Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 09:36 UTC
Changes and New Information (09:06 UTC - 09:36 UTC)
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (09:07 UTC): Claims Russian forces are continuing to encircle Ukrainian forces in Konstantinovka, pushing towards Bohatyr to cut off Ukrainian supply lines. Reports fighting in neighboring Alekseevka and Razliv. Claims Russian UAVs are targeting any movement of Ukrainian forces within Konstantinovka itself.
Assessment: This report FURTHER REINFORCES the assessment of a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES around KONSTANTINOVKA. The claimed RUSSIAN ADVANCES TOWARDS BOHATYR are HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT, as this would DIRECTLY THREATEN the MAIN UKRAINIAN SUPPLY ROUTE into the area. The use of DRONES TO TARGET ANY MOVEMENT within KONSTANTINOVKA suggests a HIGH LEVEL OF RUSSIAN SURVEILLANCE and a POTENTIAL SIEGE SITUATION.
DAMAGE TO ELECTRICAL AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Дневник Десантника (09:08 UTC): Claims damage to a 10/6 kV "Perekhodnaya" electrical substation supplying the Pryluky airfield in the Chernihiv region, resulting in a complete power outage. Also claims critical damage to the closed switchgear and transformer of the PS-110 kV "Malaya Dolina" substation in the Malodolynske area of the Odessa region.
РБК-Україна (09:07 UTC) CONFIRMS attacks on gas production facilities in the Poltava region, with DTEK (energy company) stating that the facilities have ceased operation.
Colonelcassad (09:28 UTC) Reports massive strikes in the Poltava region, including targeting of:
Solokhovskaya TsUPNG (Bilsk).
Semerenkovskoye field (Kovalevka).
GPZ "Olefirovka" (Semerenki).
Kachanovsky gas processing plant (Pogarshchina).
Grebenkovskaya gas compressor station (Vesyoloe).
Assessment: These reports CONFIRM that RUSSIA IS CONTINUING ITS CAMPAIGN to TARGET UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The strikes on GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES in POLTAVA represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION, directly impacting UKRAINE'S DOMESTIC ENERGY PRODUCTION. The DAMAGE TO ELECTRICAL SUBSTATIONSSUPPORTS the assessment of TARGETED ATTACKS aimed at DISRUPTING MILITARY OPERATIONS (Pryluky airfield) and CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (Odessa region). TASS (09:15 UTC): CONFIRMS that Russian forces conducted a group strike with high-precision weapons on energy infrastructure supplying the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
REPORTED CUTTING OF UKRAINIAN SUPPLY ROUTE NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Alex Parker Returns (09:08 UTC): Claims Russian forces have "skillfully cut" the main Ukrainian supply route passing through a wooded area near Sudzha, Kursk region, which Ukrainian forces were using due to the main road being under Russian fire control.
Assessment: This report, IF CONFIRMED, is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. It FURTHER SUPPORTS previous reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION and INDICATES A SEVERE DISRUPTION to UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS in that area. This DIRECTLY IMPACTS UKRAINIAN ABILITY to SUSTAIN OPERATIONS and REINFORCE THEIR POSITIONS.
NEGOTIATION DISCUSSIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
РБК-Україна (09:07 UTC) Claims Orban wants to have a poll in Hungary regarding Ukraine's entrance into the EU.
Assessment: This is a reminder of how complicated international relations are, which can be a distraction for Ukraine from its military goals.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (09:23 UTC): Claims a 300m Russian advance near Skudne, continuing pressure on Dneproenergo. Claims fighting for heights north of Volnoye Pole, aiming to take control of Ukrainian logistical routes. Claims clearing operations southwest of Burlatske and control of two strongholds.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:23 UTC): Reports the destruction of a Stryker APC.
Assessment: These reports SUGGEST CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE and POTENTIAL GAINS in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION. The FOCUS ON CONTROLLING HEIGHTS and LOGISTICAL ROUTES indicates a STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE of ISOLATING UKRAINIAN FORCES in the area.
ТАСС (08:41 UTC): Reports that Maxar Technologies has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.
РБК-Україна (09:21 UTC): CONFIRMS the report, stating that the cutoff is a result of a US government ban on providing intelligence data to Ukraine, affecting both government and private users.
КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (09:27 UTC) States that the lack of free access to the photos helped in tracking enemy accumulation at the tactical level.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with SEVERE CONSEQUENCES for UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES. The LOSS OF ACCESS to MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERYSIGNIFICANTLY IMPAIRS UKRAINE'S ABILITY to MONITOR RUSSIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS, DETECT BUILD-UPS, and ASSESS BATTLEFIELD CONDITIONS. This DIRECTLY IMPACTSUKRAINIAN OPERATIONAL PLANNING and DECISION-MAKING.
OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE:
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (09:09 UTC) Reports on biological experiments conducted on Armenian soil. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the main UKRAINIAN FRONT.
Оперативний ЗСУ (09:11 UTC) Reports that Zelenskiy will meet with the President of South Africa on April 10th. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Alex Parker Returns (09:12 UTC) Claims confusion. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (09:14 UTC) Reports the destruction of a kitchen made by Russians. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
ASTRA (09:15 UTC) Reports on arson in Moscow. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Офіс Генерального прокурора (09:15 UTC) Reports on the arrest of a criminal organization. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Alex Parker Returns (09:21 UTC) Reports that the French prime minister said that Trump is destroying world order. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Олексій Білошицький (09:23 UTC) Shows footage of helping civilians affected by a missile strike. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (09:23 UTC) Reports on the use of FPV drones. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:26 UTC) Reports a threat from enemy UAVs. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
STERNENKO (09:33 UTC) Reports on the number of FPV drones purchased. NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS remains the MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, with REPORTED CUTTING OF A KEY UKRAINIAN SUPPLY ROUTE near SUDZHA. The SITUATION FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES is DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES in POLTAVA, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY.
CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION for UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly PATRIOT, SEVERELY LIMITING their ABILITY TO DEFEND against LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES around KONSTANTINOVKA, with a REPORTED PUSH TOWARDS BOHATYR that THREATENS TO ENCIRCLE UKRAINIAN FORCES.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS targeting SOUTHERN UKRAINE and KHARKIV.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS remains a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT but is OVERSHADOWED by the CRITICAL SHORTAGES in AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
VARIOUS REPORTS on political developments, fundraising efforts, and propaganda messages.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):THIS REMAINS THE TOP PRIORITY.
IMMEDIATELY SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES of SATELLITE IMAGERY from ALLIED NATIONS and COMMERCIAL PROVIDERS.
INCREASE RELIANCE on OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES, including HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, and DRONE RECONNAISSANCE.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENTMITIGATION STRATEGIES to COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF VISUAL INTELLIGENCE, such as INCREASED USE OF ANALYTICAL MODELS and PREDICTIVE ALGORITHMS.
RESPOND TO THE DETERIORATING SITUATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONSSOUTH OF SUDZHA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PROTECT COMMUNICATION LINES.
IMMEDIATELY DEPLOYADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS to VERIFY THE REPORTED CUTTING OF THE SUPPLY ROUTE and ASSESS THE CURRENT SITUATION.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENTCONTINGENCY PLANS for ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY ROUTES and POTENTIAL EVACUATION of UKRAINIAN FORCES if necessary.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from AREAS UNDER THREAT.
RESPOND TO THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY ASSESS the SITUATION AROUND KONSTANTINOVKA and VERIFY THE REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES TOWARDS BOHATYR.
REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and MAINTAIN SUPPLY LINES.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENTCONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL BREAKOUT or WITHDRAWAL if necessary.
ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
ASSESS AND REPAIR DAMAGE TO GAS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.
VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm Russian advances.
Assess current disposition of forces in the area.
The situation has CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY, with CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in MULTIPLE AREAS, ESCALATED ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and a CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION. The LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY has SEVERELY COMPROMISED UKRAINE'S ABILITY to MONITOR AND DEFEND AGAINST RUSSIAN ADVANCES. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THESE MULTIPLE CRISES and PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES.
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.58 (Increased confidence due to confirmation of strikes on multiple gas facilities.)
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.2 (New belief due to multiple reports)
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1 (Reduced slightly due to increased focus on other impacts.)
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08 (Reduced due to focus on overall impact.)
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02 (Further reduction due to strategic implications.)
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02(New belief due to reports of Russian progression)
