Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 19:53 UTC
Changes and New Information (19:23 UTC - 19:53 UTC)
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE THREATS AND AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (19:27 UTC): Reports a drone was shot down ("minus po nemu").
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (19:36 UTC): Reports 2 drones approaching Chornomorsk/Odesa, warning of potential loud noises. (19:48 UTC) Two drones still approaching Chornomorsk, one drone north of Odesa with a northerly course.
Igor Artamonov (19:41 UTC): Announced a UAV attack threat in Lipetsk and Lipetsk region, urging people to stay home or seek shelter. (19:47 UTC) Reports air defense and suppression systems are active.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:51 UTC): Reports threat of strike UAV use in Chernihiv Oblast.
STERNENKO (19:47 UTC): Reports drone threats in Moscow, Smolensk, Lipetsk, Volgograd, Saratov, Tambov, Ryazan, Rostov, and Bryansk regions.
TASS (19:59 UTC): Reports a drone attack was repelled in Tver Oblast, with the process of eliminating the drones underway. (Quoted by Dva Mayora, 19:51 UTC).
Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUATION OF THE WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS, with CONFIRMED ACTIVITY in both UKRAINE (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv Oblasts) and RUSSIA (Lipetsk, Tver, and potentially other regions). The reports of "loud noises" and warnings to take shelter suggest IMMINENT THREATS in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. The widespread nature of the attacks suggests a COORDINATED EFFORT to OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES on BOTH SIDES.
REPORTED EXPLOSIONS IN ODESA/CHORNOMORSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Shef Hayabusa (19:20 UTC): Reports loud noises in Odesa, attributing them to "Shahed" drones.
ASTRA (19:52 UTC): Reports strong explosions in Odesa and near the port of Chornomorsk, citing local Telegram channels. Includes video.
Colonelcassad (19:44 UTC): Reports Russian strikes on port infrastructure, shows video of smoke.
Assessment:HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSFUL STRIKES, given MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE. The targeting of PORT INFRASTRUCTURE is CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUSSIAN EFFORTS to DISRUPT UKRAINIAN EXPORTS and MILITARY LOGISTICS. The IMPACT OF THESE STRIKES requires IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT.
AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: CONTINUED FALLOUT AND REPERCUSSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, MIXED SOURCES):
Zelenskyy's First Statement: Zelenskyy posted on social media thanking the US for support, the visit, and the American people. He emphasized the need for a "just and lasting peace." (RBC-Ukraine, Operativny ZSU, STERNENKO, ASTRA, Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny)
Yermak's Reaction: The Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, expressed support for Zelenskyy. (RBC-Ukraine)
Negative Reactions:
Senator Lindsey Graham: "Zelensky's behavior in the White House has made US aid almost impossible." (Voenkor Kotenok, Operativny ZSU) He suggested Zelensky must resign, be replaced, or change.
Former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul: Criticized pressure on Zelenskyy. (Operativny ZSU)
Former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell: Criticized Trump and Vance, expressing shame. (Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights)
Senator Chuck Schumer: Accused Trump and Vance of "doing Putin's dirty work." (RBC-Ukraine)
Former Trump Advisor John Bolton: Claimed Trump and Vance "announced they are on Russia's side in this war." (Tsaplienko Ukraine Fights)
Financial Times (via RBC-Ukraine): Reports European officials are "shocked" by the events in the Oval Office. One diplomat reportedly stated, "We (Europeans) are on our own" and described the Trump administration as "insane."
Russian Perspective:
Dnevnik Desantnika: Claims Trump stated Ukraine is losing the conflict and it's time to end hostilities, blaming the US, not people, for the "humiliating defeat."
Starshe Eddy: Mockingly refers to Zelenskyy as the "gatherer of Russian lands."
Kotsnews: Claims Russia has been stating its willingness for peace for three years, and now the world sees who truly wants peace.
Colonelcassad: Claims Lindsey Graham stated Zelenskyy made US aid almost impossible. Highlights the potential for Trump to leverage the situation to reduce aid to Ukraine. Notes European claims of continued support but acknowledges their limitations without US aid.
Arkhangel Spetsnaza: Urges caution and not to get overly excited by the situation, suggesting it might be a staged event. Emphasizes waiting for real consequences, such as the cessation of arms supplies.
Ukrainian Reactions (Reported by Mash na Donbasse): Screenshots of Ukrainian social media posts show a mixture of despair, anger, and defiance. Some express fear of increased Russian attacks.
Butusov Plus: Announced a live stream, on YouTube, to discuss that the US and Ukraine did not sign the deal, the ramifications of this, and take questions.
