Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 11:06 UTC
Changes and New Information (10:36 UTC - 11:06 UTC)
NEW REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES & UKRAINIAN DEFENSE BREACHES (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:13 UTC, repeated at 10:53 UTC) & Рыбарь (10:28 UTC): Both sources claim Russian forces liberated Nikolaevka (Kursk region) in addition to the previously reported Staraya Sorochina. Рыбарь states fighting has begun for Viktorovka.
Colonelcassad (10:57 UTC): Further claims of Russian advances, including the capture of Nikolaevka, with ongoing pressure on Ukrainian logistics.
Оперативний ЗСУ (10:24 UTC) & ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:59 UTC): Report (citing Ukrainian Pravda "UP" sources) that Russian forces broke through defenses near Sudzha (Kursk region). Stabilization actions are underway to prevent the enemy from cutting off logistics for Ukrainian forces.
Assessment: The CONSISTENT REPORTING from MULTIPLE SOURCES, including BOTH RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN outlets, strongly indicates a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE and SUCCESSFUL BREACH of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the KURSK REGION, particularly near SUDZHA. The CLAIMED CAPTURE of NIKOLAEVKA and the START OF FIGHTING for VIKTOROVKA represent FURTHER RUSSIAN GAINS. The reports of UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS to STABILIZE THE SITUATION and PROTECT LOGISTICS confirm the SEVERITY OF THE THREAT. Рыбарь's report also highlights the DIFFICULT TERRAIN (swampy river near Malaya Loknya) that MAY HINDER further RAPID RUSSIAN ADVANCES in that SPECIFIC DIRECTION, but the SITUATION AROUND SUDZHA appears CRITICAL.
OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE:
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (10:39 UTC): Reports an influx of Ukrainian military personnel and equipment into Izyum, Kharkov Oblast. Claims they are demanding to be housed in all vacant homes and are placing equipment close to civilian areas. POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRES FURTHER VERIFICATION.
Alex Parker Returns (10:39 UTC): Shares a Tweet claiming March 7th was the day of the first combined RF missile attack "coordinated with the USA." DISINFORMATION.
ТАСС (10:41 UTC): Reports Trump views Ukraine as a pawn to avoid armed conflict with Russia (citing The New York Times). NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the IMMEDIATE MILITARY SITUATION, but REINFORCES the NARRATIVE of POTENTIAL REDUCED US SUPPORT for UKRAINE.
Colonelcassad (10:43 UTC): Shows video of drone strikes against Ukrainian infantry. REINFORCES the PREVALENCE OF DRONE WARFARE.
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (10:45 UTC): Reports on the situation in the Kharkiv operational zone as of 09:00 on March 7, 2025. Claims no significant changes, continued Russian air and drone attacks, and Ukrainian defensive actions. Reports Ukrainian losses: 54 personnel, 68 pieces of equipment, and 61 shelters. ROUTINE UPDATE, but CONFIRMS CONTINUED FIGHTING and UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
ASTRA (10:45 UTC): Reports FSB claims of preventing Ukrainian and NATO attempts to recruit members of the "Yunarmia" youth military organization. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION, but HIGHLIGHTS the ONGOING INFORMATION WAR.
ТАСС (10:46 UTC): Claims that relics from the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra may be taken abroad after a Ministry of Culture check. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Военкор Котенок (10:46 UTC): Shows video of alleged militants sent by Damascus displaying ISIS flags. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT TO UKRAINE.
Оперативний ЗСУ (10:46): Shows soldiers celebrating a birthday. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
РБК-Україна (10:50 UTC): Reports (citing Mykhailo Podoliak) that Ukraine has practically restored full cooperation with the US. POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRES FURTHER CONFIRMATION.
ТАСС (10:52 UTC): Reports only 62% of US Air Force planes are combat-ready (citing Defense News). NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE, but POTENTIALLY RELEVANT to LONG-TERM US MILITARY CAPABILITIES.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (10:59 UTC): Reports on a new course in the "Army+" app about countering enemy information and psychological operations. RELEVANT to UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to COMBAT DISINFORMATION.
Офіс Генерального прокурора (11:00 UTC): Reports the arrest of a woman in Rivne who allegedly planned to blow up a recruitment center on behalf of Russian special services. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the BATTLEFIELD SITUATION, but INDICATES ONGOING RUSSIAN EFFORTS to DISRUPT UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION.
ТАСС (11:01 UTC): Reports Bank of Russia extends restrictions on cash withdrawals in foreign currency until September 9, 2025. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (11:03 UTC): Posts a video, claiming he will soon report something. REQUIRES FURTHER INFORMATION.
Fighterbomber (10:35, 10:37, 10:38, 10:39 UTC): A series of images are provided that show various military supplies, such as boots, socks, helmets, Garmin GPS devices, flashlights, and tourniquets. Some images also feature pilots near their aircraft. Potentially important to show the supplies available to forces.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the KURSK REGION, with RUSSIAN FORCES ADVANCING on MULTIPLE AXES. The SITUATION NEAR SUDZHA is CRITICAL, with a THREAT TO UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. The REPORTED CAPTURE OF NIKOLAEVKA and STARAYA SOROCHINA, along with the START OF FIGHTING FOR VIKTOROVKA, represent SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS.
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS remains a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES in POLTAVA, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY.
CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION for UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly PATRIOT, SEVERELY LIMITING their ABILITY TO DEFEND against LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
REPORTED INFLUX OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT INTO IZYUM. This may be preparation for a counteroffensive, however, it must be confirmed.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES around KONSTANTINOVKA, with a REPORTED PUSH TOWARDS BOHATYR that THREATENS TO ENCIRCLE UKRAINIAN FORCES.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS targeting SOUTHERN UKRAINE and KHARKIV.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS remains a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT but is OVERSHADOWED by the CRITICAL SHORTAGES in AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
VARIOUS REPORTS on political developments, fundraising efforts, and propaganda messages.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
RESPOND TO THE RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONSSOUTH OF SUDZHA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PROTECT COMMUNICATION LINES. THIS IS NOW THE TOP PRIORITY. The REPORTS FROM BOTH RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCESCONFIRM THE SEVERITY of the SITUATION.
IMMEDIATELY DEPLOYADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS to VERIFY the REPORTED CAPTURE OF NIKOLAEVKA AND VIKTOROVKA and ASSESS THE EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENTCONTINGENCY PLANS for ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY ROUTES and POTENTIAL EVACUATION of UKRAINIAN FORCES and CIVILIANS if necessary.
CONSIDER DEPLOYINGRESERVE FORCES to the AREA to CONTAIN THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE and LAUNCH COUNTERATTACKS if possible.
ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):THIS REMAINS A CRITICAL PRIORITY.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
RESPOND TO THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
ASSESS AND REPAIR DAMAGE TO GAS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm Russian advances.
Assess current disposition of forces in the area.
VERIFY REPORT OF INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTO IZYUM:
Use human intelligence, signal intelligence, and drone feeds to assess the claim.
Determine if this represents the building of a counteroffensive.
The situation has DETERIORATED FURTHER with CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and a SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the KURSK REGION. The SITUATION NEAR SUDZHA is PARTICULARLY CRITICAL, posing a MAJOR THREAT TO UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. The LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY and the CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITIONREMAIN EXTREME CONCERNS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is REQUIRED to CONTAIN THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KURSK REGION and PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES.
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.58
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.7 (Increased due to confirmed reports from multiple sources.)
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.55 (Increased due to confirmed reports from multiple sources.)
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
