Five in eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
One south of Poltava.
Two approaching Chuhuiv.
One heading towards/through Pryluky.
One near Boryspil.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (23:37 UTC):
Drones from Kherson region heading towards Mykolaiv region.
Drones in Dnipropetrovsk region heading towards Kharkiv region.
Drones in Dnipro.
Drones in Kharkiv region heading north, near Kharkiv.
Drones in Chernihiv region heading towards Poltava region.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the PATTERN OF WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY. The CONCENTRATION OF DRONES in DNIPROPETROVSK REGIONREMAINS, but with a SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH. The MOVEMENT towards KHARKIV REGION is NOTABLE. The PRESENCE OF DRONES near BORYSPIL (NEAR KYIV) is also SIGNIFICANT.
Воин DV (23:31 UTC) reports Russian forces (144th Brigade) captured Andreevka and are fighting for Alekseevka (west of Kurakhove). Video and photo evidence provided.
Assessment: This SUGGESTS A RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KURAKHOVE DIRECTION. The VIDEO AND PHOTO EVIDENCE, while from a RUSSIAN SOURCE, LENDS CREDIBILITY to the CLAIM. This REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION, but if CONFIRMED, it represents a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAIN.
EU SEES ZELENSKY'S ATTEMPT TO RECONCILE WITH TRUMP AS A FAILURE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):
ТАСС (23:33 UTC) reports, citing The Daily Telegraph, that the EU views Zelensky's attempt to reconcile with Trump as a failure.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the GROWING RIFT between UKRAINE and TRUMP. It DOES NOT CHANGE THE OBJECTIVE SITUATION, but it HIGHLIGHTS the CHALLENGES facing UKRAINE in MAINTAINING US SUPPORT.
Colonelcassad (23:33 UTC) shows photos of a destroyed Ukrainian 122-mm self-propelled howitzer ("Gvozdika") in the Sumy region border area.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT, but its STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE is LIMITED without ADDITIONAL CONTEXT (e.g., date, circumstances of destruction).
EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN DNIPRO (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):
РБК-Україна (23:40 UTC) reports explosions in Dnipro.
ТАСС (23:49 UTC) reports explosions in Dnipro.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS that DNIPRO IS UNDER ATTACK, consistent with REPORTS OF INCOMING DRONES.
РБК-Україна (23:42 UTC) reports and posts pictures of the massive drone strike that took place in the Odesa region.
Assessment: 1 person is confirmed killed and there is massive destruction in the area.
STEPASHIN COMMENTS (LOW PRIORITY):
ТАСС (23:44) Former Prime Minister of Russia, Sergey Stepashin, stated that the US halting military aid to Ukraine will have significant impacts on the SMO.
Assessment: Adds nothing new.
Updated Situation Summary
WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE, DNIPRO UNDER ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple regions under threat, with a shift in focus towards northern Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions. Explosions confirmed in Dnipro.
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM CAPTURE OF ANDREEVKA, ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Requires independent verification, but video/photo evidence suggests a significant Russian gain.
ODESA ATTACK AFTERMATH (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): 1 person is confirmed killed and there is massive destruction in the area.
DRONE APPROACHING KOSTIANTYNIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Consistent with previous reports suggesting an imminent assault. This report is from the previous analysis and has not been updated in the latest messages.
COUNTER-TERRORISM OPERATION IN DAGESTAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ongoing security situation with civilian evacuations. This report is from the previous analysis and has not been updated in the latest messages.
REPORTS OF HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES IN AVDIIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, PROPAGANDA): While likely propaganda, it reinforces the plausible narrative of significant Russian losses. This report is from the previous analysis and has not been updated in the latest messages.
US HALTS WEAPON SALES FUNDING TO UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING DEVELOPMENT. REQUIRES IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION and URGENT DIPLOMATIC ACTION. This report is from the previous analysis and has not been updated in the latest messages.
TRUMP INCREASES PRESSURE ON UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):DEMANDING APPRECIATION, THREATENING THOSE WHO DON'T AGREE TO A DEAL, SIGNALING POTENTIAL RESOURCE DEAL. This report is from the previous analysis and has not been updated in the latest messages.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE DNIPRO AND KHARKIV REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain maximum alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, with INCREASED FOCUS on DNIPROPETROVSK and KHARKIV REGIONS due to the SHIFT IN DRONE ACTIVITY.
Continue to track drone movements and PROVIDE REAL-TIME WARNINGS to CIVILIANS.
Prioritize the interception of drones targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy reconnaissance assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of CAPTURING ANDREEVKA and ADVANCING TOWARDS ALEKSEEVKA.
Assess the extent of any territorial changes and the IMPACT on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. Specifically:
URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTS OF US HALTING WEAPON SALES FUNDING TO UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):NO CHANGE.
PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL ASSAULT ON KOSTIANTYNIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):NO CHANGE.
CONTINUE MONITORING SITUATION IN DAGESTAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):NO CHANGE.
ADDRESS REPORTS OF HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):NO CHANGE.
RESPOND TO TRUMP'S PRESSURE TACTICS AND POTENTIAL RESOURCE DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):NO CHANGE.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS due to the CONTINUING WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS and the CONFIRMED EXPLOSIONS IN DNIPRO. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KURAKHOVE is a MAJOR CONCERN if CONFIRMED. AIR DEFENSE READINESS and VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES are the HIGHEST PRIORITIES.
