Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 2, 2025, 04:01 UTC

Changes and New Information (03:31 UTC - 04:01 UTC)

1. FIRE AT PLASTICS WAREHOUSE IN BOGORODSKY, MOSCOW OBLAST (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (03:48 UTC) reports a fire at a warehouse storing plastic products in Bogorodsky, Moscow Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is likely a NON-MILITARY INCIDENT. While POTENTIAL SABOTAGE cannot be COMPLETELY RULED OUT without further investigation, it's MORE PROBABLE to be an ACCIDENT. It has NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT on the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE.

2. "DVA MAYORA" SITREP AND PROPAGANDA VIDEO (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (03:58 UTC, 03:59 UTC) provides a lengthy situation report (SITREP) and a propaganda video. The video shows volunteers helping wounded soldiers and promotes support. The SITREP covers several key points:

     • US-UKRAINE RIFT NARRATIVE: Claims the US is transferring control of Ukraine to the UK, highlighting Zelensky's visit to London and suggesting continued US support despite the "show" in Washington.
     • EUROPEAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE: Predicts increased EU support for Ukraine, driven by European bureaucrats and military-industrial corporations.
     • RUSSIAN ADVANCES: Claims Russian forces liberated villages in Kursk Oblast (Pogrebki, Orlovka, Nikolsky) and are advancing towards Basovka, Sumy Oblast. Also claims advances on multiple other fronts (Kupyansk, Krasnolimansk, Seversk, Chasov Yar, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Velyka Novosilka, Orekhov, Kherson).
     • MUTUAL STRIKES: Describes ongoing mutual strikes, with Russia targeting Odesa's port infrastructure and Kyiv, while Ukraine uses drones against Russian targets, including an attempt to destroy a compressor station for the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
     • UKRAINIAN DEFENSE CAPABILITY: Acknowledges that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) are conducting an organized retreat, inflicting casualties, and have reserves for at least six months of defense even without new supplies.
     • ZELENSKY'S POTENTIAL PROVOCATION: Expresses concerns that Zelensky might undertake a new "adventure" to demonstrate resistance.

   • Assessment: The SITREP is a MIXTURE OF FACTUAL REPORTING, PROPAGANDA, AND ANALYSIS from a PRO-RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE.

     • The US-UKRAINE RIFT NARRATIVE is CONSISTENT with previous reports and LIKELY AIMS TO SOW DISCORD among Ukraine's allies.
     • The PREDICTION OF INCREASED EU SUPPORT is PLAUSIBLE, given recent statements from European leaders.
     • The CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES are PARTIALLY CONFIRMED by previous reports (e.g., Nikolsky), but OTHERS REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The level of detail suggests ACCESS TO OPERATIONAL INFORMATION.
     • The DESCRIPTION OF MUTUAL STRIKES is GENERALLY ACCURATE, reflecting the ongoing pattern of the conflict.
     • The ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSE CAPABILITY is NOTEWORTHY for a pro-Russian source, suggesting a REALISTIC ASSESSMENT of the situation.
     • The CONCERN ABOUT ZELENSKY'S POTENTIAL PROVOCATION is SPECULATIVE but REFLECTS RUSSIAN ANXIETY about Ukrainian actions.

