Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 20:23 UTC
Changes and New Information (19:53 UTC - 20:23 UTC)
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE THREATS AND AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:58 UTC): Reports "Shahed" drones in Odesa Oblast heading west, "Shahed" drones on the borders of Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and in Kharkiv Oblast heading southwest, and "Shahed" drones in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts heading southwest.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:59): Reports threat of attack drones use in Poltava.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (20:02 UTC): Reports the south and sea are clear of drones for now. Reports 2 drones south of Pavlohrad, 3 drones moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Poltava Oblast, 3 drones flying through Balakliia heading west, and 3 drones west of Sumy.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:08): Reported KAB launches in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian MoD (TASS, 20:20): Claimed to shoot down 17 drones.
Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUATION AND POTENTIAL SHIFT IN FOCUS of the DRONE ATTACKS. While some areas (south and sea near Odesa, per Nikolaevskiy Vanyok) may be temporarily clear, MULTIPLE DRONE GROUPS are ACTIVE in OTHER REGIONS (Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv). The REPORTED SHIFT towards the SOUTHWEST is SIGNIFICANT and REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING. The CLAIMED DOWNING OF 17 DRONES by the RUSSIAN MOD needs VERIFICATION, and that information has been tagged with the current beliefs.
REPORTED STRIKES AND AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Igor Artamonov (20:15 UTC): Announced the end of the drone attack threat in Lipetsk, but maintaining yellow alert.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok: (20:16 UTC): Reports that after a drone was downed, there were no consequences on the ground.
Assessment: The CANCELLATION OF THE DRONE ATTACK THREAT in LIPETSK indicates a POSSIBLE DE-ESCALATION in that area. However, the CONTINUED "YELLOW ALERT" suggests ONGOING VIGILANCE is needed.
AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: CONTINUED FALLOUT AND REPERCUSSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, MIXED SOURCES):
US State Department Halts Energy Infrastructure Support (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (19:54 UTC), RBC-Ukraine (19:55 UTC), Alex Parker Returns (20:01 UTC), Операція Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:01 UTC), STERNENKO (20:03 UTC), ASTRA (20:07 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (20:10 UTC): Report the US State Department is halting programs to support the restoration of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. RBC-Ukraine cites NBC News and reports that USAID's initiative, which invested hundreds of millions of dollars, has been stopped.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCE of the MEETING'S FAILURE. It represents a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to UKRAINE'S ABILITY to REPAIR AND MAINTAIN its CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, making it MORE VULNERABLE to RUSSIAN ATTACKS. This DIRECTLY IMPACTS UKRAINE'S WARFIGHTING CAPABILITY.
USAID Personnel Reduction in Ukraine (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (20:06 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (20:10 UTC), Alex Parker Returns (20:10 UTC): Report that USAID personnel in Ukraine will be reduced from 64 to 8.
Assessment: This is a further sign of rapidly decreasing USA Support.
White House Statement on Failed Negotiations (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RBC-UKRAINE):
RBC-Ukraine (20:01 UTC): Reports a White House statement saying that Trump and Vance "will always defend the interests of the American people and those who respect the position of the United States in the world" and "will never allow the American people to be taken advantage of."
Assessment: This statement provides the OFFICIAL US RATIONALE for the BREAKDOWN IN TALKS. It suggests that the US FELT UKRAINE WAS MAKING UNREASONABLE DEMANDS or NOT ALIGNING WITH US INTERESTS.
Reported Details of Meeting Fallout (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RBC-UKRAINE):
RBC-Ukraine (20:01 UTC), citing CNN: Reports that after the argument, Trump consulted with advisors and concluded Zelenskyy was "not in a position to negotiate." He reportedly instructed his staff to tell Zelenskyy to leave the White House. The Ukrainian delegation was reportedly waiting in a separate room and was not invited to stay for lunch.
Assessment: This provides FURTHER DETAILS on the ABRUPT AND NEGATIVE END to the MEETING. It REINFORCES the impression of a MAJOR RIFT between TRUMP AND ZELENSKYY.
Lindsey Graham on Rare-Earth Metals Deal (REPORTED, Alex Parker Returns):
Alex Parker Returns (20:12): Reports Lindsey Graham stating that there is no chance for the US to return to the deal.
Assessment: This deal could be off the table indefinitely.
Continued European Support (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Tsaplienko_Ukraine_Fights (19:54 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (19:57 UTC): Report Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister, reaffirming unwavering support for Ukraine.
РБК-Україна (20:15 UTC): Reports Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, expressing support for Zelenskyy and Ukraine.
Оперативний ЗСУ (20:19): Reports that the Head of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, also supports the President of Ukraine.
STERNENKO (20:19 UTC): Reports Friedrich Merz stating support for Ukraine.
Assessment: These statements demonstrate a CONTINUED COMMITMENT from KEY EUROPEAN LEADERS to SUPPORT UKRAINE, despite the US-UKRAINE TENSIONS. This suggests a POTENTIAL SHIFT in the BALANCE OF SUPPORT, with EUROPE POSSIBLY TAKING A MORE PROMINENT ROLE.
Zelenskyy's Calls with Macron and Rutte (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Tsaplienko_Ukraine_Fights, РБК-Україна (both 20:10 UTC): Report Zelenskyy spoke with French President Macron and is now speaking with NATO Secretary General Rutte.
