Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 18:53 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:23 UTC - 18:53 UTC)

1. AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Zelenskyy's Departure: Zelenskyy has LEFT THE WHITE HOUSE prematurely. (РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора, ТАСС) This CONFIRMS THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN of the meeting and REINFORCES THE SEVERITY of the dispute.

     • CNN, Sky News, and Fox News (via multiple Telegram channels) confirm the departure and the cancellation of the planned press conference.
     • Multiple sources (Fox News via Telegram channels, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Рыбарь, Военкор Котенок) report that the planned agreement on minerals/natural resources WAS NOT SIGNED.
     • Alex Parker Returns says that Fox News asked Zelenskyy to leave the USA as soon as possible.
     • Colonelcassad reports, based on US media, that Zelenskyy and his team were EXPELLED from the White House, and Trump refused further negotiations.

   • Trump's Statements (Continued):

     • Trump's social media post (reported by multiple sources including РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, STERNENKO): "Today we had a very meaningful meeting in the White House. We found out a lot of things that you could never find out without talking under such fire and pressure. Amazingly, what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for peace if America is involved because he feels that our involvement gives him a great advantage in negotiations. I don't want an advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in their hallowed Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace." This is a DIRECT AND PUBLIC CONDEMNATION of ZELENSKYY.
     • Trump stated that he has a good understanding with Putin and called the Russian leader a very intelligent politician and a strong personality. (ТАСС)

   • Ukrainian Reactions:

     • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА): Posted a video emphasizing its support for Zelensky.
     • STERNENKO: "A deal with the devil will never bring peace. It will only be defeat and humiliation. Respect to the president for holding his ground. We are not a nation that can be bent and sold." This INDICATES DEFIANCE and a REJECTION OF ANY FORCED SETTLEMENT.
     • РБК-Україна: Provides video of Zelenskyy leaving the White House.

   • Russian Perspective:

     • НгП раZVедка: Continues to MOCK ZELENSKYY, suggesting he was "penetrated" and "expelled." This reinforces the narrative of Ukrainian humiliation and weakness.
     • Colonelcassad: Emphasizes the COLLAPSE OF THE MEETING, the CANCELLATION OF THE MINERAL AGREEMENT, and the EXPULSION of Zelenskyy. It highlights the narrative that Russia is "reasonable" and "able to negotiate," while Zelenskyy is portrayed as "an obstacle to peace."
     • Два майора: Quotes Medvedev's statement: "A fierce thrashing in the Oval Office. Trump told the cocaine clown the truth for the first time: the Kyiv regime is playing with World War III. And the ungrateful pig received a strong slap from the owners of the pigsty. It's useful. But it's not enough - it is necessary to stop military assistance to the Nazi machine." This reinforces the EXTREMELY NEGATIVE PORTRAYAL of Zelenskyy and UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP.
     • Военкор Котенок claims Elon Musk stated "Zelensky has destroyed himself in the eyes of the American people."
     • Alex Parker Returns also claims Elon Musk stated: "Zelensky has destroyed himself in the eyes of the American people".

   • Assessment: The meeting's aftermath CONFIRMS A CATASTROPHIC COLLAPSE in US-Ukraine relations under Trump. Zelenskyy's PREMATURE DEPARTURE, the CANCELLATION OF THE PRESS CONFERENCE AND MINERAL AGREEMENT, and TRUMP'S SCATHING PUBLIC STATEMENTS indicate a COMPLETE RUPTURE. The situation has escalated from a disagreement to a TOTAL BREAKDOWN. The RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE is EXPLOITING THE SITUATION to the FULLEST EXTENT, portraying Ukraine as WEAK, ISOLATED, and FORCED TO ACCEPT RUSSIAN TERMS.

2. UPCOMING ZELENSKYY INTERVIEW ON FOX NEWS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Zelenskyy will give an exclusive interview on Fox News' "Special Report" with Bret Baier at 1:00 AM Kyiv time (6:00 PM Eastern Time). (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
   • Assessment: This interview is CRITICALLY IMPORTANT. It is Zelenskyy's FIRST OPPORTUNITY to RESPOND PUBLICLY to the events at the White House and PRESENT HIS PERSPECTIVE. The CHOICE OF FOX NEWS, a network generally considered SYMPATHETIC TO TRUMP, is SIGNIFICANT. It suggests an attempt to REACH A US AUDIENCE that may be SKEPTICAL OF FURTHER SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE. The interview's content will be SCRUTINIZED INTENSELY for CLUES ABOUT UKRAINE'S STRATEGY moving forward.

