Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 05:06 UTC

Changes and New Information (04:36 UTC - 05:06 UTC)

1. CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS, UPDATED TRAJECTORIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (04:37 UTC): Reports a drone approaching Ternopil. MAY BE LOUD.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:39 UTC): Provides updated drone trajectories:

     • North of Kharkiv Oblast, heading south (towards Kharkiv city).
     • North of Poltava Oblast, heading south.
     • North, east, and central parts of Vinnytsia Oblast, heading west.
     • North of Kyiv Oblast, heading southwest.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:42 UTC): Provides updated drone trajectories:

   • South of Zhytomyr, west.
     

   • South of Khmelnytsky, southwest.
     

   • Central Ternopil region, northwest (city of Ternopil).

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (05:00 UTC): Drone alerts to Vinnytsia and Voronovytsia.

   • Assessment: The DRONE THREAT PERSISTS and is WIDESPREAD, affecting MULTIPLE REGIONS. The UPDATED TRAJECTORIES highlight POTENTIAL TARGETS including KHARKIV CITY, POLTAVA, VINNYTSIA, and WESTERN UKRAINE (specifically TERNOPIL and the area around it).

2. CONFIRMED EXPLOSIONS IN IVANO-FRANKIVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (04:37 UTC): Reports sounds of explosions heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS that STRIKES ARE OCCURRING in IVANO-FRANKIVSK OBLAST, aligning with PREVIOUS REPORTS of MISSILE MOVEMENT towards that REGION.

3. KHARKIV STRIKE DETAILS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (04:38 UTC): Confirmed a hit in the Kyivskyi district.

   • РБК-Україна (05:01 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (05:03 UTC): Reports the strike hit civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv. A woman was rescued from the rubble; she is alive and being examined by doctors. Search and rescue operations are ongoing. Four people are confirmed injured. A fire broke out at the impact site. An apartment building nearby was damaged, and residents are being evacuated.

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:50 UTC): Reports the Kharkiv strike was ballistic, hitting a residential area.

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:56 UTC): Confirmed that the strike hit an apartment building and caused a fire.

   • Assessment: The KHARKIV STRIKE is CONFIRMED to have HIT CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, including an APARTMENT BUILDING. CASUALTIES ARE CONFIRMED. The USE OF BALLISTIC MISSILES is NOTEWORTHY. This FURTHER REINFORCES the SEVERE THREAT to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.

4. UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORT LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

• РБК-Україна (04:54 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (05:00 UTC), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (04:51 UTC): Reports that the Ukrainian forces took out another 1150 Russian soldiers, 23 armored vehicles, 72 vehicles and 95 UAVs.
  • Assessment: This adds to the trend of Russian forces loosing equipment, impacting Russian capabilities in the medium/long term.

5. ENERGY AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE UNDER ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (04:42 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:46 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (04:49 UTC): Reports quoting Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko confirming that energy and gas infrastructure in various regions of Ukraine are under massive attack. Energy workers are working to eliminate the consequences where possible.

   • Два майора (04:52 UTC): Reports that according to Ukrainian channels, the main goal of the attack was gas and military infrastructure, with Mirgorod, Poltava, Sumy and Ternopil the most affected regions.

   • Assessment: This OFFICIALLY CONFIRMS that ENERGY AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE are PRIMARY TARGETS of the ONGOING ATTACKS. This REINFORCES PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS.

6. RUSSIAN OPERATIONS ON THE ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (04:45 UTC): Reports that the 291st regiment is destroying enemy infantry on the Zaporizhzhia front. Drone operators of the 291st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Division near Novodanilovka are supporting assault attacks, destroying infantry and Ukrainian Armed Forces positions.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED FIGHTING on the ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT, with RUSSIAN FORCES using DRONES to SUPPORT OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS.

7. RUSSIAN FORCES ELIMINATED 50 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS NEAR TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED).

   • No change.

8. OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:39 UTC): Reports a high-speed target heading towards Sumy from the Belgorod region.
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (05:01 UTC): Reports that a bill to give veteran status to "Storm Z" is in the government.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS, with UPDATED TRAJECTORIES indicating THREATS to MULTIPLE REGIONS, including KHARKIV CITY, POLTAVA, VINNYTSIA, and WESTERN UKRAINE.
  • CONFIRMED STRIKES in IVANO-FRANKIVSK OBLAST.
  • KHARKIV STRIKE CONFIRMED to have HIT CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, including an APARTMENT BUILDING, with CONFIRMED CASUALTIES. USE OF BALLISTIC MISSILES.
  • ENERGY AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE are CONFIRMED PRIMARY TARGETS of the ONGOING ATTACKS.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORT HIGH LOSSES TO THE RUSSIAN FORCES. This would impact Russian capabilities.
  • ONGOING MISSILE ATTACK FOCUSED ON WESTERN UKRAINE, specifically TERNOPIL and IVANO-FRANKIVSK OBLASTS. CONFIRMED STRIKES in TERNOPIL and KHARKIV. TARGETING SHIFTED towards MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
  • DRONE ATTACK on KHARKIV.
  • AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS ACTIVE, but UNDER CONTINUED PRESSURE.
  • CONFIRMED ATTACK on a GAS PIPELINE in TERNOPIL.
  • INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS WITH GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS IN DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED). Remains the same.
  • CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED). Remains the same, with MULTIPLE DRONES REPORTED.
  • REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED). Requires INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
  • SU-57 DEPLOYMENT FROM AKHTUBINSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED). Potential for GUIDED AERIAL MISSILE STRIKES in NORTHERN UKRAINE.
  • MiG-31K LANDED, reducing the IMMEDIATE THREAT of a KINZHAL STRIKE, but the POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE LAUNCHES REMAINS.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES ELIMINATED 50 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS NEAR TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED).* Remains the same.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

• Reports that Russian forces are fighting in the Zaporizhzhia front. * POLAND DEPLOYED FIGHTERS, indicating INCREASED REGIONAL TENSIONS. * Russian claims on the "Sky Shield" plan by the NATO. * Confirmation of the deployment and the capabilities of the "Granat-4" UAV. * 3 missile carriers in the Black Sea, with a total of 8 Kalibrs.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. ADDRESS THE CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in AREAS WITH REPORTED DRONE ACTIVITY.
   • ISSUE CONTINUOUS WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in THREATENED AREAS to SEEK SHELTER.
   • PRIORITIZE INTERCEPTION of INCOMING DRONES.
   • DEPLOY COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES where available.

3. RESPOND TO THE KHARKIV STRIKE AND IVANO-FRANKIVSK EXPLOSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • CONTINUE SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS in KHARKIV.
   • PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to ALL INJURED.
   • ASSESS DAMAGE to INFRASTRUCTURE in both KHARKIV and IVANO-FRANKIVSK.
   • IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY REPAIR PLANS where necessary.
   • GATHER EVIDENCE of POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES in KHARKIV.

4. ADDRESS THE ONGOING ATTACKS ON ENERGY AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • CONTINUE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT and REPAIR EFFORTS.
   • IMPLEMENT MEASURES to MITIGATE DISRUPTIONS to ENERGY AND GAS SUPPLIES.
   • PRIORITIZE PROTECTION of CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.

5. MONITOR FOR FURTHER HIGH-SPEED TARGETS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in SUMY OBLAST, following the REPORT OF A HIGH-SPEED TARGET.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS, the CONFIRMED STRIKES in IVANO-FRANKIVSK and KHARKIV (targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE), and the ONGOING ATTACKS ON ENERGY AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE pose SEVERE THREATS. IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION is required to PROTECT CIVILIANS, MITIGATE DAMAGE, and MAINTAIN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES. The USE OF BALLISTIC MISSILES in KHARKIV is NOTEWORTHY and CONCERNING.