Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 19:23 UTC
Changes and New Information (18:53 UTC - 19:23 UTC)
CONFIRMED DRONE THREATS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:54, 19:02, 19:03, 19:17 UTC): Reports threat of attack drones in Donetsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa Oblasts. "Shahed" drones are reported in the center of Sumy region, moving south, and in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa.
Миколаївський Ваньок (19:05 UTC): Reports one drone approaching Mykolaiv via Kulbakino, expecting loud noises. (19:18 UTC) One drone approaching Mykolaiv and one headed toward Oleksandrivka.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:20 UTC): Reports loud explosions in Odesa, attributing them to "Shahed" drones.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:12): "Shahed" in the Odesa district.
Assessment: This indicates a WIDESPREAD AND ONGOING RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The reports of drones in ODESA, MYKOLAIV, DONETSK, SUMY, and potentially DNIPROPETROVSK Oblasts suggest a COORDINATED EFFORT to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. The reports of "loud noises" and the warning to stay in shelters indicate IMMINENT THREAT.
AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, MIXED SOURCES):
Zelenskyy's Status: Zelenskyy will remain in the USA. It's up to Ukraine whether the meeting will be rescheduled (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна 19:20).
Trump's Stance: A high-ranking US official told Reuters that Trump does not rule out an agreement with Zelensky, but only when Ukraine is ready for a constructive conversation (РБК-Україна).
Upcoming Zelensky Interview: Confirmed: Zelenskyy will give an exclusive interview on Fox News (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, НгП раZVедка). The interview is to take place at 1:00 AM Kyiv Time. Fox News claims the interview is happening AFTER Zelenskyy's early departure from the White House.
Zelensky to visit London: Zelensky will travel to London this Sunday to give the European Leaders an unfiltered report (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS).
White House Expulsion Claims (Russian Sources): Multiple Russian sources (НгП раZVедка, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок) continue to claim Zelenskyy was "expelled" from the White House. Fox News, via НгП раZVедка, claims Zelenskyy and his team were "literally thrown out."
Ukrainian/Allied Reactions:
Polish Prime Minister Tusk: "Dear President Zelensky, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone" (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS).
Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez: "Ukraine, Spain is with you" (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS).
Deputy leader of the CDU (Germany): "Europe will not betray Ukraine" (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS).
French president Emmanuel Macron: "Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is a country that has been subjected to aggression. We must respect those who have fought from the very beginning," (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ).
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:17) reports Senator Schumer calling Trump a "coward" and Zelensky a "hero".
Russian Reactions:
Maria Zakharova (Russian MFA): Suggested watching Zelenskyy's departure from the White House with music from the band "Leningrad" (known for its provocative lyrics) (ТАСС).
Medvedev: Called the meeting a "fierce thrashing" and stated that Trump had told the truth: "The Kyiv regime is playing with World War III." (Два майора, ТАСС, Басурин о главном).
Два майора claims Polish and German politicians are pledging to "not abandon Ukraine."
Colonelcassad: Claims Trump administration officials will activate investigations into the spending of US military aid in Ukraine, focusing on "theft, corruption, and misuse of American taxpayer money."
ТАСС (19:21) reports that Shoigu and Xi Jinping emphasized the inadmissibility of spreading NATO's area of responsibility to the Asia-Pacific region.
Financial Agreement Cancellation Confirmed: White House Press Secretary confirms the mineral deal was not signed (ТАСС, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок).
Reported Corruption Investigation: officials associated with Trump said that investigations will be activated soon (Colonelcassad).
Assessment: The meeting's aftermath remains EXTREMELY NEGATIVE for US-UKRAINE RELATIONS. The CONFIRMED CANCELLATION OF THE MINERAL AGREEMENT, the UNCERTAIN STATUS OF FUTURE MEETINGS, and the STRONG STATEMENTS FROM ALLIED LEADERS SUPPORTING UKRAINE all indicate a MAJOR RIFT. The RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE is ACTIVELY EXPLOITING THE SITUATION, portraying Ukraine as WEAK, ISOLATED, and HUMILIATED. The UPCOMING FOX NEWS INTERVIEW is a CRITICAL OPPORTUNITY for ZELENSKYY to PRESENT HIS PERSPECTIVE and ATTEMPT TO REPAIR THE DAMAGE. The planned trip to London demonstrates a commitment to maintaining EUROPEAN SUPPORT.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Alex Parker Returns claims the meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump without journalists was "heated."
Alex Parker Returns states that Trump has a good understanding with Putin, calling him a very intelligent politician and a strong personality.
Alex Parker Returns: Suggests an investigation into the "fraud and embezzlement of aid to Ukraine" will be one response to Zelenskyy's actions. White House officials reportedly told the American press that Trump "expelled" Zelenskyy and prematurely ended the negotiations.
