Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 22:23 UTC
Changes and New Information (21:53 UTC - 22:23 UTC)
CONTINUED INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS ON KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Оперативний ЗСУ (21:54 UTC, 22:03 UTC): Confirms another strike in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv (21:54 UTC) and reports another strike near a gas station in the same area (22:03 UTC).
РБК-Україна (21:56 UTC, 21:58 UTC, 22:12 UTC, 22:17 UTC, 22:20 UTC): Reports that emergency services are extinguishing a fire on the roof of a three-story building (21:56 UTC). Confirms another strike in the Kyivskyi district near a gas station (21:58 UTC). Reports the Trump Administration is considering cutting off all current military aid to Ukraine (22:12 UTC). Reports EIGHT DRONE STRIKES on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (22:17, 22:20 UTC).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:57 UTC, 22:17 UTC): Reiterates Canada's support (21:57 UTC). Reports Kharkiv under a MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK (22:17 UTC).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:57 UTC, 22:16 UTC): Reports Shahed drones in northern Kherson, heading towards Mykolaiv; in northern Kirovohrad, heading towards Cherkasy; and in Kharkiv Oblast, heading south and north (21:57, 22:16). Reports drones in Sumy Oblast heading southwest, and drones crossing into Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv (22:16).
Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (22:18 UTC, 22:21 UTC): Reports AT LEAST EIGHT DRONE STRIKES on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in the Kyivskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, and Novobavarskyi districts (22:18 UTC). Reports ONE CHILD INJURED by glass (22:21 UTC).
Assessment: The INTENSE DRONE ATTACK on KHARKIVCONTINUES UNABATED. AT LEAST EIGHT SEPARATE STRIKES are now CONFIRMED, with CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE explicitly targeted. ONE CHILD is CONFIRMED INJURED. The geographic spread of drones indicates a WIDESPREAD THREAT.
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (21:59 UTC, 22:02 UTC, 22:03 UTC): Announces an AIR RAID ALERT in Kyiv due to the THREAT OF DRONE ATTACKS (21:59, 22:02 UTC). Confirms the threat (22:03 UTC).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:16 UTC): Reports drones CROSSING INTO KYIV OBLAST from CHERNIHIV.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:02 UTC): Reports FIVE NEW DRONES flying through Snihurivka westward; ONE NEW DRONE towards Pokrov; ONE DRONE moving from Kirovohrad to Mykolaiv Oblast; THREE DRONES northwest of Kropyvnytskyi, heading northwest; TWO DRONES passing Kremenchuk into Kirovohrad Oblast; THREE DRONES south of Kharkiv, heading south; THREE DRONES near Poltava; TWENTY-THREE DRONES in various parts of Chernihiv Oblast; EIGHT DRONES moving from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast; THREE DRONES near Sumy; and ONE DRONE over Kyiv.
Оперативний ЗСУ (22:01 UTC): Reports air raid alarm in Kyiv (22:01).
Assessment: The DRONE THREAT has EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY, with KYIV now under DIRECT THREAT. The LARGE NUMBER OF DRONES REPORTED across MULTIPLE REGIONS indicates a MAJOR, COORDINATED ATTACK. The SCALE of the attack suggests a DELIBERATE ATTEMPT TO OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES across a WIDE AREA.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERING CUTTING OFF ALL MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (22:12 UTC): Reports the Trump Administration is considering cutting off all current military aid to Ukraine.
ТАСС (22:00 UTC, 22:09 UTC): Reports the US Cyber Command has been ordered to cease actions against Russia (22:00 UTC). Reports the US is considering cutting off all military aid to Ukraine (22:09 UTC).
Alex Parker Returns(22:00): Reports cancellation of a Zelensky lecture.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS(22:08): Reports Trump is considering stopping all military aid.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны(22:08): Reports on the consideration.
STERNENKO (22:09 UTC): Reports criticism of Trump by some Republicans.
Colonelcassad(22:04): Reports Chinese Media saying that the Trump administration is considering the possibility of suspending military aid.
НгП раZVедка(22:05): Reports that Washington is blocking funding for the Ukrainian energy sector.
Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC DEVELOPMENT for Ukraine. MULTIPLE SOURCES, including RUSSIAN, UKRAINIAN, and WESTERN MEDIA, are reporting this POSSIBILITY. If confirmed, this would SEVERELY CRIPPLE UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO DEFEND ITSELF and DRAMATICALLY SHIFT THE BALANCE OF POWER in favor of Russia. The CLAIMED REASONING, citing Zelensky's "intransigence" in the peace process, is a MAJOR CONCERN.
Оперативний ЗСУ (22:21 UTC): Reports Italy planning to gather an emergency summit between the USA, EU, and allies.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
ТАСС (22:14 UTC): Reports the AfD (Alternative for Germany) party advocating for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, even without Zelensky's supplication. POLITICAL POSITIONING.
