Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 06:35 UTC

Changes and New Information (06:06 UTC - 06:36 UTC)

1. TERNOPIL OBLAST INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (06:07 UTC): Reports CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE in TERNOPIL OBLAST following explosions. POSSIBLE GAS SUPPLY RESTRICTIONS are reported by the regional military administration head, Negoda.
   • ASTRA (06:15 UTC): Confirms damage to INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES in TERNOPIL and CHERNIGIV OBLASTS.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS that CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically GAS SUPPLY, has been TARGETED AND DAMAGED in TERNOPIL OBLAST. This FURTHER EXPANDS the GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE of the RUSSIAN ATTACKS to WESTERN UKRAINE. This is consistent with the BROADER PATTERN of targeting ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.

2. KYIV AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (06:09 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (06:14 UTC): Report that the AIR RAID ALERT in KYIV CITY has been LIFTED. DRONE THREAT REMAINS in SEVERAL WESTERN OBLASTS.
   • Assessment: While the IMMEDIATE THREAT to KYIV CITY has PASSED, the CONTINUED DRONE THREAT in WESTERN UKRAINE indicates the ATTACKS ARE ONGOING.

3. CHERNIGIV OBLAST STRIKE UPDATE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (06:09 UTC): Confirms DAMAGE to a PRODUCTION FACILITY in PRYUCKY, CHERNIGIV OBLAST, during a NIGHT ATTACK.
   • Assessment: This confirms previous reports and reinforces the attack on Chernigiv Oblast.

4. DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (06:10 UTC): Reports AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST from evening to morning, with 20 TARGETS DESTROYED: 11 MISSILES and 9 DRONES.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANT AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, INTERCEPTING A LARGE NUMBER OF MISSILES AND DRONES. This highlights UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES and the INTENSITY OF THE RUSSIAN ATTACKS in this region.

5. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON BUILDING (SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION) (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Воин DV (06:10 UTC): Reports Russian drone operators of the 29th Army (Group "Vostok") DESTROYED A BUILDING used by Ukrainian infantry as shelter in the SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE and TARGETING OF UKRAINIAN POSITIONS. The video provides VISUAL EVIDENCE of a SUCCESSFUL STRIKE.

6. EARTHQUAKE IN TERNOPIL OBLAST (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • *РБК-Україна* (06:11): Reports a minor earthquake in Ternopil oblast.
     

   • **Assesment:** This information is irrelevant to the conflict.
     

7. UKRAINIAN DRONE UNIT VIDEO (KHARKIV) (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (06:12 UTC): Shows a video featuring a Ukrainian drone unit in the Kharkiv direction.
   • Assessment: This video doesn't change the overall situation, but shows ongoing Ukrainian drone operations.

8. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND TARGETS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • НгП раZVедка (06:12 UTC): Reports CONTINUED MASSIVE STRIKES targeting AIRFIELDS and ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE in the "deep rear" of Ukraine.
   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (06:13 UTC): Claims the MAIN TARGET of the Russian missile attack was GAS and MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE. Mentions MIRGOROD (airbase), POLTAVA, SUMY, and TERNOPIL (gas storage) oblasts as being HIT THE HARDEST. Reports TWO WAVES OF MISSILE LAUNCHES (Kalibr and Kh-101), with a TOTAL OF OVER 35 MISSILES.
   • Assessment: These reports REINFORCE THE NARRATIVE of WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ATTACKS targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly ENERGY AND MILITARY FACILITIES. The mention of SPECIFIC MISSILE TYPES and LAUNCH WAVES adds detail, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The claim of OVER 35 MISSILES is SIGNIFICANT and, if accurate, indicates a MAJOR ESCALATION.

9. RUSSIAN "SOVA-13" DRONE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Басурин о главном (06:12 UTC): Reports on the development of the "Sova-13" reconnaissance drone by the Simbirsk Design Bureau "Piranha". This is new.

   • **Assessment:** Not relevant.
     

10. ODESA STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:16 UTC): Reports a strike on residential buildings in Odesa.
    • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating RUSSIAN ATTACKS are TARGETING CIVILIAN AREAS in ODESA. This INCREASES THE RISK to CIVILIANS and FURTHER ESCALATES the CONFLICT.

11. RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Военкор Котенок (06:17 UTC): Reports Russian advances south of Sudzha.
    • Assessment: This is SIGNIFICANT, reporting a BREAKTHROUGH by RUSSIAN MARINES between GUEVO and KURILOVKA, advancing towards the STATE BORDER and a KEY SUPPLY ROAD for the Ukrainian grouping near SUDZHA. Claims Russian units are approaching BASOVKA, with approximately 12 KM REMAINING to "close the gap." REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

12. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENTS (KURSK OBLAST) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • *Z комитет + карта СВО* (06:19 UTC): Claims Russian forces advanced in the areas of Zhuravki, Kurilovka, and Noven'koye.
      

