Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 07:06 UTC

Changes and New Information (06:36 UTC - 07:06 UTC)

1. SOUTHERN UKRAINE SHAHEED DRONE DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Сили оборони Півдня України (06:37 UTC): Reports that 18 SHAHEED-131/136 DRONES were DESTROYED by air defense units in the operational zone of the "Tavria" Operational Command. RUSSIAN LOSSES in the past 24 hours include: 114 PERSONNEL, 18 VEHICLES, 6 MOTORCYCLES, 3 QUAD BIKES, 3 BOATS, 3 BUGGIES, 1 SUPERCAM RECONNAISSANCE DRONE, 1 EW STATION (TRENCH), 1 STARLINK TERMINAL, 1 GENERATOR, 1 SURVEILLANCE CAMERA, 1 SUBSTATION, 5 COMMUNICATION ANTENNAS, and 2 UAV CONTROL ANTENNAS. 59 SHELTERS/BUNKERS and 2 FIELD SUPPLY DEPOTS were DESTROYED/DAMAGED.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS SUBSTANTIAL UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES against RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS in SOUTHERN UKRAINE. The detailed list of RUSSIAN LOSSES is SIGNIFICANT, indicating EFFECTIVE UKRAINIAN TARGETING of both PERSONNEL and EQUIPMENT. The destruction of COMMUNICATION AND CONTROL INFRASTRUCTURE is particularly noteworthy, as it DEGRADES RUSSIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL CAPABILITIES.

2. RUSSIAN URAGAN MLRS ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (06:36 UTC): Shows a video of an Uragan MLRS on missions.
   • Assessment: Confirms the use of Russian MLRS systems.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCE SOUTH OF SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (06:37 UTC): Claims RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF SUDZHA, specifically near KURILOVKA, putting pressure on the Ukrainian grouping's communication lines. Claims that taking full fire control of roads south of Sudzha will lead to the "relatively quick exhaustion" of the Ukrainian grouping.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SUDZHA AREA. The claim of "relatively quick exhaustion" of the Ukrainian grouping suggests a RUSSIAN STRATEGY of CUTTING OFF SUPPLIES and FORCING A WITHDRAWAL. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

4. AIR RAID ALERTS LIFTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:38): The air raid has been canceled across the entire country.

   • **Assessment:** Signals that immediate threat is over.
     

5. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (06:38 UTC): Claims RUSSIAN FORCES BROKE THROUGH THE UKRAINIAN FRONT NEAR KURSK and are THREATENING TO ENCIRCLE THE SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING. Claims Russian forces advanced OVER 5 KILOMETERS in a few days near GUEVOYE. Claims Ukrainian logistics are "effectively completely broken and constantly controlled by the Russians."
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR CLAIM of a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH and ADVANCE near the KURSK BORDER. The claim of a POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING is EXTREMELY SERIOUS and, if accurate, represents a MAJOR SHIFT in the BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS in this area. The claim of broken Ukrainian logistics REINFORCES the RUSSIAN STRATEGY of CUTTING OFF SUPPLIES. REQUIRES URGENT AND IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION.

6. NAFTOGAZ INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKED AGAIN (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (06:41 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (06:45 UTC): Reports RUSSIAN ATTACKS on NAFTOGAZ INFRASTRUCTURE, damaging production facilities involved in gas extraction. No casualties reported. This is the 17TH COMBINED ATTACK on Naftogaz infrastructure.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN TARGETING of UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES. This is a MAJOR CONCERN, as it THREATENS UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY and ECONOMIC STABILITY.

7. TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:46): Reports enemy tactical aviation in the east.
   • Assessment: Suggests a risk.

8. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (06:47): Reports that Russia launches over 100 Shaheds per night, and Ukraine has the capability to take them down, despite the stoppage in aid.

   • **Assessment:** Reports Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
     

9. DAMAGE FROM DEBRIS (KYIV OBLAST) (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (06:48 UTC): Reports damage to a cargo vehicle in the Obukhiv district of Kyiv Oblast due to falling debris from downed aerial targets. Also reports grass fires in the Obukhiv and Boryspil districts due to falling debris.