Assessment: The AFTERMATH of the meeting continues to be EXTREMELY NEGATIVE for US-UKRAINE RELATIONS. ZELENSKYY'S STATEMENT is a STANDARD EXPRESSION OF GRATITUDE and DOES NOT ADDRESS THE CONTROVERSY DIRECTLY. The STRONG NEGATIVE REACTIONS from US AND EUROPEAN OFFICIALS, combined with RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA EFFORTS, paint a picture of DEEPENING CRISIS. The POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN US AID is now VERY HIGH.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Rybar (19:29): Reports claimed Russian strikes on the power grid in Kharkiv, as well as Sumy, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk.
Rybar: Claims fighting is happening in the urban area of Dzerzhynsk. Also claims the liberation of Burlatske and Skudne, and ongoing fights for Pryvilne.
Dnevnik Desantnika (19:51 UTC): Provides a daily summary, claiming Russian advances in multiple areas (Krasnoarmeysk, Kharkov, Kupyansk, Velikonovoselkovsk, Kursk, Krasnolimansk, Seversk, Zaporizhzhia, Dzerzhinsk directions). Claims successful strikes on military targets and fuel depots. Reports increased Ukrainian troop concentrations and trench networks.
KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) (19:45 UTC): Posted a message of support for Ukrainian soldiers, stating "We must stand strong in support of those who are fighting for us."
Assessment: These reports provide ADDITIONAL DETAILS on the ONGOING MILITARY SITUATION, but REQUIRE CAREFUL VERIFICATION. The RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL STRIKES should be treated with CAUTION, as they are likely to be INFLATED FOR PROPAGANDA PURPOSES.
Updated Situation Summary
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Attacks targeting both UKRAINE (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv) and RUSSIA (Lipetsk, Tver, and potentially others). IMMINENT THREAT in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS.
PROBABLE SUCCESSFUL STRIKES ON ODESA/CHORNOMORSK PORT INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):HIGH PROBABILITY of SUCCESSFUL STRIKES, with potential to DISRUPT UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS.
ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING AFTERMATH: DEEPENING CRISIS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED):ZELENSKYY'S STATEMENT is STANDARD, but NEGATIVE REACTIONS from US AND EUROPEAN OFFICIALS, coupled with RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, indicate a MAJOR RIFT in US-UKRAINE RELATIONS. The POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED US AID is now VERY HIGH.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES AND STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):REQUIRE CAREFUL VERIFICATION, but provide details on ONGOING MILITARY ACTIVITY.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
RESPOND TO DRONE THREATS AND ASSESS DAMAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in ALL THREATENED AREAS (Ukraine: Odesa, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv; Russia: Lipetsk, Tver, and others reported).
Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
Deploy counter-drone measures where possible.
IMMEDIATELY ASSESS DAMAGE in ODESA/CHORNOMORSK, focusing on PORT INFRASTRUCTURE and MILITARY ASSETS.
Determine the impact on UKRAINIAN EXPORT CAPABILITIES and MILITARY LOGISTICS.
Develop contingency plans for ALTERNATIVE EXPORT ROUTES and SUPPLY LINES.
ADDRESS FALLOUT FROM ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED. The situation is DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
Urgently seek clarification from US OFFICIALS regarding the STATUS OF FUTURE AID.
Prepare for the IMMEDIATE CESSATION OF US AID. Activate all contingency plans for SUSTAINING THE WAR EFFORT without US support.
URGENTLYdispatch high-level envoys to ALL KEY ALLIES (EU, UK, Canada, etc.) to SECURE UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT. Emphasize the existential threat and the POTENTIAL FOR REGIONAL INSTABILITY if Ukraine is forced to capitulate. Explore all options for INCREASING MILITARY AND FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, including BYPASSING US CHANNELS if necessary.
Internally, prepare for a potential COLLAPSE OF PUBLIC MORALE. Develop a communication strategy to MAINTAIN UNITY and REINFORCE THE NARRATIVE OF RESISTANCE. Prepare for potential social unrest and POLITICAL INSTABILITY.
Prepare for POTENTIAL RUSSIAN EXPLOITATION. Anticipate increased Russian military pressure and PROPAGANDA EFFORTS aimed at CAPITALIZING ON THE CRISIS.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES AND STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE reported Russian gains and strikes.
Focus on areas mentioned in Russian reports (Kharkiv, Sumy, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Dzerzhinsk, Burlatskoe, Skudne, Pryvilne, and others).
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation is now EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS pose an IMMEDIATE THREAT, while the FALLOUT FROM THE ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING has created a MAJOR CRISIS in US-UKRAINE RELATIONS, with the POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN US AID. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE and ENSURE UKRAINE'S SURVIVAL.
