Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 03:36 UTC
Changes and New Information (03:06 UTC - 03:36 UTC)
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (03:12 UTC) reports Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold near Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and advanced 500 meters towards Petro-Ivanovka. The information is attributed to military expert Andrey Marochko.
Assessment: This REPORTS A TACTICAL GAIN by RUSSIAN FORCES in the KUPYANSK DIRECTION. While the 500-METER ADVANCE is RELATIVELY SMALL, it REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INCREASED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY in this AREA. This claim requires INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION from UKRAINIAN SOURCES or OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE. The USE OF A "MILITARY EXPERT" as a SOURCE may indicate a PROPAGANDA ATTEMPT.
Николаевский Ванёк (03:13 UTC) claims that all cruise missiles launched during the recent attack were targeting gas infrastructure in various parts of the country.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM that REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If TRUE, it indicates a DELIBERATE RUSSIAN STRATEGY to TARGET UKRAINE'S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, potentially CRIPPLING THE ECONOMY and WEAKENING THE WAR EFFORT. This would be a MAJOR ESCALATION. INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is NEEDED.
SU-57 DEPLOYMENT FROM AKHTUBINSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Николаевский Ванёк (03:16 UTC) reports the takeoff of a Su-57 fighter jet from Akhtubinsk, adding a threat of guided aerial missiles in the north.
Assessment: The REPORTED DEPLOYMENT of a SU-57, Russia's MOST ADVANCED FIGHTER JET, is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. This could indicate an INTENTION TO CONDUCT STRIKES with GUIDED AERIAL MISSILES, potentially INCREASING THE ACCURACY AND EFFECTIVENESS of RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS. The NORTHERN FOCUS suggests TARGETS in NORTHERN UKRAINE are AT RISK.
DRONE WARNING FOR SUMY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:18 UTC) warns of an enemy attack drone approaching Sumy from the south.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS AN IMMINENT THREAT to SUMY. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS should be on HIGH ALERT, and CIVILIANS should SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:28 UTC): Reports a missile in the southwest of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading north.
Николаевский Ванёк (03:28 UTC): Reports a cruise missile flying near Nikopol, heading north towards Kamianske.
РБК-Україна (03:29 UTC): Reports the same missile movement as above.
Николаевский Ванёк (03:31 UTC): Reports another missile following the same course. Reports several cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers southwest of Kamianske, heading north. Reports a couple of missiles near Nikopol heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:31 UTC): Reports missiles in Sumy Oblast, heading west.
Николаевский Ванёк (03:32 UTC): Reports a cruise missile near Okhtyrka, heading towards Hadiach.
РБК-Україна (03:32 UTC): Reports missiles in Sumy Oblast, heading west, attributed to Tu-95MS bombers.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:33 UTC): Warning to Lebedyn (Sumy Oblast) to take shelter.
Николаевский Ванёк (03:34 UTC) reports several missiles west of Kamianske, course north. Around 5 missiles heading towards/through Kryviy Rih (warning it might be loud). 1 missile is approaching Hadiach.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:35 UTC): Groups of missiles in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course to Poltava Oblast.
Николаевский Ванёк (03:35 UTC): The five missiles have turned to Zelenodolsk, in a bunch. It might be loud.
Assessment: This MASSIVE WAVE OF MISSILE REPORTS indicates a MAJOR AND ONGOING RUSSIAN AIR ATTACK. MULTIPLE MISSILES are TARGETING VARIOUS LOCATIONS across UKRAINE. The USE OF TU-95MS BOMBERS suggests a LARGE-SCALE STRIKE. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS are likely OVERWHELMED. The TARGETING OF MULTIPLE REGIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY is HIGHLY CONCERNING. The missiles are MOVING RAPIDLY, requiring IMMEDIATE WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and MILITARY ASSETS. The REPORTED MOVEMENT TOWARDS ZELENODOLSK is a NEW DEVELOPMENT, indicating this region has been TARGETED. This region must be PROMPTLY WARNED.
OTHER:
Полиция Хабаровского края (03:14:09 UTC): Multiple messages and photos relating to a children's postcard competition for International Women's Day.
Assessment: Irrelevant
ТАСС (03:23:58 UTC, 03:23:59 UTC): Video of the arrest of a deputy of the Altai Regional Legislative Assembly, suspected of large-scale fraud.
Assessment: Not relevant to the immediate military situation, it reflects a matter of internal Russian affairs.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (03:31:01, 03:31:02 UTC): Photo and message about a quiz for subscribers.
Assessment: Not relevant to the immediate military situation.
ТАСС (03:33:21 UTC): Reports that trade turnover between China and Russia decreased by 7.1% in January-February, to $34.68 billion.
Assessment: May be relevant in the future.
Updated Situation Summary
INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS WITH GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS IN DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains the same.
LIKELY SUCCESSFUL STRIKE ON TERNOPIL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains the same.
CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains the same. With SPECIFIC WARNINGS to SUMY and VASYLKIV.
MAJOR AND ONGOING MISSILE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MULTIPLE MISSILES targeting VARIOUS LOCATIONS. LARGE-SCALE STRIKE involving TU-95MS BOMBERS. AIR DEFENSE likely OVERWHELMED. ZELENODOLSK now confirmed as TARGET.
SU-57 DEPLOYMENT FROM AKHTUBINSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Potential for GUIDED AERIAL MISSILE STRIKES in NORTHERN UKRAINE.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS IN DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains the same.
ADDRESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN TERNOPIL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains the same.
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS ACROSS UKRAINE, PRIORITIZING DRONES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): Remains the same. With IMMEDIATE FOCUS on SUMY and VASYLKIV.
VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Deploy reconnaissance assets to VERIFY the CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE near KUPYANSK.
Cross-reference information with OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE REPORTS.
VERIFY REPORTED TARGETING OF GAS INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Conduct damage assessments at KNOWN GAS INFRASTRUCTURE SITES to DETERMINE if they have been TARGETED.
Gather intelligence from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIM.
RESPOND TO THE MAJOR AND ONGOING MISSILE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
Issue IMMEDIATE AND REPEATED WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in ALL AFFECTED AREAS to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. This includes a SPECIFIC AND URGENT WARNING to ZELENODOLSK.
Track missile trajectories and DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS as EFFECTIVELY as POSSIBLE.
Prepare for massive damage assessments and rescue operations after the ATTACK SUBSIDES.
Gather intelligence on LAUNCH LOCATIONS for POTENTIAL COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE.
Track the movement and activity of the REPORTED SU-57.
Maintain heightened alert for GUIDED AERIAL MISSILE LAUNCHES, particularly in NORTHERN UKRAINE.
ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH PRIORITIES ADJUSTED AS INDICATED.
The situation has SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATED with a MAJOR AND ONGOING MISSILE ATTACK across UKRAINE. This, combined with the CONTINUED DRONE THREAT, the INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS with GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, and the POTENTIAL TARGETING OF GAS INFRASTRUCTURE, represents a SEVERE AND WIDESPREAD ASSAULT by RUSSIAN FORCES. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is REQUIRED to PROTECT CIVILIANS, MITIGATE DAMAGE, and MAINTAIN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES. The SCALE AND INTENSITY of this ATTACK are UNPRECEDENTED in RECENT WEEKS. ALL AVAILABLE RESOURCES must be MOBILIZED AND DEPLOYED IMMEDIATELY.