    • **Assesment**: Claims Russian forces advanced near border.
      

13. ALLEGED UKRAINIAN COMMANDERS ORDERING EXTRAJUDICIAL KILLINGS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (06:28 UTC): Reports Ukrainian commanders ordering killings of surrendering soldiers.
    • Assessment: Requires verification.

14. RUSSIAN OPERATIONS (KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (06:28 UTC): Reports Russian operations in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
    • Assessment: Claims continued Russian advances and destruction of Ukrainian equipment and personnel. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

15. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE (ZAPORIZHZHIA) (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (06:31): Shows video.
    • Assessment: Another example of continued drone warfare.

16. KHARKIV STRIKE UPDATE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (06:35): Reports ISKANDER MISSILE STRIKE on KHARKIV at 06:33. CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGED. RESTORATION OF HEAT SUPPLY to 8 APARTMENT BUILDINGS (670 residents) is UNDERWAY. 5 CARS and 10 GARAGES caught fire. OVER 30 PRIVATE HOUSES DAMAGED. 7 PEOPLE INJURED, 2 HOSPITALIZED. Reports RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on KUPYANSK at 12:30 on March 6th using a "Molniya" drone.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS and PROVIDES DETAILS on the KHARKIV STRIKE, including the USE OF AN ISKANDER MISSILE, DAMAGE TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND CIVILIAN PROPERTY, and CASUALTIES. The SCALE OF THE DAMAGE is SIGNIFICANT.

17. REPORTED UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

* *Сили оборони Півдня України* (06:22 UTC): Reports one person injured in Kherson region due to Russian aggression.

* **Assessment**:  Reports injuries.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED DAMAGE to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE in TERNOPIL OBLAST, with POTENTIAL GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS.
  • ISKANDER MISSILE STRIKE on KHARKIV confirmed, causing SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and CIVILIAN PROPERTY, with 7 INJURED and 2 HOSPITALIZED.
  • REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES near SUDZHA, potentially THREATENING A KEY UKRAINIAN SUPPLY ROAD. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • STRIKE ON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS in ODESA confirmed.
  • CONFIRMED DAMAGE to a PRODUCTION FACILITY in PRYUCKY, CHERNIGIV OBLAST.
  • CONFIRMED SIGNIFICANT AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, intercepting 11 MISSILES and 9 DRONES.
  • CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ATTACKS targeting ENERGY and MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE, with OVER 35 MISSILES reportedly launched.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS reported in the KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • DRONE THREAT persists in WESTERN UKRAINE.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE confirmed, with a BUILDING USED BY UKRAINIAN INFANTRY DESTROYED in the SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION.
  • CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS confirmed in KHARKIV and ZAPORIZHZHIA directions.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • Alleged Ukrainian commanders ordering killings of surrendering soldiers (needs verification).

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. RESPOND TO INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE IN TERNOPIL AND KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ASSESS DAMAGE to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE in TERNOPIL and KHARKIV.
   • IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY REPAIR PLANS to RESTORE GAS AND HEAT SUPPLY as quickly as possible.
   • PROVIDE ASSISTANCE to AFFECTED CIVILIANS, including MEDICAL CARE, SHELTER, and ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES.

3. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH and ADVANCES near SUDZHA.
   • Assess the threat to the KEY UKRAINIAN SUPPLY ROAD.
   • Prepare for potential defensive operations to COUNTER any RUSSIAN ADVANCE in this area.

4. ADDRESS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, particularly in WESTERN OBLASTS where the DRONE THREAT PERSISTS.
   • Continue to prioritize the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, especially ENERGY FACILITIES.
   • Gather intelligence on RUSSIAN LAUNCH SITES and TACTICS to IMPROVE INTERCEPTION CAPABILITIES.

5. ADDRESS THE STRIKE ON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Provide assistance to AFFECTED CIVILIANS.
   • Document the damage and GATHER EVIDENCE of POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE across MULTIPLE REGIONS, including WESTERN UKRAINE, represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. The CONFIRMED USE OF AN ISKANDER MISSILE in KHARKIV and the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES near SUDZHA are MAJOR CONCERNS. IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION is required to ADDRESS THE CONSEQUENCES of these ATTACKS, MITIGATE FUTURE RISKS, and MAINTAIN UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.