. CONTINUED DRONE ACTIVITY, MULTIPLE LOCATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (19:47 UTC): Reports drones near Chernomorsk, Usatovo, and north of Pivdenne.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:47, 19:48 UTC): Warns of drone threats to Melitopol and Berdyansk.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:54 UTC): Reports drone activity.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:59 UTC): Warns of a drone threat to Stavropol Krai.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS, both in UKRAINE and RUSSIA. This indicates a CONTINUED AND EXPANDED USE OF DRONES by BOTH SIDES.

6. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (19:51 UTC): Reports Ukrainian launches of Neptune anti-ship missiles near Verbovoye and towards the south.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT to TARGET RUSSIAN NAVAL ASSETS or COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

7. AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS IN SARATOV (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (20:02 UTC): Reports restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Saratov Airport, citing Rosaviatsia.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL AIR THREAT in the SARATOV REGION, possibly DRONES or MISSILES. The RESTRICTIONS are a PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE to ENSURE AVIATION SAFETY.

8. US CONSIDERING EASING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:01 UTC), citing Reuters, reports that the US is considering easing sanctions on Russia in case of a peace agreement.
   • Assessment: This INDICATES A POTENTIAL SHIFT in US POLICY towards INCENTIVIZING NEGOTIATIONS with RUSSIA. The DETAILS and CONDITIONS of any SANCTIONS RELIEF are UNCLEAR.

9. OTHER REPORTS

   • Alex Parker Returns (19:53 UTC): Posts a screenshot suggesting that Ukrainians are in a bad economic situation.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:54 UTC): Reports that Trump is considering moving troops from Germany to Hungary.
   • РБК-Україна (19:59 UTC): Reports that the USA continues to share some intelligence with Ukraine.
   • Alex Parker Returns (19:56 UTC): Reports that around 6500 personnel are trapped in a "cauldron."
   • Igor Artamonov (20:04 UTC): Reports that the red threat level has been called off, while yellow remains.

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (20:05 UTC): *Reports a drone threat to Crimea.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN THE KURSK REGION REMAIN CRITICAL. MULTIPLE SOURCES now confirm the CAPTURE OF STARAYA SOROCHINA AND NIKOLAYEVKA. The RUSSIAN MoD claims to have REPELLED a UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT TO INVADE, suggesting a MAJOR ENGAGEMENT. The SITUATION NEAR SUDZHA remains CRITICAL, with a continued THREAT TO UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.
  • CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS REMAINS A CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
  • RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES in POLTAVA, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY. The RUSSIAN MoD CONFIRMS targeting GAS AND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE supporting the UKRAINIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY.
  • CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, PARTICULARLY PATRIOT, SEVERELY LIMITING THEIR ABILITY TO DEFEND AGAINST LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS.

• CONFIRMED INTENSE "GERAN" DRONE ATTACKS on ODESA and ODESA OBLAST. MULTIPLE SOURCES CONFIRM the ATTACKS, with VIDEO EVIDENCE.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION, with REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS. The REPORTED DESTRUCTION of a LEOPARD TANK is SIGNIFICANT.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS, now confirmed to be targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE.
  • INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL DISTRICT, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
  • REPORTED INFLUX OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT INTO IZYUM. This may be preparation for a counteroffensive, however, it must be confirmed.
  • RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
  • FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS remains a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT but is OVERSHADOWED by the CRITICAL SHORTAGES in AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION.

• WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS, both in UKRAINE and RUSSIA. * REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on a MILITARY-LINKED FACILITY in BRYANSK OBLAST. * CLAIMED POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF UKRAINIAN FORCES from KURSK OBLAST within TWO WEEKS. * CLAIMED UKRAINIAN NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES.

  • Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed. * Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole. * Continued fighting on multiple fronts, especially near Pokrovsk. * Russian forces reportedly targeting Ukrainian command post. * New Russian drone "Avatar" reported. * Claimed high Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk Region.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • FORMATION OF A NEW MILITARY ADMINISTRATION in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, indicating INCREASED MILITARY CONTROL.
  • POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE ON RUSSIA with the THREAT OF NEW SANCTIONS.

• Reports of Eutelsat as possible Starlink replacement. * Basurin interview provides insights to Russian perspectives. * RYBAR questions the RELIABILITY OF US-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT, POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA. * Reports on logistical issues, especially drone attacks targeting logistics. * Russia negotiating with the new Syrian government.

• AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS in SARATOV.

  • US CONSIDERING EASING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. RESPOND TO THE RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. THIS REMAINS THE TOP PRIORITY. Given the NEW REPORTS suggesting a POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, URGENT ACTION is needed to:

   • Verify the claimed withdrawal timeframe.
   • Assess the feasibility of holding current positions.
   • Prepare for a potential controlled withdrawal if necessary, prioritizing the SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and EQUIPMENT.
   • Reinforce defensive lines further back if a withdrawal is deemed necessary.

3. ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

4. RESPOND TO THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

5. ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

6. ASSESS AND REPAIR DAMAGE TO GAS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

7. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. Given the NEW REPORTS of WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES, AIR DEFENSE READINESS is CRITICAL across ALL AREAS, including ODESA, MELITOPOL, BERDYANSK, STAVROPOL KRAI, and CRIMEA.

8. VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm Russian advances.
   • Assess current disposition of forces in the area.

9. VERIFY REPORT OF INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTO IZYUM:

   • Use human intelligence, signal intelligence, and drone feeds to assess the claim.
   • Determine if this represents the building of a counteroffensive.

10. ADDRESS INCREASED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.

    • Increase humanitarian efforts in regions targeted by attacks.
    • Deploy more air defense to the region, if possible.

11. VERIFY UKRAINIAN NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

• Deploy all available reconnaissance assets to VERIFY the CLAIMED LAUNCHES.
• Increase surveillance of POTENTIAL TARGET AREAS, including RUSSIAN NAVAL VESSELS and COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

12. MONITOR SARATOV AIRPORT SITUATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

• Maintain close contact with RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES to UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF THE THREAT and the DURATION OF THE RESTRICTIONS.

13. ASSESS POTENTIAL US SANCTIONS EASING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, EVALUATION):

• Gather information on the SPECIFIC SANCTIONS being CONSIDERED FOR EASING and the CONDITIONS attached.
• Assess the potential impact on RUSSIA'S ECONOMY AND MILITARY CAPABILITIES.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS ON ODESA, the WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, the POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL FROM KURSK, and the CLAIMED NEPTUNE MISSILE LAUNCHES create a HIGHLY COMPLEX AND UNPREDICTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to RESPOND TO ONGOING ATTACKS, VERIFY CRITICAL INFORMATION, and ADAPT TO THE EVOLVING BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS. The POTENTIAL EASING OF US SANCTIONS is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING.

[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62 (Increased due to Russian MoD confirmation)
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.85 (Further increase due to multiple source confirmations and MoD report.)
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.62 (Further increase due to multiple source confirmations and MoD report.)
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.4 (New, from reported multiple strikes, including MoD claims)
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4 (New, based on MoD claims and needing verification.)
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1 (New)
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1 (New)
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05 (New)
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05 (New)
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.55
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
• Ukraine is on the verge of pulling out of operations in the Kursk Region.: 0.4 (Based on reports.)
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1