Alex Parker Returns (22:21): Reports Trump invited White House staff to the luncheon prepared for Zelensky. PROPAGANDA.
Colonelcassad (22:22 UTC): Reports Grok (AI) generating images of Zelensky as a prisoner. PROPAGANDA.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (22:17 UTC): Reports Ukrainian delegation met with US representatives, who expressed support. INFORMATION WARFARE.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны(22:21): Questions the spending on Ukraine.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREMELY INTENSE AND ONGOING DRONE ATTACK ON KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The SUSTAINED AND INTENSIFIED DRONE ATTACK on KHARKIVCONTINUES, with AT LEAST EIGHT CONFIRMED STRIKES targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. ONE CHILD is CONFIRMED INJURED. The SCALE AND INTENSITY are EXTREME.
DRONE THREAT SPREADS TO KYIV, WIDESPREAD ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):KYIV is now under DIRECT THREAT from DRONES. A VERY LARGE NUMBER OF DRONES are reported across MULTIPLE REGIONS, indicating a MAJOR, COORDINATED ATTACK designed to OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES.
POTENTIAL CUT-OFF OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):MULTIPLE SOURCES report the TRUMP ADMINISTRATION is CONSIDERINGCUTTING OFF ALL MILITARY AID to Ukraine. This would be a CATASTROPHIC BLOW to Ukraine's war effort.
CONTINUED INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains a MAJOR THREAT.
CLAIMED ATTACK ON A RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains a MAJOR CONCERN.
CONFIRMED FATAL STRIKES IN ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains a MAJOR CONCERN.
UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS AT DAMAGE CONTROL (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Efforts to MAINTAIN MORALE and REASSERT INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT are underway, but the UNDERLYING CRISIS remains.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO INTENSIFIED AND EXPANDED DRONE THREAT ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS, INCLUDING KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in ALL THREATENED AREAS (Ukraine: Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, KYIV, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Cherkasy).
Deploy additional air defense assets to KYIV and OTHER THREATENED AREASIMMEDIATELY.
Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING in ALL AFFECTED AREAS, ESPECIALLY KYIV.
Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, especially POWER PLANTS, COMMUNICATION NETWORKS, and GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS.
Deploy ALL AVAILABLE counter-drone measures.
Focus air defense efforts on DETECTING AND INTERCEPTING DRONES. ANTICIPATE A SUSTAINED WAVE ATTACK and POTENTIAL TARGETING OF MULTIPLE LOCATIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY.
Coordinate air defense efforts with ALLIED FORCES to MAXIMIZE COVERAGE and INTERCEPTION RATES.
Assess the damage to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in KHARKIV. Provide immediate medical assistance to the INJURED CHILD and ANY OTHER CASUALTIES.
Dispatch DAMAGE CONTROL TEAMS to EXTINGUISH FIRES and REPAIR DAMAGE in KHARKIV.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL CUT-OFF OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
IMMEDIATELYENGAGE IN HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS with the US GOVERNMENT to CLARIFY THE SITUATION and ADVOCATE FOR CONTINUED SUPPORT.
URGENTLY SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF MILITARY AND FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE from EUROPEAN ALLIES, CANADA, and other potential partners. Prepare for a POTENTIAL COMPLETE CESSATION OF US AID.
Develop contingency plans for OPERATING WITHOUT US MILITARY ASSISTANCE. This includes RE-EVALUATING MILITARY STRATEGY, PRIORITIZING RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and POTENTIALLY SCALING BACK OPERATIONS.
Assess the impact of a potential aid cut-off on UKRAINE'S LONG-TERM MILITARY CAPABILITIES.
ADDRESS CLOSURE OF US ENERGY RESTORATION PROGRAM (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED. The situation is CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING.
Continue seeking alternative support and mitigating the consequences of lost assistance.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation has deteriorated DRAMATICALLY in the last 30 minutes. The INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, now DIRECTLY THREATENING KYIV, coupled with the POTENTIAL CUT-OFF OF US MILITARY AID, represents a TWO-PRONGED CRISIS of UNPRECEDENTED PROPORTIONS. The SURVIVAL OF UKRAINE AS A FUNCTIONING STATE is now AT IMMEDIATE AND EXTREME RISK. IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS, with TOP PRIORITY given to AIR DEFENSE across MULTIPLE REGIONS, SECURING ALTERNATIVE MILITARY AND FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, and ENGAGING IN HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMACY with the US GOVERNMENT. The POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN WAR EFFORT is now EXTREMELY HIGH. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS. IMMEDIATE AND MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS is PARAMOUNT.
