Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 20:53 UTC
Changes and New Information (20:23 UTC - 20:53 UTC)
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (20:51 UTC): Reports 3 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving into Kirovohrad Oblast, 2 drones south of Kamianske, 3 drones in the Lozova area of Kharkiv Oblast, 1 drone near Poltava, 2 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving into Poltava Oblast, 2 drones near Balakliia, 2 drones west of Kharkiv, 8 drones from Sumy Oblast heading towards/through Pryluky, 4 drones heading towards/through Konotop, 1 drone near Okhtyrka, and 1 drone each near Chernihiv and Nizhyn, heading west.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:49 UTC): Reports a threat of attack drones in Kirovohrad Oblast.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:44 UTC): Reports "Shahed" drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading west, "Shahed" drones on the borders of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts heading southwest, and "Shahed" drones in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts heading southwest.
Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUATION AND POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION of the DRONE ATTACKS. The NUMBER OF DRONES REPORTED by Nikolaevskiy Vanyok is SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER than in the previous update, suggesting a POSSIBLE MAJOR WAVE is underway. The GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD remains WIDE, covering MULTIPLE OBLASTS (Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv). The REPORTED MOVEMENT towards the WEST AND SOUTHWEST is consistent with previous patterns, but the SHEER VOLUME suggests a POTENTIAL EFFORT TO OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. The reported movement through BALAKLIIA AND NEAR KHARKIV suggests an INCREASED THREAT LEVEL to MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS. IMMEDIATE AND MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS is CRITICAL.
REPORTED STRIKES AND AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (20:47 UTC): Reports aircraft taking off, but without repeat launches so far.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (20:45 UTC): Reports KAB launches towards Antonivka.
* Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:47): Reported KAB launches in Kherson Oblast.
* Два майора (20:46 UTC): Reports strikes in Illichivsk Port, Odesa. [Video message]
* ТАСС (20:46 UTC): Reports drone fragments found in an apartment in Tver Oblast.
* Assessment: The REPORTED KAB LAUNCHES in KHERSON OBLAST (ANTONIVKA) indicate CONTINUED RUSSIAN AERIAL BOMBARDMENT of FRONT-LINE AREAS. The REPORTED STRIKES IN ILLICHIVSK PORT (ODESA) are SIGNIFICANT and REQUIRE VERIFICATION, as this could indicate a RENEWED EFFORT TO TARGET UKRAINE'S PORT INFRASTRUCTURE. The DISCOVERY OF DRONE FRAGMENTS IN TVER OBLAST indicates UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITYDEEP WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY, highlighting the EXTENDED REACH of these systems.
AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: CONTINUED FALLOUT AND REPERCUSSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, MIXED SOURCES):
Trump Cancels Mineral Deal Signing (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, TASS):
ТАСС (20:33 UTC): Reports Trump canceled the signing ceremony for the mineral agreement between the US and Ukraine, citing a White House representative (Reuters source).
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, indicating a COMPLETE BREAKDOWN in the US-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS. The CANCELLATION OF THE SIGNING CEREMONY is a STRONG SIGNAL OF DISAPPROVAL and SERIOUSLY JEOPARDIZES the PROPOSED DEAL. This SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE RISK to UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC AND SECURITY SITUATION.
Zelenskyy Did Not Understand His Status (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, TASS):
ТАСС (20:38 UTC): Reports Rodion Miroshnik (former LPR ambassador to Russia) stating Zelenskyy did not understand his status at the White House and received a serious rebuke from Trump with serious consequences for Ukraine.
Assessment: This provides a PRO-RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on the MEETING'S FAILURE, portraying ZELENSKYY as WEAK AND OUT OF TOUCH. It REINFORCES THE NARRATIVE of a MAJOR RIFT between ZELENSKYY AND TRUMP.
US Treasury Secretary Questions Deal (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Оперативний ЗСУ (20:31) stated that the U.S. Treasury Secretary questioned the prospects of returning Washington to the deal with Ukraine on minerals.
РБК-Україна (20:32 UTC): Reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating it is "very difficult to make an economic deal with a leader who does not want to make a peace deal."
Assessment: This provides FURTHER EVIDENCE of INTERNAL US OPPOSITION to the MINERAL DEAL, specifically citing ZELENSKYY'S PERCEIVED UNWILLINGNESS to NEGOTIATE A PEACE SETTLEMENT. This SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS the PROSPECTS FOR THE DEAL'S IMPLEMENTATION.
European Leaders Continue Support (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (20:27 UTC): Reports multiple European leaders expressing support for Ukraine, including the French Foreign Minister, Czech Prime Minister, Latvian Prime Minister, Dutch Foreign Minister, Lithuanian President, Moldovan President, and Norwegian Prime Minister.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ (20:33, 20:35, 20:44 UTC): Report Kaja Kallas (Estonian Prime Minister) stating Europe will increase support for Ukraine and that the free world needs a new leader.
STERNENKO (20:39): Reports that the European leaders are still supportive of Ukraine.
