Russian MoD (11:06 UTC, Parts I & II): Provides a comprehensive summary of Russian military operations from March 1-7, 2025. Key claims include:
Seven group strikes with high-precision weapons and drones targeting Ukrainian military airfields, ammunition depots, drone production facilities, command posts, and temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian forces, nationalists, and foreign mercenaries.
A group strike last night targeting gas and power infrastructure supporting Ukrainian defense industry enterprises. All targets were reportedly engaged.
Sever Group of Forces: Continued operations in the Kursk region, inflicting significant losses on Ukrainian units.
Kharkov Direction: Strikes on multiple Ukrainian brigades and border guard units.
Zapad Group of Forces: Claimed to have taken "more advantageous lines and positions," inflicting losses on multiple Ukrainian brigades.
Yug Group of Forces: Claimed to have improved its tactical position and inflicted losses.
Tsentr Group of Forces: Claimed to have improved its tactical situation and liberated Andreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).
Vostok Group of Forces: Claimed to have advanced "to the depths of the enemy's defense" and liberated Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
Dnepr Group of Forces: Claimed to have improved its situation along the front line.
Air Defense: Claimed to have shot down 21 JDAM guided bombs, 5 HIMARS projectiles, and 637 fixed-wing drones.
Ukrainian Surrenders: Claimed that 35 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered during the week.
Total Losses (Since Start of Operation): Provided extensive figures for total Ukrainian losses of aircraft, helicopters, drones, anti-aircraft systems, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, and other military equipment.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR PROPAGANDA RELEASE from the RUSSIAN MoD, intended to portray RUSSIAN MILITARY SUCCESSES and UKRAINIAN LOSSES. While the specific claims of troop and equipment losses are LIKELY INFLATED, the OVERALL TREND of RUSSIAN ADVANCES on MULTIPLE FRONTS is CONSISTENT with OTHER REPORTING. The CLAIMED STRIKES on GAS AND POWER INFRASTRUCTURECORROBORATE previous reports of ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. The CLAIMED LIBERATION of ANDREYEVKA, SKUDNOYE, BURLATSKOYE, AND PRIVOLNOYE represents NEW AND SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS, requiring URGENT VERIFICATION. The REPORT OF 35 UKRAINIAN SURRENDERS is POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRES CONFIRMATION. The TOTAL LOSS FIGURES are HIGHLY LIKELY EXAGGERATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES, but REINFORCE the NARRATIVE of SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES over the course of the conflict.
RUSSIAN MoD ON REPELLING UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT TO INVADE KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Russian MoD (11:56 UTC): Claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region on March 7, 2025. Provides details of alleged Ukrainian losses and locations of engagements.
Assessment: This report REINFORCES the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE BREACHES in the KURSK REGION. The LEVEL OF DETAIL provided by the RUSSIAN MoD suggests a SIGNIFICANT ENGAGEMENT. The CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES are LIKELY INFLATED, but the REPORT as a whole CONFIRMS the CONTINUED FIGHTING in the KURSK REGION.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES CONFIRMED IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Z комитет + карта СВО (11:50 UTC): Claims Russian forces advanced in the area of operations and liberated Staraya Sorochina and Nikolayevka.
Военкор Котенок (11:56 UTC): Reports that Russian forces liberated Staraya Sorochina and Nikolayevka.
Военкор Котенок (13:07 UTC): Reports Russian forces took Viktorovka near Malaya Loknya and advanced north of it.
Assessment: These reports, combined with earlier information, provide FURTHER CONFIRMATION of SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION. The CONSISTENT REPORTING from MULTIPLE SOURCES increases the CONFIDENCE in these claims. The CLAIMED CAPTURE of VIKTOROVKA represents a FURTHER RUSSIAN GAIN.
FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Военкор Котенок (13:06): Reports continued fighting on the Pokrovsk front.
WarGonzo (14:01 UTC): Reports the destruction of a Ukrainian Leopard tank on the Zverevo-Shevchenko line, with a follow-up strike in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
Военкор Котенок (16:00 UTC): Reports continued Ukrainian counterattacks, with intense fighting in the areas of Kotlino, Peschanoye, and Shevchenko.
Assessment: These reports confirm CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION. The REPORTED DESTRUCTION of a LEOPARD TANK is SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRES FURTHER VERIFICATION. The REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS indicate that the SITUATION on this front is HIGHLY DYNAMIC.
ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL, DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (16:30 UTC): Reports over 20 attacks on Nikopol district during the day, using various weapons including kamikaze drones and artillery. Damage to infrastructure, an industrial enterprise, an administrative building, a college, a four-story building, and a truck. A fire was extinguished. No casualties reported.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on the NIKOPOL DISTRICT, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. The USE OF MULTIPLE WEAPON SYSTEMS indicates a CONCENTRATED EFFORT to INFLICT DAMAGE. The ABSENCE OF REPORTED CASUALTIES is FORTUNATE, but the DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE is SIGNIFICANT.
NEW MILITARY ADMINISTRATION FORMED IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (15:12 UTC): Reports the creation of the Novopavlivska military administration in the Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by presidential decree.
