Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 09:06 UTC

Changes and New Information (08:36 UTC - 09:06 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK IN KURSK BORDER AREA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (09:04 UTC): Released video showing drone strikes targeting a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. Claims fleeing Ukrainian militants were subsequently targeted in nearby forest belts.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, supporting previous reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES. The use of THERMAL IMAGERY in the video suggests NIGHT OPERATIONS and ADVANCED DRONE CAPABILITIES. The SPECIFIC TARGETING of FLEEING PERSONNEL demonstrates IMPROVED RUSSIAN SURVEILLANCE and RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES in this area. This is a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

2. RUSSIAN MILITARY CLAIMS IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Дневник Десантника (08:59 UTC): Reports raising of a Russian flag in Staraya Sorochina, Kursk region, claiming control. Video provided.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS from multiple sources, including Colonelcassad, of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. The video PROVIDES VISUAL EVIDENCE of RUSSIAN CONTROL in STARAYA SOROCHINA. This is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT and SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT of a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES in this area.

3. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Сили оборони Півдня України (08:51 UTC): Reports overnight air defense activity in southern Ukraine. Claims to have shot down 4 Kalibr cruise missiles, 3 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 15 Shahed drones (plus 2 "drone imitators"). Also claims destruction of a Supercam reconnaissance drone. Reports Russian KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes in Kherson region.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (08:37 UTC): Provides a breakdown of claimed Russian missile and drone launches, matching earlier reports from the Ukrainian Air Force. Specifically highlights the potential NEED FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE to CONSERVE AMMUNITION due to LIMITED SUPPLIES, particularly for PATRIOT SYSTEMS.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS, primarily targeting SOUTHERN UKRAINE. The CLAIM OF AMMUNITION SHORTAGES for PATRIOT SYSTEMS is EXTREMELY CONCERNING and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. This SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS UKRAINE'S ABILITY to DEFEND AGAINST LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS. The REPORT OF KAB STRIKES in KHERSON indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR POWER in that region.

4. AFTERMATH OF ATTACKS ON UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (08:37 UTC): Reports on a fire at a critical infrastructure facility in the Ternopil region, caused by a Russian attack. No casualties reported. Photos provided.
   • РБК-Україна (08:41 UTC): Reports the same attack, specifically stating it targeted the GAS TRANSPORTATION NETWORK. Also confirms no casualties. Photos provided.
   • ASTRA (08:45 UTC): Reports on the aftermath of an attack in Kharkiv, with at least eight people injured. Photos provided.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically targeting GAS FACILITIES. The TERNOPIL ATTACK DIRECTLY IMPACTS GAS TRANSPORT, representing a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION in RUSSIAN TARGETING. The KHARKIV ATTACK demonstrates CONTINUED STRIKES on URBAN AREAS, causing CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.

5. UKRAINIAN SUPPORT PROGRAM FOR VETERANS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (08:30 UTC): Presents support program for veterans.
• Assessment: This program confirms efforts to improve morale and rebuild society.

6. UKRAINIAN SOLDIER'S INTERVIEW (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • 46 окрема аеромобільна бригада ДШВ ЗС України (08:36 UTC): Features a video and an interview with a Ukrainian soldier.
   • Assessment: The video suggests Ukraine is suffering artillery casualties.

7. OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE:

   • Colonelcassad (08:37 UTC): Claims the year 2025 has been declared a year of the fight against LGBT in Turkey.
   • Various social posts from multiple sources.
   • Assessment: NOT IMMEDIATELY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS remains the MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, with CONFIRMED CONTROL of STARAYA SOROCHINA and ONGOING DRONE OPERATIONS. The SITUATION FOR UKRAINIAN FORCES is DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
  • RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS TRANSPORT FACILITIES in TERNOPIL, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY.
  • CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION for UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly PATRIOT, SEVERELY LIMITING their ABILITY TO DEFEND against LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACKS.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS targeting SOUTHERN UKRAINE and KHARKIV.
  • FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS remains a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT but is OVERSHADOWED by the CRITICAL SHORTAGES in AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • VARIOUS REPORTS on political developments, fundraising efforts, and propaganda messages.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): THIS REMAINS THE TOP PRIORITY. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

3. RESPOND TO THE DETERIORATING SITUATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. ADDITIONAL EMPHASIS should be placed on:

   • REINFORCING DEFENSIVE POSITIONS SOUTH OF SUDZHA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PROTECT COMMUNICATION LINES.
   • PREPARING FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from AREAS UNDER THREAT.

4. ADDRESS THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY REQUEST EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE from ALL ALLIED NATIONS, specifically requesting ADDITIONAL PATRIOT MISSILES and OTHER AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT A RATIONING STRATEGY for EXISTING AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION, PRIORITIZING THE DEFENSE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS.
   • EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE AIR DEFENSE SOLUTIONS, including INCREASED USE OF ELECTRONIC WARFARE and MOBILE FIRE UNITS.

5. ASSESS AND REPAIR DAMAGE TO GAS TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ENGINEERING TEAMS to ASSESS THE DAMAGE to the GAS TRANSPORT NETWORK in TERNOPIL.
   • IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY REPAIRS to RESTORE GAS FLOW as QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.
   • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for ALTERNATIVE GAS SUPPLIES in case of FURTHER DISRUPTIONS.

6. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND.

The situation has CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY, with CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, ESCALATED ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and a CRITICAL SHORTAGE OF AIR DEFENSE AMMUNITION. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THESE MULTIPLE CRISES and PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES. The LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY, combined with the AMMUNITION SHORTAGES, has SEVERELY COMPROMISED UKRAINE'S ABILITY to MONITOR AND DEFEND AGAINST RUSSIAN ADVANCES.