Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 10:36 UTC
Changes and New Information (10:07 UTC - 10:36 UTC)
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE AND FLAG RAISING IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:13 UTC): Claims Russian forces liberated Novaya Sorochina and Staraya Sorochina in the Kursk region, raising Russian flags. Claims soldiers of the 22nd Regiment raised the flag over Staraya Sorochina after clearing the settlement. Video provided.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (10:16 UTC): Reports Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian positions in Lebedevka, east of Belovody. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian T-80 tank southeast of Belovody. Reports continued fighting near Kurilovka, with no significant changes in the line of contact. Claims Ukrainian forces in the Kursk/Sumy border region are being reinforced primarily by mobilized personnel aged 18-24. Claims capture of a 19-year-old Ukrainian soldier.
Kotsnews (10:14) Claims heavy casualties for Ukraine in the Kursk region.
Assessment: These reports, if confirmed, represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE within the KURSK REGION. The CLAIMED CAPTURE of NOVAYA SOROCHINA and STARAYA SOROCHINA would FURTHER CONSOLIDATE RUSSIAN CONTROL along the BORDER. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN RETREAT to MALAYA LOKNYA, combined with the CLAIMED PRESENCE of mostly YOUNG, MOBILIZED UKRAINIAN TROOPS, suggests a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES in this area. The reported DIFFICULT TERRAIN (swampy river) MAY HINDER further RUSSIAN ADVANCES towards MALAYA LOKNYA. The capture of a 19-year-old soldier supports previous information, and also suggests a degradation of military personnel.
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Воин DV (10:30 UTC): Reports that Maxar Technologies has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery "by administrative request," citing a Ukrainian military portal. Claims this is due to President Trump's decision to suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the CRITICAL LOSS of MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTER-ATTACK NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (10:24 UTC): Reports that Russian forces broke through the defenses near Sudzha, citing "UP" (likely Ukrainian Pravda) sources. States that stabilization actions are underway to prevent the enemy from cutting off logistics.
Assessment: This is COUNTER to the Russian claims of success.
OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE:
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (10:07 UTC): Reports an incident of a Russian soldier assaulting a schoolchild in the Moscow region. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
РБК-Україна (10:07): Reports on President Zelensky's reaction to a recent Russian attack. This report has the same content as other information, but doesn't offer new information.
Старше Эдды (10:09): Reports of corruption. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
STERNENKO (10:09 UTC): Reports on a meeting with Putin where a Russian woman claims to have "found" a 4-year-old Ukrainian girl from Kherson. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION, BUT RAISES SERIOUS CONCERNS about POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES (forced deportation of children).
Оперативний ЗСУ (10:10): Reports on young volunteers receiving their first payment. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Два майора (10:10): Several images of Russian soldiers. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
ТАСС (10:11 UTC): Reports on Aeroflot's new self-service baggage check-in at Sheremetyevo Airport. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (10:11): Announces remote participation in UN session. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
РБК-Україна (10:11): Reports that heavy fighting is ongoing in the border of the Sumy region.
Старше Эдды (10:12): Discussion of migrants in Russia. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (10:19) Claims intense fighting between new security forces and loyalists. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
ТАСС (10:21) Claims US officials are positive of Russia's new US ambassador. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
* Рыбарь (10:21): Reports on Finnish naval exercises near international waters, practicing blockade of the Gulf of Finland. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE.
ТАСС (10:22 UTC): Reports on Putin discussing internal stability with the Security Council. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Colonelcassad (10:22) Claims the Russian military has been striking targets in Ukraine. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Alex Parker Returns (10:18) Comments of Putin's fasting habits. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
ASTRA (10:15) Reports on attacks in Syria NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (10:16): Reports on mine safety training for schoolchildren. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
ТАСС (10:16): Reports on the death of a program creator. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
* РБК-Україна (10:33 UTC): Reports on the appointment of a gender advisor to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Два майора (10:34): Reports on a new law requiring Ukrainian officials to know English. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (10:31): Reports on civilian casualties. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
WarGonzo (10:31 UTC): Reports on the use of "Ovod" drones from Tula to destroy imported equipment, specifically an M113. Video provided. POTENTIALLY RELEVANT as it SHOWS UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT LOSSES, but REQUIRES FURTHER VERIFICATION.
ТАСС (10:32): Reports that an actor doesn't have debts. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Fighterbomber (10:35): Provides photos. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS remains the MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, with REPORTED CAPTURE OF TWO SETTLEMENTS (Novaya Sorochina and Staraya Sorochina) and POTENTIAL THREAT to UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS near SUDZHA. The SITUATION FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES is DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES in POLTAVA, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY.
CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION for UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly PATRIOT, SEVERELY LIMITING their ABILITY TO DEFEND against LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES around KONSTANTINOVKA, with a REPORTED PUSH TOWARDS BOHATYR that THREATENS TO ENCIRCLE UKRAINIAN FORCES.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS targeting SOUTHERN UKRAINE and KHARKIV.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS remains a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT but is OVERSHADOWED by the CRITICAL SHORTAGES in AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
VARIOUS REPORTS on political developments, fundraising efforts, and propaganda messages.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):THIS REMAINS THE TOP PRIORITY.
IMMEDIATELY SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES of SATELLITE IMAGERY from ALLIED NATIONS and COMMERCIAL PROVIDERS.
INCREASE RELIANCE on OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES, including HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, and DRONE RECONNAISSANCE.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENTMITIGATION STRATEGIES to COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF VISUAL INTELLIGENCE, such as INCREASED USE OF ANALYTICAL MODELS and PREDICTIVE ALGORITHMS.
RESPOND TO THE DETERIORATING SITUATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONSSOUTH OF SUDZHA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PROTECT COMMUNICATION LINES. THIS IS NOW EVEN MORE CRITICAL given the REPORTED RUSSIAN GAINS.
IMMEDIATELY DEPLOYADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS to VERIFY THE REPORTED CAPTURE OF NOVAYA SOROCHINA AND STARAYA SOROCHINA and ASSESS THE CURRENT SITUATION. THIS IS NOW HIGHER PRIORITY due to the CONFIRMING REPORTS from MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES.
VERIFY REPORTS about UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS NEAR SUDZHA.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENTCONTINGENCY PLANS for ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY ROUTES and POTENTIAL EVACUATION of UKRAINIAN FORCES if necessary.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from AREAS UNDER THREAT.
RESPOND TO THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY ASSESS the SITUATION AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA and VERIFY THE REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES TOWARDS BOHATYR.
REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and MAINTAIN SUPPLY LINES.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENTCONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL BREAKOUT or WITHDRAWAL if necessary.
ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
ASSESS AND REPAIR DAMAGE TO GAS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm Russian advances.
Assess current disposition of forces in the area.
The situation has CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY, with CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in MULTIPLE AREAS, ESCALATED ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and a CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION. The LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY has SEVERELY COMPROMISED UKRAINE'S ABILITY to MONITOR AND DEFEND AGAINST RUSSIAN ADVANCES. The REPORTED RUSSIAN GAINS in the KURSK REGION are PARTICULARLY CONCERNING and require IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION to PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES.
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.58
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7 (Increased due to more confirming sources.)
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.02 (New belief)
