Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 08:06 UTC
Changes and New Information (07:37 UTC - 08:06 UTC)
KURSK REGION / SUMY OBLAST BORDER FIGHTING INTENSIFIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (08:03 UTC), Два майора (08:04 UTC): Report fighting near Basovka, Sumy Oblast (Ukraine). Claims of Ukrainian forces transitioning to defense, using reserves, artillery, and UAVs. Claims Russian forces have cut off the Ukrainian grouping near Sudzha, leaving only infantry retreat options.
Z комитет + карта СВО (07:34 UTC) Showed map earlier indicating progress in this same area (Sverdlikovo, Sudzha, Plekhovo).
Сливочный каприз (07:52 UTC): Reports Russian flag-raising in Staraya Sorochina, claiming over 700 meters of advance. Includes video of flag-raising and destroyed settlement, possibly near Nikolaevka.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:27 UTC): Earlier report claiming major Russian breakthrough and cutting off of Ukrainian forces, citing Ukrainian DeepState analysts.
*ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS* (07:00 UTC): Similar earlier report.
Assessment:CONSISTENT REPORTS from MULTIPLE SOURCES, including both RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN, indicate MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. The REPEATED CLAIM of CUTTING OFF UKRAINIAN FORCES near SUDZHA is EXTREMELY SERIOUS and NOW SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE INDEPENDENT REPORTS. The reported SHIFT TO DEFENSIVE POSTURE by UKRAINIAN FORCES and the use of RESERVES suggests SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE. The FLAG-RAISING IN STARAYA SOROCHINA (if verified) provides VISUAL EVIDENCE of a RUSSIAN ADVANCE. The POTENTIAL FOR A "LARGE CAULDRON" (encirclement) is INCREASING RAPIDLY. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to VERIFY THE EXTENT OF THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE and PREVENT A COMPLETE ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Krasnolimansk direction (towards Zelena Dolyna from Ivanivka).
Near Siversk (west of Bilohorivka towards Hryhorivka).
Chasiv Yar (mechanized attack, claiming positions in the "Western" microdistrict). Confirmed in the previous report.
Near Horlivka (Ukrainian counterattacks in the "Zabalka" area of southern Dzerzhynsk).
Krasnoarmeisk area (claimed control of Zelene Pole and Baranovka, restored positions in Pishchane; Ukrainian attacks near Yelyzavetivka and Shevchenko outskirts).
Near Velyka Novosilka (claimed control of Burlatske, advance into Pryvilne, attacks on Rozdolne-Rozliv line).
Assessment: These reports, COMBINED WITH EARLIER INFORMATION, paint a picture of a BROAD RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE across MULTIPLE AXES OF ADVANCE. The CLAIMED GAINS are SIGNIFICANT, particularly in CHASIV YAR, KRASNOARMEISK AREA, and VELYKA NOVOSILKA AREA. REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION, but the CONSISTENCY ACROSS MULTIPLE REPORTS suggests a MAJOR RUSSIAN PUSH.
CONTINUED TARGETING OF UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (07:54 UTC): Reports the 6th attack on energy facilities in the Odesa region in the last 2.5 weeks, with the 4th consecutive night of strikes on DTEK facilities.
ТАСС (07:29 UTC): Confirms damage to gas transport infrastructure of "Naftogaz of Ukraine."
РБК-Україна (07:06): Confirmed earlier report of 2 out of 6 missiles, striking gas transportation infrastructure in Ternopil Oblast.
Colonelcassad (08:00): Claims massive fires in the Poltava Oblast.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:47 UTC): States there was an earthquake.
Assessment:CONFIRMED AND CONTINUED RUSSIAN STRATEGY of TARGETING UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The REPEATED STRIKES on ODESA REGION facilities and the CONFIRMED DAMAGE to GAS TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE are EXTREMELY SERIOUS, threatening UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY and CIVILIAN WELL-BEING. This REQUIRES URGENT ACTION to PROTECT REMAINING INFRASTRUCTURE and MITIGATE THE IMPACT on the POPULATION.
Два майора (07:40 UTC), Colonelcassad (07:32), Оперативний ЗСУ (07:20 UTC): Multiple reports claim Maxar Technologies has stopped providing access to satellite imagery services for Ukraine due to an administrative request from the US government.
