Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 03:06 UTC
Changes and New Information (02:36 UTC - 03:06 UTC)
REPEATED GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES IN DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:05 UTC) reports REPEATED launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in BOTH Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. The REPEATED LAUNCHES and the EXPANSION TO SUMY OBLAST indicate a SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF AIR ATTACKS. This INCREASES THE THREAT LEVEL in BOTH REGIONS to EXTREME. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to PROTECT CIVILIANS and MILITARY ASSETS. This represents a MAJOR ESCALATION.
REPORTED POWER OUTAGE AND FIRE IN TERNOPIL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (02:59 UTC) reports that part of Ternopil is currently without power, with local channels and media claiming a strong fire after an attack.
РБК-Україна (03:00 UTC) reports that explosions were heard in Ternopil, citing "Suspilne".
Assessment: This STRONGLY SUGGESTS that TERNOPIL HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY STRUCK during the RECENT MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACK. The POWER OUTAGE and REPORTED FIRE indicate SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. This is a DIRECT CONSEQUENCE of the RUSSIAN AIR ATTACK. EMERGENCY SERVICES should be IMMEDIATELY DEPLOYED, and DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS should BEGIN. This CONFIRMS THE EFFECTIVENESS of the RUSSIAN STRIKE.
UPDATED DRONE TRACKING INFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (02:41 UTC) provides updated information on drone movements:
Drones in southern Kharkiv Oblast, course: south.
New groups of drones in southern and eastern Sumy Oblast, course: west/southwest.
Drones in northern Poltava Oblast, course: west/southwest.
Drones in northeastern Chernihiv Oblast, course: south.
Drones in northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, course: north.
Drones in eastern Kirovohrad Oblast, course: west.
Drones in northeastern Vinnytsia Oblast, course: east.
Drones in central Kyiv Oblast, course: southwest.
Николаевский Ванёк (03:02 UTC): Provides an update.
2 near Berdychiv.
1 passes Fastiv into the Zhytomyr region.
7 north of Cherkasy.
5 in eastern Kyiv region.
2 in Poltava Oblast moving toward Cherkasy region.
7 in Okhtyrka.
1 toward Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast.
1 towards Pokrovsk.
Assessment: This DETAILED INFORMATION confirms the CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT. The MOVEMENT OF DRONES across MULTIPLE REGIONS indicates a COORDINATED ATTACK designed to OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES. The SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND TRAJECTORIES are CRITICAL for TARGETING AIR DEFENSE ASSETS. The REPORTED NEW GROUPS OF DRONES in SUMY OBLAST are PARTICULARLY CONCERNING given the SIMULTANEOUS AIR STRIKES in that region.
MISSILE THREAT TO REMAIN UNTIL 06:30 UTC (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Николаевский Ванёк (03:02 UTC) states that the threat from missiles will remain relevant until 06:30 UTC, plus or minus.
Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUED POTENTIAL for FURTHER MISSILE LAUNCHES within the NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS must REMAIN ON HIGH ALERT.
CONFIRMATION OF MISSILE THREAT BEING OVER (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (02:37 UTC) reports that monitoring channels are saying the missile threat is over, but the Ukrainian Air Force confirms the continued threat of strike drones.
Assessment: While some sources suggest the missile threat is over, the OFFICIAL UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE POSITION is that the DRONE THREAT REMAINS. AIR DEFENSE should MAINTAIN VIGILANCE against BOTH THREATS, prioritizing DRONES for the IMMEDIATE FUTURE.
OTHER:
Николаевский Ванёк (02:38:02) Expresses his thanks to the pilots.
Assessment: Irrelevant.
ТАСС (02:54:37): Reports on the declarations of the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Assessment: Not relevant to the immediate military situation.
ТАСС (03:02:28) Caption of a video, regarding Georgia needing to recognize Abkhazia.
Colonelcassad (03:03:06) Caption on a picture, showing a soldier.
* Assessment: Not relevant to the immediate military situation.
Updated Situation Summary
INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS WITH GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS IN DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):REPEATED LAUNCHES in BOTH REGIONS indicate a MAJOR ESCALATION. EXTREME THREAT LEVEL.
LIKELY SUCCESSFUL STRIKE ON TERNOPIL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):POWER OUTAGE and FIRE suggest SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. CONFIRMS EFFECTIVENESS of RUSSIAN ATTACK.
CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):DETAILED TRACKING INFORMATION available. MULTIPLE DRONE GROUPS across NUMEROUS REGIONS. COORDINATED ATTACK.
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER MISSILE LAUNCHES UNTIL 06:30 UTC (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):AIR DEFENSE must REMAIN ON HIGH ALERT.
OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION OF CONTINUED DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):AIR DEFENSE should PRIORITIZE DRONES.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS IN DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS. This is NOW THE TOP PRIORITY.
Issue IMMEDIATE AND REPEATED WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS to SEEK SHELTER.
Deploy ALL AVAILABLE COUNTERMEASURES to NEUTRALIZE GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
Prepare for rapid damage assessment and response after any impacts.
Increase reconnaissance and surveillance to IDENTIFY LAUNCH LOCATIONS of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS for POTENTIAL COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE.
ADDRESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN TERNOPIL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy emergency services to TERNOPIL to ADDRESS THE REPORTED FIRE and POWER OUTAGE.
Assess the extent of damage and IDENTIFY ANY CASUALTIES.
Provide immediate medical assistance to any injured.
Begin planning for infrastructure repair.
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS ACROSS UKRAINE, PRIORITIZING DRONES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Utilize DETAILED DRONE TRACKING INFORMATION to OPTIMIZE AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT.
Prioritize engagement of DRONES based on PROXIMITY TO POPULATION CENTERS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
Maintain readiness for POTENTIAL FURTHER MISSILE LAUNCHES until 06:30 UTC.
VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): Remains a high priority.
ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH PRIORITIES ADJUSTED AS INDICATED.
The situation has FURTHER DETERIORATED with the INTENSIFICATION OF AIR ATTACKS using GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS in DONETSK AND SUMY OBLASTS. This, combined with the LIKELY SUCCESSFUL STRIKE ON TERNOPIL and the CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT, represents a MAJOR ESCALATION by RUSSIAN FORCES. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is REQUIRED to PROTECT CIVILIANS and MITIGATE DAMAGE. The EXPANSION OF AIR ATTACKS TO SUMY OBLAST is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING. ALL AVAILABLE RESOURCES must be MOBILIZED AND DEPLOYED EFFECTIVELY.