   • **Assessment:** Confirms limited property damage and fires.
     

10. ODESA STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • *Офіс Генерального прокурора* (06:48): Reports that on March 6th, late in the evening, Russian armed forces attacked Odesa with strike drones, targeting energy and civilian infrastructure. At least 10 houses, farm buildings, a gas pipeline and cars in the suburbs of Odesa were damaged and destroyed. Over 2,500 residents were left without electricity. On March 7th, a missile strike damaged 16 private houses in the Podilsky district of Odesa.
      

    • Assessment: Confirms widespread damage and destruction.

11. KA-52M STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (06:43): Reports Ka-52M striking Ukrainian personnel and a stronghold.
    • Assessment: Confirms use of Ka-52M helicopters.

12. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:00 UTC): Claims UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE COUNTERATTACKING NEAR POKROVSK AND TORETSK, and that "there is more and more evidence that the great Russian offensive is running out of steam."
    • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM, suggesting UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE is SLOWING DOWN or STOPPING the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in these areas. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

13. SLOVYANSK SHELLED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

    • ASTRA (07:00): Reports seven people were injured, including 2 young girls.
    • Assessment: Reports casualties.

14. RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENTS (KURSK OBLAST) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • *Z комитет + карта СВО* (07:00 UTC): Claims Russian forces advanced in the areas of Lebedevka, Nikol'skoye, and Malaya Loknya.
      

    • **Assesment**: Claims Russian forces advanced.
      

15. CLAIM OF CUT OFF UKRAINIAN FORCES (KURSK OBLAST) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (07:00 UTC): Claims that Russian forces have cut off most of the Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, using North Korean soldiers.
    • Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH and ADVANCE near the KURSK BORDER, potentially ENCIRCLING the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING. REQUIRES URGENT AND IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN TARGETING of UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES, THREATENING UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY.
  • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • Claim that Russian forces have cut off Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED SUBSTANTIAL UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES against RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS in SOUTHERN UKRAINE, destroying 18 SHAHEED DRONES.
  • SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN LOSSES reported in SOUTHERN UKRAINE, including PERSONNEL, VEHICLES, COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT, and SUPPLY DEPOTS.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported SOUTH OF SUDZHA, potentially CUTTING OFF SUPPLIES to the UKRAINIAN GROUPING. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • Continued Russian advancement reported near Lebedevka, Nikol'skoye, and Malaya Loknya.
  • Shelling of Slovyansk, resulting in casualties.
  • Widespread attacks confirmed in Odesa, with damage to homes and infrastructure.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED USE of RUSSIAN URAGAN MLRS SYSTEMS.
  • Damage from debris in Kyiv Oblast.
  • Confirmed use of KA-52M helicopters.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • None.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH AND POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT NEAR KURSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH and ADVANCE near the KURSK BORDER.
   • Assess the threat to the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING and DETERMINE if a POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT is IMMINENT.
   • Prepare for potential defensive operations and/or a WITHDRAWAL of the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING if necessary.

3. VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS NEAR POKROVSK AND TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK.
   • Assess the impact on the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in these areas.
   • If confirmed, identify opportunities to EXPLOIT any UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES.

4. ADDRESS THE CONTINUED THREAT TO UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue to prioritize the PROTECTION OF ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly GAS PRODUCTION FACILITIES.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets if available to BOLSTER DEFENSES around CRITICAL ENERGY SITES.
   • Expedite repair efforts to RESTORE DAMAGED FACILITIES.

5. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Continue to prioritize the INTERCEPTION OF RUSSIAN DRONES AND MISSILES.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets if available.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The REPORTED RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH near the KURSK BORDER and the POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of the SUDZHA UKRAINIAN GROUPING represent a MAJOR THREAT that REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE are SERIOUSLY DAMAGING and THREATEN UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECURITY. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK offer a POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY, but REQUIRE VERIFICATION. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, ACCURATE ANALYSIS, AND DECISIVE ACTION are ESSENTIAL.