Assessment: This indicates IMMEDIATE DAMAGE CONTROL and EFFORTS TO SECURE ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT following the FAILED US MEETING. ZELENSKYY is likely seeking REASSURANCES and EXPLORING OPTIONS with KEY EUROPEAN ALLIES and NATO.
Ukrainian Reactions (Reported by STERNENKO, 20:20):
A message to donate to the Ukrainian military.
Assessment: This signals a new reliance on the Ukrainian people.
REPORTED CYBER OPERATIONS HALT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
KMVA (20:21 UTC), Colonelcassad (20:21 UTC): Report that the head of the Pentagon, Hesget, ordered the US Cyber Command to stop offensive cyber operations against Russia.
Assessment: This REQUIRES CONFIRMATION from OFFICIAL US SOURCES. If true, it would represent a MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY and could have SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS for the CYBER DIMENSION OF THE CONFLICT. This could signal a DESIRE TO DE-ESCALATE or a RE-EVALUATION OF US CYBER STRATEGY.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Dnevnik Desantnika (20:07 UTC): Claims a successful operation on February 28th, 1942.
ASTRA (20:14 UTC): Reports that former Gloria Jeans factories in Rostov Oblast will be repurposed to produce military uniforms.
Assessment: The REPURPOSING OF FACTORIES indicates a CONTINUED MOBILIZATION OF RESOURCES for the WAR EFFORT in RUSSIA.
Updated Situation Summary
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Attacks continue, with a potential shift in focus towards the southwest. Multiple drone groups active in various regions.
US HALTS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORT TO UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): A MAJOR BLOW to UKRAINE'S WARFIGHTING CAPABILITY, directly resulting from the FAILED US-UKRAINE MEETING. USAID personnel are also reportedly being reduced.
ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING AFTERMATH: CATASTROPHIC FAILURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): The meeting ended ABRUPTLY AND NEGATIVELY, with TRUMP REPORTEDLY ORDERING ZELENSKYY TO LEAVE THE WHITE HOUSE. The US-UKRAINE RELATIONSHIP is in DEEP CRISIS.
EUROPEAN LEADERS REAFFIRM SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Key European figures express CONTINUED SUPPORT, suggesting a POTENTIAL SHIFT in the BALANCE OF SUPPORT.
ZELENSKYY ENGAGES IN DAMAGE CONTROL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): He is speaking with MACRON and RUTTE to SECURE ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT.
REPORTED HALT TO US CYBER OPERATIONS AGAINST RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Requires confirmation, but if true, would represent a significant policy shift.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES AND STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):REQUIRE CAREFUL VERIFICATION, but provide details on ONGOING MILITARY ACTIVITY.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO DRONE THREATS AND ASSESS DAMAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in ALL THREATENED AREAS (Ukraine: Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv).
Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
Deploy counter-drone measures where possible.
Continue to monitor the situation in ODESA.
ADDRESS FALLOUT FROM ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING AND LOSS OF US SUPPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED. The situation is RAPIDLY DETERIORATING.
Urgently seek clarification from US OFFICIALS regarding the STATUS OF FUTURE AID, beyond the energy infrastructure support.
Immediately activate contingency plans for operating WITHOUT US assistance in repairing and maintaining energy infrastructure. This includes:
Identifying alternative sources of equipment and expertise.
Prioritizing repairs based on critical needs.
Implementing measures to harden existing infrastructure against further attacks.
Preparing for potential widespread power outages.
URGENTLYdispatch high-level envoys to ALL KEY ALLIES (EU, UK, Canada, etc.) to SECURE UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT. Emphasize the existential threat and the POTENTIAL FOR REGIONAL INSTABILITY if Ukraine is forced to capitulate. Explore all options for INCREASING MILITARY AND FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, including BYPASSING US CHANNELS if necessary.
Focus diplomatic efforts on EUROPEAN ALLIES, given their REAFFIRMATION OF SUPPORT.
Internally, prepare for a potential COLLAPSE OF PUBLIC MORALE. Develop a communication strategy to MAINTAIN UNITY and REINFORCE THE NARRATIVE OF RESISTANCE. Prepare for potential social unrest and POLITICAL INSTABILITY.
Prepare for POTENTIAL RUSSIAN EXPLOITATION. Anticipate increased Russian military pressure and PROPAGANDA EFFORTS aimed at CAPITALIZING ON THE CRISIS.
Start sourcing materials from alternative providers, to prevent a supply chain catastrophe.
VERIFY REPORTED HALT TO US CYBER OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Seek confirmation from OFFICIAL US SOURCES regarding the reported halt to offensive cyber operations against Russia.
Assess the potential implications for the CYBER DIMENSION OF THE CONFLICT.
Adjust defensive strategies accordingly.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES AND STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE reported Russian gains and strikes.
Focus on areas mentioned in Russian reports.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation is now EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS pose an IMMEDIATE THREAT, while the CATASTROPHIC FAILURE of the ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING and the SUBSEQUENT LOSS OF US SUPPORT have created a MAJOR CRISIS. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS, particularly in SECURING ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT and MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF LOST US ASSISTANCE. The POTENTIAL FOR A COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN WAR EFFORT is now SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED.
