Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 21:53 UTC
Changes and New Information (21:23 UTC - 21:53 UTC)
CONTINUED INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS ON KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (21:26 UTC, 21:32 UTC, 21:40 UTC, 21:48 UTC, 21:52 UTC): Provides MULTIPLE UPDATES confirming CONTINUED AND INTENSE drone attacks:
Fourth strike in the Kholodnohirskyi district. Emergency services responding (21:26 UTC).
Fifth strike in the Shevchenkivskyi district, central part of the city (21:32 UTC).
One drone hit a medical facility, NO CASUALTIES reported at that time (21:40 UTC).
Fire on the roof of a three-story building due to a drone strike, emergency services responding (21:48 UTC).
Sixth strike in the Kyivskyi district, all strikes in the central part of the city (21:52 UTC).
РБК-Україна (21:28 UTC, 21:34 UTC, 21:38 UTC, 21:42 UTC): Confirms the MULTIPLE STRIKES on Kharkiv, including the FOURTH STRIKE in Kholodnohirskyi district (21:28 UTC), FIFTH STRIKE in Shevchenkivskyi district (21:34 UTC), a strike on a MEDICAL FACILITY with a fire (21:38 UTC), and NO CASUALTIES at the medical facility (21:42 UTC).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:32 UTC, 21:39 UTC): Reports drones heading DIRECTLY TOWARDS KHARKIV (21:32 UTC, 21:39 UTC).
Оперативний ЗСУ (21:36 UTC): Reports a MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK on Kharkiv, with FIVE STRIKES already (21:36 UTC). Reports a strike on a MEDICAL FACILITY (21:38 UTC).
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (21:41 UTC): Reports TWO MORE DRONES near Kharkiv and one new one flying towards the city.
Colonelcassad (21:42 UTC): Claims MULTIPLE STRIKES by Geran drones in Kharkiv. Claims that the number of Geran drones used in daily strikes is STEADILY INCREASING.
Assessment: The drone attacks on KHARKIV are CONTINUING WITH EXTREME INTENSITY. AT LEAST SIX SEPARATE STRIKES are CONFIRMED, targeting MULTIPLE DISTRICTS, all within the CENTRAL PART OF THE CITY. The TARGETING OF A MEDICAL FACILITY is CONFIRMED, although NO CASUALTIES are reported at this time. The SCALE of the attack suggests a DELIBERATE ATTEMPT TO OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES and CAUSE MAXIMUM DAMAGE. The CONTINUED ARRIVAL OF NEW DRONES indicates the ATTACK IS ONGOING.
US CLOSES UKRAINIAN ENERGY RESTORATION PROGRAM (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
TASS (21:31 UTC): Reports that the US has CLOSED a USAID program for restoring Ukraine's energy infrastructure, worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The program is reportedly CLOSED, not merely suspended.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with SEVERE IMPLICATIONS for Ukraine's ability to MAINTAIN POWER SUPPLY, especially given the CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. This FURTHER EXACERBATES the CRISIS caused by the COLLAPSE OF THE US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL. The TIMING of this closure, amid INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS, is PARTICULARLY DAMAGING. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ATTENTION and efforts to find ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SUPPORT for Ukraine's energy sector. This is CRITICAL to PREVENT A COLLAPSE OF UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (21:30 UTC): Reports that the whole world watched the negotiations, now considers Ukrainian people the "only guarantor" of the victory. Zelensky showed clear state position.
РБК-Україна (21:51 UTC) Reports a statement from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, reiterating Canada's support for Ukraine.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:39 UTC): Features a quote from actor Pedro Pascal, expressing support for Ukraine.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:41 UTC): Features a post in the name of Larry the Cat that says "Winston Churchill would be proud of Zelensky".
Janus Putkonen (21:51 UTC): Sarcastic post mocking Ukraine and the EU.
Assessment: Ukrainian and allied officials and celebrities are ATTEMPTING TO REASSERT their position and MAINTAIN MORALE in the face of the NEGATIVE OUTCOME of the TRUMP-ZELENSKY MEETING and the LOSS OF US SUPPORT. These are primarily for PUBLIC CONSUMPTION and INFORMATION WARFARE. The EMPHASIS is on RESILIENCE and CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Rybar (21:36 UTC): Reports on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT.
