Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 08:36 UTC
Changes and New Information (08:06 UTC - 08:36 UTC)
RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE MINISTRY REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (08:19 UTC): Reports exercises for a surface-to-surface missile cruiser named Marshal Ustinov, where they overwhelm targets of a mock enemy deployed on the coast, and countering uncrewed surface vehicles.
Assessment: This corroborates with the video presented, highlighting training.
WarGonzo (08:31 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (08:07 UTC): Reinforces the claims that Maxar Technologies has stopped providing access to satellite imagery.
Assessment: This is now confirmed by MULTIPLE INDEPENDENT SOURCES, including PRO-RUSSIAN and UKRAINIAN outlets. This SERIOUSLY IMPAIRSUKRAINE'S ABILITY to MONITOR RUSSIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS, IDENTIFY TARGETS, and ASSESS BATTLEFIELD CONDITIONS. This constitutes a MAJOR CHANGE IN THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT.
FRENCH MIRAGE FIGHTER JETS PARTICIPATE IN AIR DEFENSE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (08:32 UTC), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (08:24 UTC), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (08:29 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (08:29 UTC): Confirms that French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, recently delivered to Ukraine, participated in repelling a Russian air attack for the first time.
РБК-Україна (08:24 UTC): Shows the aftermath of the Poltava attacks.
Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in UKRAINE'S AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES. The INTEGRATION OF ALLIED AIRCRAFT into ACTIVE COMBAT OPERATIONS demonstrates INCREASED INTEROPERABILITY and WESTERN SUPPORT.
UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS ON MISSILE AND DRONE INTERCEPTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (08:24 UTC), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (08:29 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (08:29 UTC), РБК-Україна (08:26 UTC): Reports on a large-scale Russian attack overnight involving missiles and drones. Key figures:
261 total aerial attack vehicles (67 missiles, 194 drones/drone-imitators)
Assessment: This report confirms a MAJOR RUSSIAN AIR ASSAULT targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES. While UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES intercepted a SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THREATS, a SUBSTANTIAL PORTION still REACHED THEIR TARGETS or were NOT INTERCEPTED. The claim of 10 MISSILES FAILING to reach their targets REQUIRES FURTHER INVESTIGATION (potential technical malfunction, electronic warfare, or successful Ukrainian countermeasures).
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK REGION CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (08:33 UTC), Два майора (08:12 UTC): Claims continued deterioration of the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, south of Sudzha. Reports raising of a Russian flag in Staraya Sorochina.
Assessment: These reports REINFORCE PREVIOUS CLAIMS of SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. The REPEATED MENTION of COMMUNICATION ISSUES for UKRAINIAN FORCES near SUDZHA is EXTREMELY CONCERNING. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION, but the CONSISTENCY ACROSS MULTIPLE REPORTS suggests a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINE.
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE CLAIMS CONTROL OF KEY AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (08:17): Claims Russian flag raised in Staraya Sorochina, claiming control.
Assessment: These claims REINFORCE PREVIOUS REPORTS of SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION.
OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE:
Рыбарь (08:08 UTC): Discusses the division between Western Europe and Eastern Europe in terms of their views on the Russian threat.
ТАСС (08:10 UTC): Reports that the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has opened a criminal case regarding terrorism after the killings of civilians in the village of Pogrebki, Kursk region.
Kotsnews (08:27 UTC): Reports on a fundraising effort to support a Russian artillery regiment in the Konstantinovka direction.
Воин DV (08:30 UTC): Presents an interview with a UAV operator from a Russian unit operating in the Zaporozhye direction.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (08:30 UTC): Presents support program for veterans.
Mash на Донбассе (08:30 UTC): Reports on two dealers from Luhansk who sold drugs.
Alex Parker Returns (08:20 UTC): Propaganda message.
Assessment: These reports provide ADDITIONAL CONTEXT but do NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER the OVERALL SITUATION ASSESSMENT.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, with MULTIPLE REPORTS indicating a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES, especially near SUDZHA. POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT remains a MAJOR THREAT.
LARGE-SCALE RUSSIAN MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACK targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, primarily GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES. While UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES intercepted a SIGNIFICANT NUMBER of threats, a SUBSTANTIAL PORTION were NOT INTERCEPTED.
HIGH PRIORITY:
FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS in UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE, demonstrating INCREASED INTEROPERABILITY and WESTERN SUPPORT.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
CONTINUED RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY reported on multiple fronts.
Various reports on political developments, fundraising efforts, and propaganda messages.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
ADDRESS THE LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):THIS IS THE TOP PRIORITY.
IMMEDIATELY IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY PLANS to SECURE ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. This includes CONTACTING ALL ALLIED NATIONS (UK, France, Germany, etc.) and EXPLORING COMMERCIAL PROVIDERS.
PRIORITIZE IMAGERY COVERAGE of the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, CHASIV YAR, and other AREAS OF ACTIVE RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
DEVELOP WORKAROUNDS to MITIGATE THE IMPACT of the IMAGERY LOSS, such as INCREASED USE OF DRONE RECONNAISSANCE and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.
URGENTLY ASSESS AND RESPOND TO THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (excluding satellite imagery, if unavailable) to VERIFY THE EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE and the STATUS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES.
PRIORITIZE COMMUNICATION with UKRAINIAN COMMAND in the AFFECTED AREA to COORDINATE A RESPONSE.
PREPARE FOR IMMEDIATE DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and AVOID ENCIRCLEMENT.
CONSIDER OPTIONS FOR A CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL if necessary, PRIORITIZING THE SAFETY OF PERSONNEL.
ANALYZE THE RUSSIAN MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Assess the damage to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES.
Investigate the reports of MISSILES FAILING to reach their targets.
Evaluate the effectiveness of UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES and IDENTIFY AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT.
Analyze the implications of the FIRST USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Expect continued Russian missile and drone attacks.
Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure.
ADDRESS THE ENERGY CRISIS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue efforts to REPAIR DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE.
Implement measures to CONSERVE ENERGY.
The situation has DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY with the CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY and the CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. The LARGE-SCALE RUSSIAN MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACK further INCREASES THE PRESSURE on UKRAINE. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THESE CHALLENGES and PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES.
