Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 04:06 UTC

Changes and New Information (03:36 UTC - 04:06 UTC)

1. MISSILE TRAJECTORY SHIFTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (03:36 UTC) and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:36 UTC): Report a group of missiles changing course from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Mykolaiv Oblast.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:37 UTC): Several missiles moved from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Poltava Oblast, course north. More missiles west of Kamianske, course north. Five missiles flying past Vysokopillya, heading west towards Novyi Buh.
   • РБК-Україна (03:38 UTC) confirms the course change to Mykolaiv Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:38 UTC): Missile in northern Poltava Oblast, heading west (towards Lokhvytsia/Zavodske).
   • РБК-Україна (03:39 UTC) confirms the missile trajectory in northern Poltava Oblast.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:39 UTC): 1 missile past Hadiach, heading towards/through Lubny.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:41 UTC): Group of missiles in northeast Mykolaiv Oblast, course north-west.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:41 UTC): Several missiles (more than 5) west of Poltava and Kamianske, heading towards Myrhorod. Around 3 missiles are passing Novyi Buh into Kirovohrad Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:42 UTC): Dnipro, shelter.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:42 UTC): Reports additional missiles via Okhtyrka toward Poltava Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:44 UTC): Missiles in the north of Kharkiv, heading south.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:43 UTC): Reports that the missile thought to have been shot down near Hadiach is still flying, heading towards/through Lubny, very low. * РБК-Україна (03:43 UTC): Group of missiles in northeast Mykolaiv Oblast heading north-west. Dnipro residents urged to take shelter.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:44 UTC): The main mass of missiles entering through Okhtyrka and Kharkiv Oblast, course towards Poltava. It might be loud.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:44 UTC): Missiles in south of Sumy region, heading for Poltava region!

   • *Николаевский Ванёк* (3:46 UTC): 3 missiles south of Kropyvnytskyi, course north-west. Many missiles north, west and southwest of Poltava. High missile threat for all Poltava region! 1 missile is north of Cherkasy, course south-west.
     

     • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:46 UTC): Group of missiles from Poltava region heading towards Cherkasy region.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:47 UTC): Zolotonosha, Cherkasy, take shelter.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (03:47 UTC): Group of rockets from Poltava region heading to Cherkasy region.

• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:47 UTC): Ballistic missiles from Kharkiv region to Poltava region. * Николаевский Ванёк (03:48 UTC): Main mass of missiles headed towards Mirgorod and Mirgorod region. It might be loud!
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:48 UTC): Mirgorod, Opishnya, Poltava, take shelter.
• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:49 UTC): Missiles from Kirovohrad region heading to Cherkasy region.
  • Николаевский Ванёк (03:49 UTC): More than 10 missiles, heading to Mirgorod and the region.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:50 UTC): Kaniv, missiles in your direction!

• *Николаевский Ванёк* (03:51 UTC): 1 missile heading to/through Hadiach, it might be loud.
  *   *ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS* (03:51 UTC): Up to 10 missiles towards Myrhorod.
  

