ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:07 UTC): Confirms the continued missile threat from Tu-95MS launches, urging people to remain in shelters.
Николаевский Ванёк (04:08 UTC): Reports all remaining missiles concentrated in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, heading west. ELEVATED ROCKET THREAT FOR ALL WESTERN REGIONS.
Николаевский Ванёк (04:12 UTC): All remaining missiles have moved to the south of Khmelnytskyi Oblast, course west.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:14 UTC): Missiles from the south of Vinnytsia Oblast heading to the south of Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
Николаевский Ванёк (04:19 UTC): A couple of missiles south of Khmelnytskyi, heading towards Ternopil Oblast. One missile near Kamianets-Podilskyi, heading towards Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:20 UTC): Reports missiles in the south of Khmelnytskyi.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:21 UTC): Missiles in the south of Khmelnytskyi Oblast, course northwest/west (Ternopil Oblast).
Николаевский Ванёк (04:23 UTC): Several missiles heading towards Ternopil. Loud explosions possible in 3-5 minutes.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:24 UTC): Ternopil! Shelter! Missile in your direction!
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:27 UTC): Reports explosions in Ternopil.
Николаевский Ванёк (04:27 UTC): One missile flying north of Kolomyia, course west towards the mountains.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:29 UTC): Ivano-Frankivsk! Missile approaching from the southeast!
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:30 UTC): Missile heading to Ivano-Frankivsk.
Николаевский Ванёк (04:32 UTC): Reports missile strikes concluded. Remaining drones: One south of Ternopil (westbound), one south of Khmelnytskyi, four north of Vinnytsia (westbound), six east of Vinnytsia, two heading towards/through Bila Tserkva.
* РБК-Україна (04:32 UTC): Reports a powerful explosion in Kharkiv.
*Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА* (04:33 UTC): Reports about the explosion and that the citizens should take shelter.
*Николаевский Ванёк* (04:33 UTC): A drone is heading to Kharkiv.
* *Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine* (04:34 UTC): A drone is heading from north to Kharkiv.
*РБК-Україна* (04:34 UTC): Confirms the explosion in Kharkiv.
Два майора (04:12 UTC), ТАСС (04:12 UTC), ASTRA (04:19 UTC): Reports that air defense systems have shot down 39 Ukrainian UAVs.
Assessment: The MISSILE ATTACK CONTINUES, with a CLEAR FOCUS ON WESTERN UKRAINE, specifically TERNOPIL and IVANO-FRANKIVSK OBLASTS. The CONFIRMED EXPLOSIONS in TERNOPIL and KHARKIV indicate SUCCESSFUL STRIKES. The SHIFT IN TARGETING towards MOUNTAINOUS AREAS near KOLOMYIA is NOTEWORTHY. The REPORTS OF DOWNED MISSILES suggest CONTINUED AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY, but the PERSISTENCE OF THE ATTACK indicates ONGOING PRESSURE. The DRONE ATTACK on KHARKIV adds ANOTHER LAYER OF THREAT.
Николаевский Ванёк (04:09 UTC): Reports the LANDING OF THE MiG-31K.
Николаевский Ванёк (04:11 UTC): All 10 Tu-95MS have returned to Olenya.
Assessment: This REDUCES THE IMMEDIATE THREAT of a KINZHAL HYPERSONIC MISSILE STRIKE. However, the POSSIBILITY OF FUTURE LAUNCHES REMAINS. The return of the Tu-95MS is also important.
РБК-Україна (04:11 UTC): Reports that Poland has raised its fighters into the air to face the ongoing attacks.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT that shows INCREASED REGIONAL TENSIONS and NATO'S READINESS to RESPOND TO THREATS near its BORDERS.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE ON THE MISSILE ATTACK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (04:24 UTC), and others (04:24 UTC): Claims a gas pipeline in Ternopil was hit after a Russian missile strike. Includes video and photos.
Assessment: The RUSSIAN SOURCES continue to EMPHASIZE THE ATTACK ON TERNOPIL, specifically TARGETING A GAS PIPELINE. This REINFORCES THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT that ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE is a KEY TARGET.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (04:25 UTC): Claims that the European countries have created a plan to protect the Ukrainian sky, through the so-called "Sky Shield" plan, deploying 120 NATO fighters to protect Odessa, Lviv and 3 atomic stations.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (04:26 UTC), and РБК-Україна (04:26 UTC): Reports that there are 3 Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea, with a total of 8 Kalibr missiles.
Colonelcassad (04:07 UTC): "Granat-4" UAV.
Assessment: This confirms that Russian forces are using the "Granat-4" UAV, with thermal capabilities, and that the UAVs have good range and endurance, enhancing the artillery support.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
ONGOING MISSILE ATTACK FOCUSED ON WESTERN UKRAINE, specifically TERNOPIL and IVANO-FRANKIVSK OBLASTS. CONFIRMED STRIKES in TERNOPIL and KHARKIV. TARGETING SHIFTED towards MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
DRONE ATTACK on KHARKIV.
AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS ACTIVE, but UNDER CONTINUED PRESSURE.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED ATTACK on a GAS PIPELINE in TERNOPIL.
INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS WITH GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS IN DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED). Remains the same.
CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED). Remains the same, with MULTIPLE DRONES REPORTED.
Russian claims on the "Sky Shield" plan by the NATO.
Confirmation of the deployment and the capabilities of the "Granat-4" UAV.
3 missile carriers in the Black Sea, with a total of 8 Kalibrs.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
RESPOND TO THE ONGOING MISSILE ATTACK AND KHARKIV DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in WESTERN UKRAINE.
Issue CONTINUOUS WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in THREATENED AREAS to SEEK SHELTER.
Prioritize interception of INCOMING MISSILES AND DRONES.
Prepare for potential mass casualty events in TERNOPIL and KHARKIV.
ADDRESS THE TERNOPIL GAS PIPELINE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Assess the damage to the GAS PIPELINE and the IMPACT ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
Implement emergency repair plans if necessary.
Prepare for potential disruptions to gas supplies.
MONITOR THE SITUATION NEAR POLISH BORDERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain close communication with POLISH AUTHORITIES and NATO ALLIES.
Monitor for any further escalation of MILITARY ACTIVITY near POLISH AIRSPACE.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL, with the ONGOING MISSILE ATTACK now FOCUSED ON WESTERN UKRAINE and a DRONE ATTACK on KHARKIV. CONFIRMED STRIKES in TERNOPIL (targeting a GAS PIPELINE) and KHARKIV highlight the SEVERITY OF THE ATTACK. The LANDING OF THE MiG-31KREDUCES THE IMMEDIATE KINZHAL THREAT, but the POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE LAUNCHES REMAINS. The DEPLOYMENT OF POLISH FIGHTERS indicates INCREASED REGIONAL TENSIONS. IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION is required to PROTECT CIVILIANS, MITIGATE DAMAGE, and MAINTAIN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES. The ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE is UNDER ATTACK, requiring URGENT RESPONSE.
