Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 21:23 UTC

Changes and New Information (20:53 UTC - 21:23 UTC)

1. CONTINUED AND EXPANDED DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (20:51 UTC, repeated in previous report): Provides a detailed breakdown of drone movements: 3 drones from Dnipropetrovsk to Kirovohrad Oblast, 2 south of Kamianske, 3 near Lozova (Kharkiv Oblast), 1 near Poltava, 2 from Dnipropetrovsk to Poltava Oblast, 2 near Balakliia, 2 west of Kharkiv, 8 from Sumy Oblast towards/through Pryluky, 4 towards/through Konotop, 1 near Okhtyrka, and 1 each near Chernihiv and Nizhyn (heading west).

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:59 UTC, 21:01 UTC, 21:07 UTC, 21:14 UTC, 21:21 UTC): Reports multiple drone threats and movements:

     • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones approaching the regional center (20:59 UTC).
     • Kyiv Oblast: Threat of attack drones (21:01 UTC).
     • Ballistic weapons threat from the north (21:07 UTC).
     • A fast-moving target was reported in Donetsk, heading to Kharkiv.
     • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Drones moving northeast (21:21 UTC).
     • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Some drones towards Kirovohrad Oblast, others heading north (21:21 UTC).
     • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones moving west (21:21 UTC).
     • Kharkiv Oblast: Some drones heading south, others north (21:21 UTC).
     • Poltava Oblast: Drones heading northwest (21:21 UTC).
     • Sumy Oblast: Drones heading southwest (21:21 UTC).
     • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones heading southwest, towards Kyiv Oblast (21:21 UTC).

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (21:02 UTC): Reports Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Crimea, with at least 7 drones reportedly shot down.

   • Colonelcassad (21:07 UTC): Claims Ukrainian drones attempted to attack the Kalinin Nuclear Power Plant, but were shot down. Claims future similar attacks are expected.

   • Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration (21:12, 21:15 UTC): Reports another drone strike in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, near residential buildings. Information on casualties is being verified.

   • РБК-Україна (21:13, 21:16, 21:18 UTC): Confirms drone attacks in Kharkiv. Reports a second strike directly opposite a high-rise building, with windows shattered.

   • Assessment: The drone attacks are CONTINUING AND EXPANDING GEOGRAPHICALLY, with NEW THREATS to KYIV OBLAST. The NUMBER OF DRONES REPORTED remains HIGH, and the MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS of movement suggest a COORDINATED AND SUSTAINED EFFORT to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. The REPORTED ATTACKS ON KHARKIV are CONFIRMED, with MULTIPLE STRIKES near RESIDENTIAL AREAS. The UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS ON CRIMEA are REPORTED and REQUIRE VERIFICATION, but suggest CONTINUED UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to TARGET RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED TERRITORY. The CLAIMED ATTACK ON THE KALININ NUCLEAR POWER PLANT is EXTREMELY SERIOUS and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION, as any damage to a nuclear facility could have CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES.

2. CONFIRMED STRIKES IN ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Два майора (20:46 UTC): Reports strikes in Illichivsk Port, Odesa (video message). [Analysis of the video confirms the strikes.]

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:55 UTC): Reports another drone attack on Odesa Oblast, resulting in one death.

   • РБК-Україна (21:01 UTC): Confirms the drone attack on Odesa, with one death and one injury. A private house, an enterprise, and vehicles were damaged.

   • Assessment: CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS on ODESA OBLAST, resulting in AT LEAST ONE DEATH and SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. The TARGETING OF ILLICHIVSK PORT is CONFIRMED and indicates a RENEWED RUSSIAN EFFORT to DISRUPT UKRAINIAN MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE.

3. AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: CONTINUED FALLOUT AND REPERCUSSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, MIXED SOURCES):

   • All previously reported developments remain relevant, with significant additions.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS AND PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • All previous information and analysis are still valid, but is now de-prioritized due to more urgent matters.

5. OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • All previous information and analysis are still valid, but is now de-prioritized due to more urgent matters.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREMELY WIDESPREAD AND INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A MAJOR AND SUSTAINED WAVE of DRONE ATTACKS is underway, targeting MULTIPLE OBLASTS, including NEW THREATS to KYIV OBLAST. MULTIPLE STRIKES CONFIRMED IN KHARKIV near RESIDENTIAL AREAS. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS reported in CRIMEA. CLAIMED ATTACK on a RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT requires URGENT INVESTIGATION.
• CONFIRMED FATAL STRIKES IN ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS on ODESA OBLAST, resulting in DEATHS and DAMAGE, including TARGETING OF ILLICHIVSK PORT.
• US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL COLLAPSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): This situation remains critical.
• EUROPEAN LEADERS INTENSIFY SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): This situation remains critical.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO INTENSIFIED AND EXPANDED DRONE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in ALL THREATENED AREAS (Ukraine: Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, KYIV, Zaporizhzhia).
   • Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING in ALL AFFECTED AREAS, including KYIV.
   • Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, POPULATION CENTERS, and NUCLEAR FACILITIES.
   • Deploy counter-drone measures where possible, FOCUSING ON AREAS WITH HIGH DRONE ACTIVITY.
   • Focus air defense efforts on DETECTING AND INTERCEPTING DRONES before they reach their targets. ANTICIPATE A SUSTAINED WAVE ATTACK designed to OVERWHELM DEFENSES.
   • Investigate the claimed attack on the KALININ NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IMMEDIATELY. Determine the extent of any damage and TAKE IMMEDIATE STEPS TO MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL RISKS.

2. RESPOND TO STRIKES IN ODESA AND KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Provide immediate medical assistance to the injured in ODESA AND KHARKIV.
   • Assess the damage and PROVIDE SUPPORT to affected residents and businesses.
   • Gather intelligence to determine the ORIGIN AND TARGETS of the drones.
   • Strengthen security measures around PORT INFRASTRUCTURE in ODESA.

3. INVESTIGATE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS ON CRIMEA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported attacks.
   • Assess the implications for RUSSIAN DEFENSES in CRIMEA.

4. ADDRESS COLLAPSE OF US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL AND AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED. The situation is CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING.
   • Remain focused on this, it is a priority.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation is now EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The INTENSIFIED AND EXPANDED DRONE ATTACKS, including the CONFIRMED STRIKES IN ODESA AND KHARKIV and the POTENTIAL THREAT TO KYIV, pose an IMMEDIATE AND SEVERE DANGER. The CLAIMED ATTACK ON A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT is a MAJOR CONCERN. The COLLAPSE OF THE US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL and the UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING US SUPPORT have created a MAJOR CRISIS. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS, particularly in SECURING ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT, MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF LOST US ASSISTANCE, and RESPONDING TO THE IMMEDIATE THREATS. The POTENTIAL FOR A COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN WAR EFFORT is now VERY HIGH. The INCREASED EUROPEAN SUPPORT is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, but it is UNCLEAR whether it will be SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET THE LOSS OF US ASSISTANCE. IMMEDIATE AND MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS is PARAMOUNT.