  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:52 UTC): Group of missiles in the southwest of Sumy region, heading towards the south of Chernihiv region.
  • Николаевский Ванёк (03:52 UTC): Several missiles heading to/through Pryluki. A couple of missiles heading to/through Hadiach. A couple of missiles west of Poltava, heading to Myrhorod region. 3 missiles in the west of Kirovohrad region, heading west. 1 missile in the Bilotserkivsky district, course southwest.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:53 UTC): Missile group from Kirovohrad region changed direction to south-west.
• Николаевский Ванёк (03:54 UTC): Missiles from Kirovohrad region turn toward Pervomaisk, it may be loud!
  • РБК-Україна (03:54 UTC): Group of missiles from Kirovohrad region changed direction to south-west.
• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (03:55 UTC): Explosions in Poltava region. * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:55 UTC): Missiles from Poltava region continue to move in a westerly direction (Chernihiv/Kyiv/Cherkasy).
• Два майора (03:55 UTC): This morning, enemy channels reported the launch of our Tu-95ms missile carriers. The missiles (estimated by the enemy to be more than 15) entered Ukrainian airspace. Explosions have already been heard in the Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Before that, "Kalibrs" and "Geran" worked at night.
  • Николаевский Ванёк (03:57 UTC): A couple of missiles heading towards/through Hadiach. 1 missile from the Belotserkovsky district is flying to the Vinnytsia region. 3 missiles are leaving the Mykolaiv region for the Odessa region, the course is still west.
• Николаевский Ванёк (03:58 UTC): In the Poltava region, at the moment, the missiles are minus, only 1 moped wanders north of Poltava.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:58 UTC): Missiles in the north of Mykolaiv region, heading north of Odesa region. * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:58 UTC): Missiles in the south of Kyiv region, heading west.
  • РБК-Україна (04:00 UTC): Enemy missiles in the south of Kyiv region, course - west.
• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:00 UTC): Missiles on the border of Kirovohrad, Odesa in the direction of Vinnytsia.
• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:01 UTC): Missiles from the south of Kyiv region, course - Vinnytsia.
  • РБК-Україна (04:01 UTC): Missiles from the south of Kyiv region, course - Vinnytsia.
  • Николаевский Ванёк (04:02 UTC): 3 missiles in the south of Vinnytsia region, course northwest. 1 rocket flew into the Vinnytsia region from the Kyiv region. * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:03 UTC): Orativ, Vinnytsia, take shelter! * Николаевский Ванёк (04:04 UTC):
  • 1 UAV south of Khmelnytskyi, course west.
  • 1 UAV moving from Vinnytsia to Khmelnytskyi.
  • 6 UAVs from Kyiv region moving to Vinnytsia.
  • 3 UAVs north of Bila Tserkva, course west.
  • 1 UAV at the intersection of Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions.
  • 2 UAVs in the east of Kyiv region.
  • 2 UAVs in the Lebedyn area.
  • 1 UAV circling north of Poltava.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:05 UTC): Missiles in the south of Vinnytsia are moving in a westerly direction, in the east - in a south-westerly direction. * Assessment: The MISSILE ATTACK CONTINUES, with MULTIPLE SHIFTS IN TRAJECTORY and NEW TARGET AREAS. The focus has broadened, including confirmed strikes in POLTAVA, DNIPROPETROVSK, and IVANO-FRANKIVSK regions. The missiles are now threatening a broad swath of regions: MYKOLAIV, POLTAVA, KIROVOHRAD, CHERKASY, KYIV, VINNYTSIA, ODESA, ZHYTOMYR, and KHMELNYTSKYI OBLASTS. DNIPRO is specifically UNDER IMMEDIATE THREAT. The USE OF BALLISTIC MISSILES from KHARKIV TO POLTAVA is a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. The REPORTED DOWNING of SOME MISSILES near HADYACH and over POLTAVA suggests AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY, but the CONTINUED INFLUX of MISSILES indicates the system is UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE.

2. MiG-31K TAKEOFF (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:37 UTC), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:39 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (03:40 UTC), and РБК-Україна (03:40 UTC) all report the takeoff of a MiG-31K. The UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE specifically issues a WARNING about the takeoff. Nikolaevskiy Vanyok states it is FROM ASTRAKHAN.
   • Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE THREAT LEVEL. The MiG-31K is CAPABLE OF CARRYING the KINZHAL HYPERSONIC MISSILE, which is EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO INTERCEPT. The takeoff from ASTRAKHAN expands the POTENTIAL TARGET RANGE. This ELEVATES THE THREAT to the ENTIRE COUNTRY.

3. REPORTED GAS STORAGE FACILITY ATTACK IN TERNOPIL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (04:01 UTC) claims a gas storage facility in Ternopil was attacked and is burning. Includes video and photos.
   • Assessment: This CORROBORATES PREVIOUS REPORTS of a SUCCESSFUL STRIKE IN TERNOPIL. The CLAIM OF A GAS STORAGE FACILITY BEING HIT is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT if confirmed, as it would IMPACT ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The videos and photos, while from a RUSSIAN SOURCE, ADD CREDIBILITY to the claim, showing a LARGE FIRE consistent with a MAJOR INCIDENT.

4. RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE ON THE MISSILE ATTACK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Два майора (03:55 UTC).
• Assessment: This information confirms the perspective that the attack is coordinated, with the Tu-95ms being the missile carriers, and the strikes having happened, as the missiles had entered the Ukrainian air space.

5. OTHER REPORTS (LOW PRIORITY)

   • ТАСС (03:58 UTC): Reports the extinguishing of an open fire at a warehouse in the Moscow region. (No direct military impact)
   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (04:03 UTC).
   • Assessment: 4 paratroopers from the 83rd airborne took 10 AFU POWs, sniper group from the 331st destroyed a group of soldiers near Chasiv Yar and paratroopers continue to attack Piatykhatky.

• ТАСС (04:02 UTC): Video of the widow of "Hero of Russia" Sergei Chebnev stating she plans to help participants of the special operation and their families. (Propaganda/morale-boosting content)
• ТАСС (04:05 UTC): Reports that Russian troops repelled 4 Ukrainian counter attacks near Kupyansk.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • ONGOING, WIDESPREAD MISSILE ATTACK across MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN REGIONS, including CONFIRMED STRIKES. TRAJECTORIES SHIFTING, with NEW AREAS THREATENED. DNIPRO under IMMEDIATE THREAT.
  • MiG-31K TAKEOFF from ASTRAKHAN, posing a KINZHAL HYPERSONIC MISSILE THREAT to THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.
  • BALLISTIC MISSILE USE confirmed from KHARKIV TO POLTAVA.
  • AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS ACTIVE, but UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED ATTACK on a GAS STORAGE FACILITY in TERNOPIL, with visual evidence.
  • INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS WITH GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS IN DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED). Remains the same.
  • CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED). Remains the same, with MULTIPLE DRONES REPORTED.
  • REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED). Requires INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
  • REPORTED RUSSIAN MISSILES TARGETED GAS INFRASTRUCTURE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED). Requires URGENT VERIFICATION.
  • SU-57 DEPLOYMENT FROM AKHTUBINSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED). Potential for GUIDED AERIAL MISSILE STRIKES in NORTHERN UKRAINE.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY: Russian reports of repelled attacks.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:

2. RESPOND TO THE ONGOING MISSILE ATTACK AND MiG-31K TAKEOFF (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.
   • Issue IMMEDIATE AND REPEATED WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in ALL THREATENED AREAS, specifically mentioning DNIPRO, to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • Prioritize the INTERCEPTION of INCOMING MISSILES, particularly in areas with CONFIRMED TRAJECTORIES.
   • Prepare for the potential use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Deploy ALL AVAILABLE COUNTERMEASURES, though INTERCEPTION IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
   • Track the MiG-31K's flight path and PREPARE FOR RAPID RESPONSE if a LAUNCH IS DETECTED.

3. ADDRESS THE TERNOPIL GAS STORAGE FACILITY REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • VERIFY THE REPORT of the ATTACK on the GAS STORAGE FACILITY.
   • Assess the damage and IMPACT ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • Deploy emergency response teams if necessary.

4. CONTINUE MONITORING AND RESPONDING TO SHIFTING MISSILE TRAJECTORIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Continuously track and update missile trajectories in REAL-TIME.
   • Issue dynamic warnings to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS based on CHANGING THREAT LEVELS.
   • Adjust air defense deployments as needed to RESPOND TO SHIFTING THREATS.

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL due to the ONGOING, WIDESPREAD MISSILE ATTACK and the TAKEOFF OF A MiG-31K, posing a KINZHAL HYPERSONIC MISSILE THREAT. The attack is DYNAMIC, with SHIFTING TRAJECTORIES and NEW AREAS THREATENED. IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION is required to PROTECT CIVILIANS, MITIGATE DAMAGE, and MAINTAIN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES. The USE OF BALLISTIC MISSILES is a MAJOR ESCALATION. The POTENTIAL ATTACK on a GAS STORAGE FACILITY in TERNOPIL adds ANOTHER LAYER OF CONCERN.