Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 2, 2025, 03:31 UTC

Changes and New Information (03:01 UTC - 03:31 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES IN CROSS-BORDER ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (03:01 UTC) reports that Alexander Bastrykin, Chairman of the Investigative Committee of Russia, claims 652 civilians have been killed and almost 3,000 wounded in Ukrainian attacks on Russian border and rear regions.
   • Assessment: This is a PROPAGANDA STATEMENT from a HIGH-RANKING RUSSIAN OFFICIAL. While civilian casualties in cross-border shelling are POSSIBLE, the NUMBERS ARE LIKELY INFLATED to JUSTIFY RUSSIAN AGGRESSION and PORTRAY UKRAINE AS THE AGGRESSOR. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is IMPOSSIBLE due to the LACK OF ACCESS to the REPORTEDLY AFFECTED AREAS.

2. RUSSIAN THERMOBARIC STRIKES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (03:03 UTC) reports, with accompanying video, that a Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepek" thermobaric multiple rocket launcher ("Тосочка") destroyed Ukrainian positions in the Kursk border region.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the use of THERMOBARIC WEAPONS by RUSSIAN FORCES against UKRAINIAN POSITIONS in the KURSK REGION. Thermobaric weapons are HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE, causing WIDESPREAD DAMAGE and HIGH CASUALTIES. This ESCALATES the INTENSITY OF FIGHTING in this area and POSES SIGNIFICANT RISKS to any PERSONNEL in the TARGETED ZONE.

3. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (03:10 UTC) reports, with video, that Russian paratroopers used a UAV to detect and destroy a Ukrainian command and observation post with personnel on the right bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE targeting a KEY UKRAINIAN MILITARY ASSET. The destruction of a command post DISRUPTS UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL, potentially HINDERING THEIR OPERATIONS in the KHERSON REGION. This demonstrates the CONTINUED EFFECTIVENESS of RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE.

4. DRONE PILOTING IN ATTI MODE (LOW PRIORITY, INFORMATIONAL, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (03:23 UTC) provides information about drone piloting in ATTI mode (manual mode without GPS stabilization). A picture of a DJI Mavic 3 + ATTI is shown.
   • Assessment: This is INFORMATIONAL content, likely intended for RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATORS. It DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT the CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION, but highlights the IMPORTANCE OF SKILLED DRONE PILOTS in MODERN WARFARE, particularly when GPS SIGNALS ARE JAMMED OR UNAVAILABLE.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN THERMOBARIC STRIKES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED use of TOS-1A SYSTEM, resulting in SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION of UKRAINIAN POSITIONS.
• RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST IN KHERSON (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED destruction of a KEY UKRAINIAN MILITARY ASSET.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF HIGH UKRAINIAN-CAUSED CIVILIAN CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): LIKELY PROPAGANDA, but REQUIRES MONITORING.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES ON HULIAIPOLE, POLOHY DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED bomber strikes on UKRAINIAN TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT POINTS. HIGH RISK OF CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE.
• RENEWED THREAT OF AIR STRIKES ON NORTH-EASTERN FRONT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): HIGH PROBABILITY of IMMINENT RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES targeting UKRAINIAN POSITIONS and CIVILIAN AREAS.
• RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED shooting down of a UKRAINIAN UAV by a PANTSIR-S1 SYSTEM.
• POTENTIAL AIR STRIKES IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED).
• RUSSIAN EXPLOITATION OF US-UKRAINE RIFT CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY): Russian sources ACTIVELY PROMOTING a narrative of UKRAINIAN HUMILIATION.
• ISW WARNS OF STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES OF US AID CESSATION (HIGH PRIORITY): Assessment highlights the risks of EMBOLDENED PRO-RUSSIAN ALLIES, REDUCED US INFLUENCE, and UNDERMINED PEACE PROSPECTS.
• AIR STRIKES UNDERWAY IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED LAUNCHES of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
• DRONE ATTACKS ON STAROKOSTIANTYNIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Threat is now over.
• ONGOING DRONE WARFARE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): RUSSIAN CLAIM of shooting down a UKRAINIAN "BABA YAGA" DRONE with STARLINK.
• UKRAINIAN ADVANCE NEAR TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (earlier report, still relevant).
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (earlier report, still relevant).
• UKRAINIAN REINFORCEMENTS NEAR KUPYANSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): POTENTIAL INDICATION of INTENSIFIED FIGHTING.
• END OF DRONE THREAT IN SEVERAL REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): DE-ESCALATION, but VIGILANCE REQUIRED.
• POLISH MILITARY MODERNIZATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (earlier report, still relevant).
• UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): RUSSIAN CLAIM, LIKELY PROPAGANDA.
• US MARINE CORPS AVIATION PLANS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): LONG-TERM CONTEXT, NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT.

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO THERMOBARIC STRIKES AND COMMAND POST DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess damage and casualties from the THERMOBARIC STRIKES in the KURSK REGION.
   • Reinforce defenses in the KURSK REGION to COUNTER FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • Assess the impact of the COMMAND POST DESTRUCTION in the KHERSON REGION on UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL CAPABILITIES.
   • Implement measures to RESTORE COMMAND AND CONTROL and MAINTAIN OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS.

2. MAINTAIN AND INTENSIFY AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All actions from the previous version remain.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Challenge Russian claims of HIGH CIVILIAN CASUALTIES caused by UKRAINIAN ATTACKS.
   • Provide evidence (if available) of RUSSIAN RESPONSIBILITY for CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
   • Emphasize Russian use of indiscriminate weapons, such as THERMOBARIC MUNITIONS.
   • Continue the other actions from the previous version.

4. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RESPOND TO MILITARY THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): *Maintain extreme air defense readiness.

5. MAINTAIN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • The ISW report and the latest report on the meeting with Trump can be sent to the diplomatic teams to enhance the information.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED USE OF THERMOBARIC WEAPONS and the DESTRUCTION OF A UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST indicate a CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT and ESCALATION OF VIOLENCE. The ONGOING THREAT OF AIR STRIKES and RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA EFFORTS further complicate the situation. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to RESPOND TO THESE THREATS, REINFORCE DEFENSES, and COUNTER DISINFORMATION. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH remains HIGH.