Assessment: This indicates an INCREASED MILITARY PRESENCE and CONTROL in this SPECIFIC AREA, likely in RESPONSE TO INCREASED THREATS. The FORMATION OF A MILITARY ADMINISTRATION suggests that the SITUATION in this area is CONSIDERED SERIOUS.
TRUMP'S STATEMENTS ON POTENTIAL SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Басурин о главном (16:14 UTC): Reports Trump's intention to impose the strongest sanctions against the entire Russian banking sector.
ASTRA (14:31 UTC): Reports that Trump is considering imposing large-scale banking sanctions and tariffs against Russia.
STERNENKO (14:35): Reports that Trump is considering imposing sanctions.
Assessment: These reports indicate a POTENTIAL SHIFT in US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE on RUSSIA. The THREAT OF SANCTIONS is LIKELY INTENDED to FORCE RUSSIA to NEGOTIATE, but the EFFECTIVENESS of this tactic is UNCERTAIN.
REPORTS OF MILITARY DELIVERIES AND ACTIONS
Russian MoD videos (13:07 UTC, 13:58 UTC, 15:30 UTC, and 16:10 UTC): Shows claimed destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles, personnel, and a self-propelled gun.
* WarGonzo (14:17 UTC): Reports on a delivery of supplies to Russian troops, followed by the destruction of Ukrainian drones.
* АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (11:07 UTC, 12:51 UTC): Reports on the destruction of Ukrainian forces, and presents a video on a repair company's operations.
* Kotsnews (14:21 UTC): Reports on the elimination of Ukrainian personnel in the Kursk region by drone operators.
* STERNENKO (13:43, 15:21, 16:20): Reports on Ukrainian forces destroying Russian personnel, equipment, and vehicles, including tanks and boats, particularly in the Kursk region.
Assessment: These reports show the ongoing nature of combat, with a focus on both offensive actions and support/logistical tasks.
UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:35 UTC): Reports on the movement of multiple groups of UAVs across various regions of Ukraine, including Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Odesa.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS, targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE.
CLAIMS OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE FIGHTING
Kotsnews (14:51 UTC): Reports on the difficult situation for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, suggesting a potential encirclement.
UKRAINIAN PRISONERS OF WAR (LOW PRIORITY)
MoD Russia (17:00 UTC) Reports one such prisoner of war who states they were fired at by their own forces.
Assessment: This could suggest that Ukraine is performing well by taking prisoners.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN THE KURSK REGION REMAIN CRITICAL. MULTIPLE SOURCES now confirm the CAPTURE OF STARAYA SOROCHINA, NIKOLAYEVKA, AND VIKTOROVKA. The RUSSIAN MoD claims to have REPELLED a UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT TO INVADE, suggesting a MAJOR ENGAGEMENT. The SITUATION NEAR SUDZHA remains CRITICAL, with a continued THREAT TO UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS REMAINS A CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES in POLTAVA, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY. The RUSSIAN MoDCONFIRMS targeting GAS AND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE supporting the UKRAINIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY.
CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, PARTICULARLY PATRIOT, SEVERELY LIMITING THEIR ABILITY TO DEFEND AGAINST LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION, with REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS. The REPORTED DESTRUCTION of a LEOPARD TANK is SIGNIFICANT.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS, now confirmed to be targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE.
INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL DISTRICT, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
REPORTED INFLUX OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT INTO IZYUM. This may be preparation for a counteroffensive, however, it must be confirmed.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS remains a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT but is OVERSHADOWED by the CRITICAL SHORTAGES in AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
FORMATION OF A NEW MILITARY ADMINISTRATION in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, indicating INCREASED MILITARY CONTROL.
POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE ON RUSSIA with the THREAT OF NEW SANCTIONS.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
RESPOND TO THE RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. THIS REMAINS THE TOP PRIORITY.
ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
RESPOND TO THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
ASSESS AND REPAIR DAMAGE TO GAS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. Given the NEW REPORTS of DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS, AIR DEFENSE READINESS is CRITICAL.
VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm Russian advances.
Assess current disposition of forces in the area.
VERIFY REPORT OF INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTO IZYUM:
Use human intelligence, signal intelligence, and drone feeds to assess the claim.
Determine if this represents the building of a counteroffensive.
ADDRESS INCREASED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
Increase humanitarian efforts in regions targeted by attacks.
Deploy more air defense to the region, if possible.
The situation has CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE, with FURTHER CONFIRMATION of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION and INCREASED FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION. The RUSSIAN MoD's comprehensive summary REINFORCES the NARRATIVE of RUSSIAN MILITARY SUCCESSES, although SPECIFIC CLAIMS should be treated with CAUTION. The CONTINUED ATTACKS on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and the WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY pose SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES. The POTENTIAL SHIFT in US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE on RUSSIA is a DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING.
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62 (Increased due to Russian MoD confirmation)
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.76 (Further increase due to multiple source confirmations and MoD report.)
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.62 (Further increase due to multiple source confirmations and MoD report.)
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.4 (New, from reported multiple strikes, including MoD claims)
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4 (New, based on MoD claims and needing verification.)
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1 (New)
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1 (New)
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05 (New)
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05 (New)
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.55
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
