НгП раZVедка (22:52 UTC) reports a CTO in Semender, a suburb of Makhachkala, Dagestan. Four individuals allegedly planned an attack on law enforcement. They reportedly opened fire on police and were subsequently blockaded. Civilians were evacuated.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (23:01 UTC) reiterates the attack plan on law enforcement and the blockade.
ТАСС (23:14 UTC) confirms civilian evacuation in the CTO zone.
РБК-Україна (22:55 UTC): Reports that the attackers opened fire.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS a SIGNIFICANT SECURITY INCIDENT in DAGESTAN. While NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the WAR IN UKRAINE, it COULD DIVERT RUSSIAN RESOURCES and HIGHLIGHT INTERNAL INSTABILITY. The EVACUATION OF CIVILIANS indicates the SERIOUSNESS OF THE THREAT.
RUSSIAN CASUALTIES IN AVDIIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (22:54 UTC) reports that Russian forces found 121 bodies with dog tags and dozens more without, of soldiers from the 1487th Rifle and 10th Tank Regiments, who were missing in Avdiivka from October-December 2023. It links this to the alleged suicide of a Russian military blogger ("Murz") who reported over 16,000 Russian deaths in the Avdiivka operation.
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Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES in AVDIIVKA. The CLAIM of a BLOGGER'S SUICIDE due to REPORTING HIGH DEATH TOLLS is DESIGNED TO HIGHLIGHT INTERNAL RUSSIAN DISSENT and POTENTIAL COVER-UPS OF CASUALTY FIGURES. This is likely PROPAGANDA, but THE UNDERLYING POINT about SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN LOSSES in AVDIIVKA is PLAUSIBLE.
Николаевский Ванёк (22:57 UTC) provides a detailed update on drone locations:
One near Brovary (near Kyiv).
One south of Kyiv (still being engaged).
One west of Sumy.
Two at the intersection of Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
One approaching Pavlohrad.
One south of Dnipro.
Two in eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, heading south.
Three passed Kharkiv and Chuhuiv, heading east.
Two moving from Poltava to Dnipropetrovsk region.
Two from Kharkiv region towards Donetsk region.
One approaching Kostiantynivka.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (23:18 UTC): Threat of attack UAVs in Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (23:20 UTC): Drones in Dnipropetrovsk region heading to Dnipro.
РБК-Україна (23:19 UTC): Air defense activity in Kharkiv and Poltava.
РБК-Україна (23:08 UTC): Explosion in Pavlograd.
Assessment: This provides a COMPREHENSIVE PICTURE of WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS. The CONCENTRATION of DRONES in DNIPROPETROVSK REGION is NOTABLE. The REPORTED EXPLOSION IN PAVLOGRADCONFIRMS A STRIKE. The DRONE APPROACHING KOSTIANTYNIVKA is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS suggesting an IMMINENT ASSAULT.
STRIKES REPORTED IN MULTIPLE REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (23:03 UTC) reports strikes in Kyiv, Odesa, Kremenchuk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kyiv regions, primarily using "Geran" drones.
Assessment: This CORROBORATES the REPORTS OF WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY. It SUGGESTS A COORDINATED RUSSIAN DRONE CAMPAIGN targeting MULTIPLE AREAS.
SITUATIONAL UPDATES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (23:05): Update of the front lines. The ukrainian forces rejected the enemy near Zapadny and Uspenivka.
Colonelcassad (23:19): Ukraine is looking for new guarantees.
Assessment: Irrelevant.
Updated Situation Summary
WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple regions across Ukraine are under threat from Russian drones, with confirmed strikes and air defense activity. Dnipropetrovsk region appears to be a major focus.
DRONE APPROACHING KOSTIANTYNIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Consistent with previous reports suggesting an imminent assault.
EXPLOSION REPORTED IN PAVLOGRAD (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirms a drone strike.
COUNTER-TERRORISM OPERATION IN DAGESTAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ongoing security situation with civilian evacuations.
REPORTS OF HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES IN AVDIIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, PROPAGANDA): While likely propaganda, it reinforces the plausible narrative of significant Russian losses.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL THREATENED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain maximum alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, particularly in DNIPROPETROVSK, KYIV, KHARKIV, POLTAVA, SUMY, KIROVOHRAD, AND DONETSK REGIONS.
Prioritize the interception of drones targeting CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
Continue to track drone movements and PROVIDE REAL-TIME WARNINGS to CIVILIANS.
Coordinate air defense efforts across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS.
PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL ASSAULT ON KOSTIANTYNIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Reinforce Ukrainian positions in and around Kostiantynivka.
Prepare for urban warfare.
Develop plans to protect or evacuate civilians.
CONTINUE MONITORING SITUATION IN DAGESTAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Gather intelligence on the COUNTER-TERRORISM OPERATION in MAKHACHKALA.
Assess the potential implications for RUSSIAN INTERNAL SECURITY and the WAR EFFORT IN UKRAINE.
ADDRESS REPORTS OF HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue to collect and analyze information on RUSSIAN CASUALTIES.
Use this information for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES to UNDERMINE RUSSIAN MORALE and PUBLIC SUPPORT for the war.
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE-SCALE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):NO CHANGE.
PRIORITIZE INVESTIGATION OF THE UFA REFINERY FIRE (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):REINFORCE EFFORTS TO DETERMINE THE CAUSE and GATHER EVIDENCE of a POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK.
Given the reports of numerous casualties at a Dnipropetrovsk REGIONAL HOSPITAL, MOBILIZE MEDICAL RESOURCES and COORDINATE EVACUATION of patients if necessary. Ensure adequate supplies of blood, medical equipment, and personnel are available.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS due to the CONTINUING WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS. The CONCENTRATION OF DRONES in DNIPROPETROVSK REGION and the CONFIRMED STRIKE IN PAVLOGRAD are MAJOR CONCERNS. The DRONE APPROACHING KOSTIANTYNIVKA further increases the RISK OF AN IMMINENT ASSAULT. AIR DEFENSE READINESS and PREPARATIONS FOR URBAN WARFARE remain the HIGHEST PRIORITIES.