TASS(21:52): Reports fire in St. Petersburg. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREMELY INTENSE AND ONGOING DRONE ATTACK ON KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The SUSTAINED AND INTENSIFIED DRONE ATTACK on KHARKIVCONTINUES, with AT LEAST SIX CONFIRMED STRIKES targeting MULTIPLE DISTRICTS in the CENTRAL PART OF THE CITY. A MEDICAL FACILITY has been HIT, and NEW DRONES CONTINUE TO ARRIVE. This is a MAJOR AND ONGOING ATTACK.
US CLOSES UKRAINIAN ENERGY RESTORATION PROGRAM (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The CLOSURE of this CRITICAL PROGRAM significantly WEAKENS UKRAINE'S ABILITY TO MAINTAIN POWER SUPPLY, ESPECIALLY in light of CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS. This is a MAJOR BLOW to Ukraine's infrastructure and EXACERBATES THE EXISTING CRISIS.
CONTINUED INTENSE DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains a MAJOR THREAT.
CLAIMED ATTACK ON A RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains a MAJOR CONCERN.
CONFIRMED FATAL STRIKES IN ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains a MAJOR CONCERN.
UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS AT DAMAGE CONTROL (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Efforts to MAINTAIN MORALE and REASSERT INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT are underway, but the UNDERLYING CRISIS remains.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO INTENSIFIED AND EXPANDED DRONE THREATS ON KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in KHARKIV.
Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, especially MEDICAL FACILITIES and POWER PLANTS.
Deploy ALL AVAILABLE counter-drone measures.
Focus air defense efforts on DETECTING AND INTERCEPTING DRONES. ANTICIPATE A SUSTAINED WAVE ATTACK.
Assess the damage to the MEDICAL FACILITY and OTHER TARGETS. Provide immediate medical assistance if needed.
Dispatch DAMAGE CONTROL TEAMS to EXTINGUISH FIRES and REPAIR DAMAGE.
ADDRESS CLOSURE OF US ENERGY RESTORATION PROGRAM (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
IMMEDIATELY SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF FUNDING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE for ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE. Contact EUROPEAN ALLIES, CANADA, and other potential partners.
Assess the impact of the program's closure on UKRAINE'S ENERGY GRID.
Develop contingency plans for POWER OUTAGES and ENERGY SHORTAGES.
Prioritize the repair of EXISTING DAMAGE to ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
CONTINUE RESPONDING TO INTENSIFIED AND EXPANDED DRONE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in ALL THREATENED AREAS (Ukraine: Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, KYIV, Zaporizhzhia).
Deploy additional air defense assets where possible.
Continue counter-drone measures and FOCUS ON AREAS WITH HIGH DRONE ACTIVITY.
Focus air defense efforts on DETECTING AND INTERCEPTING DRONES. ANTICIPATE A SUSTAINED WAVE ATTACK.
Investigate the claimed attack on the KALININ NUCLEAR POWER PLANTIMMEDIATELY. Determine the extent of any damage and TAKE IMMEDIATE STEPS TO MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL RISKS.
ADDRESS COLLAPSE OF US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL AND AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED. The situation is CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. The CLOSURE OF THE US ENERGY RESTORATION PROGRAM makes this even MORE URGENT.
Continue seeking alternative support and mitigating the consequences of lost assistance.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation is now EVEN MORE CRITICAL due to the INTENSIFIED AND ONGOING DRONE ATTACKS ON KHARKIV and the CLOSURE OF THE US ENERGY RESTORATION PROGRAM. The COMBINED EFFECT of these developments poses an EXTREME THREAT to UKRAINE'S CIVILIAN POPULATION, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and OVERALL ABILITY TO WAGE WAR. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS, with TOP PRIORITY given to AIR DEFENSE in KHARKIV and SECURING ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT for ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The POTENTIAL FOR A COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN WAR EFFORT remains VERY HIGH. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS. The INCREASED EUROPEAN SUPPORT is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, but it is UNCLEAR whether it will be SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET THE LOSS OF US ASSISTANCE. IMMEDIATE AND MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS is PARAMOUNT.