   • The VIDEO IS PURE PROPAGANDA designed to BOOST MORALE and PROMOTE SUPPORT for the RUSSIAN MILITARY.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN THERMOBARIC STRIKES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED use of TOS-1A SYSTEM, resulting in SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION of UKRAINIAN POSITIONS.
• RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST IN KHERSON (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED destruction of a KEY UKRAINIAN MILITARY ASSET.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF HIGH UKRAINIAN-CAUSED CIVILIAN CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): LIKELY PROPAGANDA, but REQUIRES MONITORING.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES ON HULIAIPOLE, POLOHY DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED bomber strikes on UKRAINIAN TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT POINTS. HIGH RISK OF CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE.
• RENEWED THREAT OF AIR STRIKES ON NORTH-EASTERN FRONT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): HIGH PROBABILITY of IMMINENT RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES targeting UKRAINIAN POSITIONS and CIVILIAN AREAS.
• RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED shooting down of a UKRAINIAN UAV by a PANTSIR-S1 SYSTEM.
• POTENTIAL AIR STRIKES IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED).
• RUSSIAN EXPLOITATION OF US-UKRAINE RIFT CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Russian sources ACTIVELY PROMOTING a narrative of UKRAINIAN HUMILIATION.
• ISW WARNS OF STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES OF US AID CESSATION (HIGH PRIORITY): Assessment highlights the risks of EMBOLDENED PRO-RUSSIAN ALLIES, REDUCED US INFLUENCE, and UNDERMINED PEACE PROSPECTS.
• AIR STRIKES UNDERWAY IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED LAUNCHES of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
• DRONE ATTACKS ON STAROKOSTIANTYNIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Threat is now over.
• ONGOING DRONE WARFARE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): RUSSIAN CLAIM of shooting down a UKRAINIAN "BABA YAGA" DRONE with STARLINK.
• UKRAINIAN ADVANCE NEAR TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (earlier report, still relevant).
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (earlier report, still relevant).
• UKRAINIAN REINFORCEMENTS NEAR KUPYANSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): POTENTIAL INDICATION of INTENSIFIED FIGHTING.
• END OF DRONE THREAT IN SEVERAL REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): DE-ESCALATION, but VIGILANCE REQUIRED.
• POLISH MILITARY MODERNIZATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (earlier report, still relevant).
• UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): RUSSIAN CLAIM, LIKELY PROPAGANDA.
• US MARINE CORPS AVIATION PLANS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): LONG-TERM CONTEXT, NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT.
• "DVA MAYORA" SITREP: REINFORCES RUSSIAN NARRATIVE AND CLAIMS FURTHER ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY): Requires Verification.

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO THERMOBARIC STRIKES AND COMMAND POST DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess damage and casualties from the THERMOBARIC STRIKES in the KURSK REGION.
   • Reinforce defenses in the KURSK REGION to COUNTER FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • Assess the impact of the COMMAND POST DESTRUCTION in the KHERSON REGION on UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL CAPABILITIES.
   • Implement measures to RESTORE COMMAND AND CONTROL and MAINTAIN OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS.

2. MAINTAIN AND INTENSIFY AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All actions from the previous version remain.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Challenge Russian claims of HIGH CIVILIAN CASUALTIES caused by UKRAINIAN ATTACKS.
   • Provide evidence (if available) of RUSSIAN RESPONSIBILITY for CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
   • Emphasize Russian use of indiscriminate weapons, such as THERMOBARIC MUNITIONS.
   • Continue the other actions from the previous version.
   • Counter the narrative promoted by "DVA MAYORA" regarding the US-UKRAINE RELATIONSHIP and EUROPEAN SUPPORT. Emphasize the continued commitment of the US and the unified front of Ukraine's allies.

4. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RESPOND TO MILITARY THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): *Maintain extreme air defense readiness.

5. MAINTAIN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • The ISW report and the latest report on the meeting with Trump can be sent to the diplomatic teams to enhance the information.

6. VERIFY "DVA MAYORA" CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, HUMINT, SIGINT) to VERIFY the reported RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST (beyond Nikolsky) and on other fronts (Kupyansk, Krasnolimansk, Seversk, Chasov Yar, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Velyka Novosilka, Orekhov, Kherson).
   • Prioritize verification of advances near BASOVKA, SUMY OBLAST.
   • Assess the reported scale and significance of any confirmed advances.

7. MONITOR RUSSIAN ATTEMPTS TO DISRUPT ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue monitoring for the possibility of more attacks.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The "DVA MAYORA" SITREP, while containing propaganda elements, provides a DETAILED OVERVIEW of the RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE and CLAIMS SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES that REQUIRE URGENT VERIFICATION. The CONTINUED USE OF THERMOBARIC WEAPONS, the DESTRUCTION OF THE UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST, and the ONGOING THREAT OF AIR STRIKES highlight the INTENSITY OF THE CONFLICT. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND DECISIVE ACTION are CRITICAL.