Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 07:36 UTC

Changes and New Information (07:06 UTC - 07:36 UTC)

1. TERNOPIL OBLAST GAS INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (07:06 UTC): Reports that 2 out of 6 missiles struck gas transportation infrastructure in Ternopil Oblast. The other 4 missiles were shot down by air defense. A fire was extinguished, but there is a risk of pressure drop in the network for many settlements. Work is focused on social infrastructure, and residents are urged to limit gas consumption.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS another targeted attack on UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The SPECIFIC TARGETING OF GAS TRANSPORTATION is CRITICAL, as it disrupts gas supplies. The RISK OF PRESSURE DROP is SERIOUS, potentially impacting heating and industrial output. URGENT REPAIRS AND MITIGATION EFFORTS are required. This FURTHER REINFORCES the RUSSIAN STRATEGY of WEAKENING UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCE WEST OF CHASIV YAR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (07:10 UTC): Claims Russian paratrooper units (up to a battalion) attacked in the western part of Chasiv Yar, west of the Dniprovsky pond, and secured positions in the settlement of Zapadny. Claims 25 pieces of equipment were used, with 16 reportedly damaged (according to video from the Ukrainian side). Claims that Russian forces are securing and clearing the western part of Chasiv Yar.
   • Военкор Котенок (07:10 UTC): Shows drone video.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM of a RUSSIAN ADVANCE in CHASIV YAR, a KEY STRATEGIC LOCATION. If accurate, this represents a MAJOR GAIN for RUSSIAN FORCES and INCREASES PRESSURE on the UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE LINES. The claim of securing the settlement of Zapadny is CRITICAL and REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. The reported loss of 16 pieces of equipment is HIGH, but the claimed success suggests RUSSIAN FORCES were willing to ACCEPT SIGNIFICANT LOSSES to achieve their objective.

3. CLAIMED TRUMP THREATS TO ZELENSKY (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:07 UTC): Cites Washington Post claiming the Trump administration threatened the Zelensky team with revealing corruption and even contacted Zaluzhny, all to force Kyiv to sign an agreement on mineral resources.
   • Assessment: This is LIKELY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA aimed at DISCREDITING the UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT and EXPLOITING potential divisions between UKRAINE and the US. REQUIRES CAREFUL CONSIDERATION and VERIFICATION.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CUTTING OFF UKRAINIAN FORCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:27 UTC): Claims that Russian forces cut off the main part of the Ukrainian bridgehead and broke through to the Ukrainian border. Claims all roads to Sudzha are cut off or under fire control. Cites Ukrainian DeepState analysts.
     • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:00 UTC): Claims that Russian forces have cut off most of the Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, using North Korean soldiers.
   • Assessment: These CONFLICTING REPORTS (one claiming North Korean involvement, the other not) REINFORCE PREVIOUS CLAIMS of a MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE near the KURSK BORDER. The claim of CUTTING OFF UKRAINIAN FORCES and CONTROLLING ROADS is EXTREMELY SERIOUS and, if accurate, represents a MAJOR SHIFT in the BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS. REQUIRES URGENT AND IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION.

5. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:04 UTC): Claims UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE COUNTERATTACKING NEAR POKROVSK AND TORETSK, and that "there is more and more evidence that the great Russian offensive is running out of steam."
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM, suggesting UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE is SLOWING DOWN or STOPPING the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in these areas. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The BBC has not confirmed this information.

6. SLOVYANSK SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (07:00 UTC): Reports 7 people injured, including two young girls (3 and 4 years old). Claims the use of KAB guided bombs. Over 30 houses were damaged.
   • Assessment: Confirmed attack and casualties.

7. MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS RESTRICTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (07:20): Reports that Maxar Technologies has stopped providing access to satellite imagery services for Ukraine due to an administrative request from the US government. Claims this is another step in the suspension of intelligence provision from the USA to Ukraine.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION. If true, the LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY is a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES. This SERIOUSLY IMPAIRS UKRAINE'S ABILITY to MONITOR RUSSIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS, IDENTIFY TARGETS, and ASSESS BATTLEFIELD CONDITIONS. URGENT ACTION is needed to CONFIRM THIS REPORT and, if accurate, to FIND ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.

8. RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENTS (KURSK OBLAST) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • *Z комитет + карта СВО* (07:00 UTC): Claims Russian forces advanced in the areas of Lebedevka, Nikol'skoye, and Malaya Loknya.
     