Assessment: This demonstrates a CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED COMMITMENT from KEY EUROPEAN LEADERS to SUPPORT UKRAINE, despite the US-UKRAINE TENSIONS. The CALL FOR EUROPEAN LEADERSHIP by KAJA KALLAS is PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT, suggesting a POTENTIAL SHIFT in the BALANCE OF SUPPORT, with EUROPE POSSIBLY TAKING A MORE PROMINENT ROLE. This HIGHLIGHTS A GROWING DIVERGENCE between US AND EUROPEAN APPROACHES to the CONFLICT.
Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:50 UTC): Report Elon Musk stating, "Zelensky has been fired from his acting job."
Assessment: This is a COMMENTARY and DOES NOT REPRESENT OFFICIAL POLICY.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS AND PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (20:43 UTC): Reports the destruction of a Ukrainian headquarters in Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, allegedly based on information from Danish journalists. Claims an Iskander strike was used.
ТАСС (20:25) claims that Zelensky threatened Trump that he will see problems, suggesting that Kiev has terrorist methods.
Assessment: The CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF A UKRAINIAN HEADQUARTERSREQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The SOURCE IS PRO-RUSSIAN, and the ALLEGED USE OF DANISH JOURNALISTS' INFORMATION is UNUSUAL AND POTENTIALLY PROPAGANDISTIC. This highlights the IMPORTANCE OF VERIFYING INFORMATION from CONFLICT ZONES.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Старше Эдды (20:44) fantasizes about Russian and US soldiers hugging again.
MoD Russia (20:30 UTC): Provides a daily news summary, claiming strikes on energy facilities and military infrastructure, and the "liberation" of Novaya Sorochina. Claims continued operations in the Kursk region.
Два майора (20:30) published the official statement from the White House, regarding the conflict.
Два майора (20:30) states that USA will continue its anti-Russian policy.
Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (20:43) states that, despite pressure, Ukraine will not betray the interests of Ukrainians, and calls for fair peace.
Updated Situation Summary
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD AND INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A POTENTIALLY MAJOR WAVE of DRONE ATTACKS is underway, targeting MULTIPLE OBLASTS with a SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER NUMBER OF DRONES than previously reported.
US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL COLLAPSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Trump CANCELED THE SIGNING CEREMONY, indicating a COMPLETE BREAKDOWN in NEGOTIATIONS. The US TREASURY SECRETARY expressed STRONG DOUBTS about the DEAL.
EUROPEAN LEADERS INTENSIFY SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED):MULTIPLE LEADERSREAFFIRM AND STRENGTHEN their COMMITMENT to UKRAINE, with KAJA KALLAS calling for EUROPEAN LEADERSHIP. This suggests a POTENTIAL SHIFT in the BALANCE OF SUPPORT.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Claims of strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and a headquarters. REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY DEEP INSIDE RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone fragments found in Tver Oblast.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO INTENSIFIED DRONE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in ALL THREATENED AREAS (Ukraine: Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv).
Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
Deploy counter-drone measures where possible.
Focus air defense efforts on DETECTING AND INTERCEPTING DRONES before they reach their targets. ANTICIPATE A POTENTIAL WAVE ATTACK designed to OVERWHELM DEFENSES.
ADDRESS COLLAPSE OF US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED. The situation is CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING.
Urgently seek clarification from US OFFICIALS regarding the REASONS FOR THE CANCELLATION of the MINERAL DEAL and the PROSPECTS FOR ANY FUTURE AGREEMENT.
Immediately activate contingency plans for OPERATING WITHOUT US FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC SUPPORT. This includes:
Identifying alternative sources of funding and investment.
Prioritizing essential expenditures.
Preparing for potential economic instability.
URGENTLYintensify diplomatic efforts with EUROPEAN ALLIES to SECURE UNCONDITIONAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC SUPPORT. Emphasize the existential threat and the POTENTIAL FOR REGIONAL INSTABILITY. Explore all options for INCREASING ASSISTANCE, including BYPASSING US CHANNELS if necessary.
Focus diplomatic efforts on EUROPEAN ALLIES, given their REAFFIRMATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF SUPPORT. EXPLORE THE POSSIBILITY of INCREASED EUROPEAN LEADERSHIP in PROVIDING ASSISTANCE to UKRAINE.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE reported Russian strikes, particularly the alleged headquarters destruction in Yunakivka.
Focus on areas mentioned in Russian reports.
MONITOR DRONE ACTIVITY DEEP INSIDE RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Investigate the incident in TVER OBLAST to DETERMINE THE ORIGIN AND TARGET of the UKRAINIAN DRONE.
Assess the implications for RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE VULNERABILITIES.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation is now EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The INTENSIFIED DRONE ATTACKS pose an IMMEDIATE AND SEVERE THREAT, while the COLLAPSE OF THE US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL and the UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING US SUPPORT have created a MAJOR CRISIS. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS, particularly in SECURING ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT and MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF LOST US ASSISTANCE. The POTENTIAL FOR A COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN WAR EFFORT is now VERY HIGH. The INCREASED EUROPEAN SUPPORT is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, but it is UNCLEAR whether it will be SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET THE LOSS OF US ASSISTANCE.