Север.Реалии: Lists multiple events, including that Trump and Zelenskyy argued in the White House, the deal was cancelled, and the FSB accused the Ukraine of attempting to blow up Metropolitan Tikhon of Simferopol and Crimea.
Alex Parker Returns claimed Zelenskyy was asked to leave the USA as soon as possible.
ASTRA: Reported that 5 pieces of Russian equipment were damaged two days ago due to shelling.
ASTRA (19:20) claims Russia-linked Telegram channels are offering payment for attacks on mosques in the UK. The information has reportedly been passed to counter-terrorism police.
Updated Situation Summary
ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: CATASTROPHIC COLLAPSE, US-UKRAINE RELATIONS IN DEEP CRISIS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The meeting ended in TOTAL FAILURE, with the MINERAL AGREEMENT UNSINGED and a MAJOR RIFT in US-UKRAINE RELATIONS. RUSSIAN SOURCES are AGGRESSIVELY EXPLOITING the situation.
UPCOMING ZELENSKYY INTERVIEW ON FOX NEWS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This is a CRITICAL MOMENT for ZELENSKYY to RESPOND PUBLICLY and ATTEMPT TO SALVAGE the situation.
WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):IMMINENT THREAT in MULTIPLE REGIONS, including ODESA, MYKOLAIV, DONETSK, and SUMY.
ZELENSKYY TO VISIT LONDON (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Indicates an effort to MAINTAIN EUROPEAN SUPPORT after the US MEETING FAILURE.
ALLIED LEADERS REAFFIRM SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Statements from POLAND, SPAIN, FRANCE and GERMANY provide a COUNTERBALANCE to the NEGATIVE OUTCOME of the US MEETING.
POTENTIAL INVESTIGATION INTO US AID TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian sources claim an investigation into "theft and corruption" is imminent.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA: UNCERTAIN, CONTRADICTORY REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Status remains UNCLEAR.
MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):UNPRECEDENTED SCALE of UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS within RUSSIA and OCCUPIED CRIMEA.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
DAMAGE CONTROL AND SECURE ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED. The situation has deteriorated further.
Prepare for the IMMEDIATE CESSATION OF US AID. Activate all contingency plans for SUSTAINING THE WAR EFFORT without US support.
URGENTLYdispatch high-level envoys to ALL KEY ALLIES (EU, UK, Canada, etc.) to SECURE UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT. Emphasize the existential threat and the POTENTIAL FOR REGIONAL INSTABILITY if Ukraine is forced to capitulate. Explore all options for INCREASING MILITARY AND FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, including BYPASSING US CHANNELS if necessary.
Internally, prepare for a potential COLLAPSE OF PUBLIC MORALE. Develop a communication strategy to MAINTAIN UNITY and REINFORCE THE NARRATIVE OF RESISTANCE. Prepare for potential social unrest and POLITICAL INSTABILITY.
Prepare for POTENTIAL RUSSIAN EXPLOITATION. Anticipate increased Russian military pressure and PROPAGANDA EFFORTS aimed at CAPITALIZING ON THE CRISIS.
Prepare for a potential investigation. Begin compiling information to ensure a smooth process.
MONITOR AND PREPARE FOR ZELENSKYY'S FOX NEWS INTERVIEW (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED.
Gather any new intelligence on possible questions and prepare answers.
RESPOND TO WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in ALL THREATENED REGIONS (ODESA, MYKOLAIV, DONETSK, SUMY, and potentially DNIPROPETROVSK).
Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
Prepare for potential casualties and damage. Deploy emergency response teams as needed.
CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND RESPOND TO MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect.
CLARIFY SITUATION NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
All previous recommendations remain in effect.This is URGENT.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation is now EVEN MORE CRITICAL than before. The COMPLETE BREAKDOWN of the ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING, the CANCELLATION OF THE MINERAL AGREEMENT, and the IMMINENT THREAT OF US SUPPORT WITHDRAWAL represent an EXISTENTIAL CRISIS for Ukraine. The WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS add IMMEDIATE MILITARY PRESSURE. ZELENSKYY'S UPCOMING FOX NEWS INTERVIEW and TRIP TO LONDON are KEY OPPORTUNITIES to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE and SECURE CONTINUED SUPPORT. IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required across ALL FRONTS (military, diplomatic, and informational) to ADDRESS THIS MULTI-FACETED CRISIS. The RISK OF A FORCED AND UNFAVORABLE SETTLEMENT is now EXTREMELY HIGH. The LONG-TERM SURVIVAL OF UKRAINE as an INDEPENDENT NATION is SERIOUSLY THREATENED.