   • Z комитет + карта СВО (07:34): Shows a map.

   • **Assesment**: Claims Russian forces advanced. Requires verification.
     

9. DZHERZHYNSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • *Дневник Десантника* (07:22): Reports that Russian forces attacked with Krasnopol shells in the North of Dzerzhynsk. Also reports that Ukrainian forces attacked, and claims that Ukrainian forces have been driven out of the region.
     

   • Assessment: Requires confirmation.

10. ODESA STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • *Офіс Генерального прокурора* (06:48): Reports that on March 6th, late in the evening, Russian armed forces attacked Odesa with strike drones, targeting energy and civilian infrastructure. At least 10 houses, farm buildings, a gas pipeline and cars in the suburbs of Odesa were damaged and destroyed. Over 2,500 residents were left without electricity. On March 7th, a missile strike damaged 16 private houses in the Podilsky district of Odesa.
      

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (07:25): Confirms the strike from the previous point.
    • РБК-Україна (07:27): States that there was a fire.
    • Assessment: Confirms widespread damage and destruction.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED another targeted attack on UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The SPECIFIC TARGETING OF GAS TRANSPORTATION is CRITICAL.
  • REPORTED MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE in CHASIV YAR.
  • REPORTED MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH and ADVANCE near the KURSK BORDER, potentially ENCIRCLING the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING. REQUIRES URGENT AND IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN TARGETING of UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES, THREATENING UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY.
  • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • Claim that Russian forces have cut off Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED loss of access to Maxar satellite imagery.
  • CONFIRMED SUBSTANTIAL UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES against RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS in SOUTHERN UKRAINE, destroying 18 SHAHEED DRONES.
  • SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN LOSSES reported in SOUTHERN UKRAINE, including PERSONNEL, VEHICLES, COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT, and SUPPLY DEPOTS.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported SOUTH OF SUDZHA, potentially CUTTING OFF SUPPLIES to the UKRAINIAN GROUPING. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • Continued Russian advancement reported near Lebedevka, Nikol'skoye, and Malaya Loknya.
  • Shelling of Slovyansk, resulting in casualties.
  • Widespread attacks confirmed in Odesa, with damage to homes and infrastructure.

  • Russian advancement reported near Dzerzhynsk.
    

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • Damage from debris in Kyiv Oblast.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • Claimed that Trump threatened Zelensky.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH AND POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT NEAR KURSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH and ADVANCE near the KURSK BORDER.
   • Assess the threat to the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING and DETERMINE if a POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT is IMMINENT.
   • Prepare for potential defensive operations and/or a WITHDRAWAL of the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING if necessary.

3. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN CHASIV YAR (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in CHASIV YAR.
   • Assess the threat to the UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE LINES and DETERMINE if the settlement of ZAPADNY HAS BEEN CAPTURED.
   • Prepare for potential counterattacks.

4. CONFIRM REPORT OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY RESTRICTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately contact US government and military channels to VERIFY the report of RESTRICTED ACCESS to MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
   • If confirmed, urgently seek clarification on the REASONS FOR THE RESTRICTION and the DURATION.
   • Simultaneously, explore and secure alternative sources of HIGH-RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY from OTHER PROVIDERS or ALLIED NATIONS. This is CRITICAL for MAINTAINING SITUATIONAL AWARENESS.

5. VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS NEAR POKROVSK AND TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK.
   • Assess the impact on the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in these areas.
   • If confirmed, identify opportunities to EXPLOIT any UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES.

6. ADDRESS THE CONTINUED THREAT TO UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue to prioritize the PROTECTION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly GAS PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets if available to BOLSTER DEFENSES around CRITICAL ENERGY SITES.
   • Expedite repair efforts to RESTORE DAMAGED FACILITIES. Specifically, ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN TERNOPIL OBLAST.

7. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Continue to prioritize the INTERCEPTION OF RUSSIAN DRONES AND MISSILES.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets if available.

The situation has become EVEN MORE CRITICAL with the CONFIRMED ATTACK ON GAS INFRASTRUCTURE IN TERNOPIL OBLAST and the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN CHASIV YAR. The potential LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY is a MAJOR CONCERN that REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The REPORTED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH near the KURSK BORDER and the POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING remain EXTREME THREATS. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, ACCURATE ANALYSIS, DECISIVE ACTION, and CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES are ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.