Assessment: This is now supported by multiple independent sources, it's probably correct. This SERIOUSLY IMPAIRSUKRAINE'S ABILITY to MONITOR RUSSIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS, IDENTIFY TARGETS, and ASSESS BATTLEFIELD CONDITIONS. URGENT ACTION is needed to CONFIRM THIS REPORT and, if accurate, to FIND ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UK INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT CONTINUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
STERNENKO (07:40), Оперативний ЗСУ (07:49): Cites The Guardian reporting the UK will continue to provide intelligence to Ukraine despite the US suspension. States UK intelligence is less effective and smaller in scale, but will support early warning systems and deep strikes.
Assessment: This indicates the UK may be stepping up to partly fill the void from the reduction of intelligence sharing from the US.
AIR ALERTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (08:04 UTC): Reports an enemy UAV near Sumy.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:50): Issued a missile alert in the Kherson Oblast.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:12 UTC): Reports that the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts are under threat.
Assessment:CONTINUED AERIAL THREAT requires CONSTANT VIGILANCE and AIR DEFENSE READINESS.
*РБК-Україна* (07:45): Reports that the number of casualties has increased to 8.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE and POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. MULTIPLE REPORTS confirm INTENSE FIGHTING and SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS, with UKRAINIAN FORCES reportedly CUT OFF near SUDZHA.
CONTINUED AND SYSTEMATIC RUSSIAN TARGETING of UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, causing WIDESPREAD DAMAGE and THREATENING ENERGY SECURITY.
CONFIRMED loss of access to MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY, SEVERELY IMPAIRING UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES.
HIGH PRIORITY:
BROAD RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE reported across MULTIPLE FRONTS, with CLAIMED GAINS in CHASIV YAR, KRASNOARMEISK AREA, and VELYKA NOVOSILKA AREA.
CONTINUED AERIAL THREAT from DRONES AND MISSILES.
Number of casualties increases to 8 in Harkiv.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
UK to continue intelligence support.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT NEAR KURSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to VERIFY THE EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE and the STATUS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES near SUDZHA.
Assess the feasibility of REINFORCING or EXTRACTING the UKRAINIAN GROUPING.
Prepare for immediate defensive operations to PREVENT A COMPLETE ENCIRCLEMENT and LOSS OF FORCES.
Consider options for a controlled withdrawal if necessary, PRIORITIZING THE SAFETY OF PERSONNEL.
Communicate directly with UKRAINIAN COMMAND in the AFFECTED AREA to COORDINATE ACTIONS.
URGENTLY SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Immediately contact allied nations (UK, France, Germany, etc.) to REQUEST ACCESS to their SATELLITE IMAGERY.
Explore commercial satellite imagery providers as a TEMPORARY SOLUTION.
Prioritize imagery coverage of the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, CHASIV YAR, and other AREAS OF ACTIVE RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
REINFORCE DEFENSES AND PREPARE COUNTERATTACKS WHERE FEASIBLE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Assess the situation on ALL FRONTS and IDENTIFY AREAS where UKRAINIAN FORCES can HOLD THE LINE or LAUNCH COUNTERATTACKS.
Prioritize defenses around KEY STRATEGIC LOCATIONS such as CHASIV YAR.
Exploit any opportunities to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and INFLICT CASUALTIES.
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain HIGH ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS due to CONTINUED DRONE AND MISSILE THREATS.
Prioritize interception of TARGETS threatening POPULATION CENTERS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
ADDRESS THE ENERGY CRISIS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue to prioritize the PROTECTION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
Expedite repair efforts to RESTORE DAMAGED FACILITIES.
Implement measures to CONSERVE ENERGY and MITIGATE THE IMPACT on the POPULATION.
The situation has deteriorated significantly with the CONFIRMED AND WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ADVANCES, particularly the POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT near SUDZHA. The LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY is a MAJOR BLOW to UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE. The CONTINUED TARGETING OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE is creating a HUMANITARIAN CRISIS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to STABILIZE THE SITUATION, PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES, and MITIGATE THE IMPACT on the POPULATION. CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES is ESSENTIAL.