3. UKRAINIAN DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:35, 18:37 UTC) warns of a threat of attack drones in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and of "Shahed" drones in Mykolaiv Oblast, heading west.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Announces an air alarm in Zaporizhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of a RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK in SOUTHERN UKRAINE. The trajectory of the "Shahed" drones suggests a POTENTIAL THREAT TO WESTERN UKRAINE as well.

4. OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Alex Parker Returns: Claims Zelensky was asked to leave the US as soon as possible.
   • ASTRA: Reports that an American podcaster, Lex Fridman, is in Moscow to interview Putin.

Updated Situation Summary

• ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: COMPLETE AND CATASTROPHIC COLLAPSE, US-UKRAINE RELATIONS IN FREEFALL (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The meeting ended in TOTAL FAILURE, with ZELENSKYY EXPELLED from the White House and TRUMP issuing a BLISTERING PUBLIC CONDEMNATION. The PLANNED MINERAL AGREEMENT WAS NOT SIGNED. US SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE is now in SERIOUS JEOPARDY.
• UPCOMING ZELENSKYY INTERVIEW ON FOX NEWS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This is a CRITICAL MOMENT for ZELENSKYY to PRESENT HIS PERSPECTIVE and ATTEMPT TO SALVAGE the situation.
• RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT IN SOUTHERN AND POTENTIALLY WESTERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): IMMINENT THREAT of a RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK.
• MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): UNPRECEDENTED SCALE of UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS within RUSSIA and OCCUPIED CRIMEA.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA: UNCERTAIN, CONTRADICTORY REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Status remains UNCLEAR.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. DAMAGE CONTROL AND SECURE ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED. The situation has deteriorated further.
   • Prepare for the IMMEDIATE CESSATION OF US AID. Activate all contingency plans for SUSTAINING THE WAR EFFORT without US support.
   • URGENTLY dispatch high-level envoys to ALL KEY ALLIES (EU, UK, Canada, etc.) to SECURE UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT. Emphasize the existential threat and the POTENTIAL FOR REGIONAL INSTABILITY if Ukraine is forced to capitulate. Explore all options for INCREASING MILITARY AND FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE, including BYPASSING US CHANNELS if necessary.
   • Internally, prepare for a potential COLLAPSE OF PUBLIC MORALE. Develop a communication strategy to MAINTAIN UNITY and REINFORCE THE NARRATIVE OF RESISTANCE. Prepare for potential social unrest and POLITICAL INSTABILITY.
   • Prepare for POTENTIAL RUSSIAN EXPLOITATION. Anticipate increased Russian military pressure and PROPAGANDA EFFORTS aimed at CAPITALIZING ON THE CRISIS.

2. MONITOR AND PREPARE FOR ZELENSKYY'S FOX NEWS INTERVIEW (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather all available intelligence on FOX NEWS' EDITORIAL STANCE and BRET BAIER'S INTERVIEWING STYLE. Anticipate potential lines of questioning and PREPARE DETAILED RESPONSES.
   • Develop a clear and concise message for ZELENSKYY to deliver during the interview. This message should:
     • Acknowledge the disagreement with Trump but EMPHASIZE THE SHARED GOAL OF PEACE.
     • Reiterate Ukraine's commitment to defending its sovereignty and REJECTING ANY FORCED SETTLEMENT.
     • Appeal to the American public's sense of fairness and justice.
     • Highlight the strategic importance of Ukraine to EUROPEAN SECURITY and GLOBAL STABILITY.
     • Avoid direct criticism of Trump that could further alienate his supporters.
   • Prepare for potential follow-up interviews and PUBLIC STATEMENTS. Develop a coordinated communication strategy to MANAGE THE NARRATIVE after the interview.

3. RESPOND TO RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA and MYKOLAIV OBLASTS.
   • Prepare for potential attacks on WESTERN UKRAINE based on the trajectory of the "Shahed" drones.
   • Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
   • Prepare for potential casualties and damage.

4. CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND RESPOND TO MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the IMPACT OF THE DRONE ATTACKS on RUSSIAN TARGETS. Assess damage.
   • Exploit any successes.
   • Prepare for potential Russian retaliation.

5. CLARIFY SITUATION NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect. This is URGENT.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation is now CRITICAL. The COMPLETE BREAKDOWN of the ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING and the IMMINENT THREAT OF US SUPPORT WITHDRAWAL represent an EXISTENTIAL CRISIS for Ukraine. The UPCOMING FOX NEWS INTERVIEW is a MAKE-OR-BREAK MOMENT. IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE, SECURE ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT, and PREPARE FOR A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC SHIFT in the BALANCE OF POWER. The RISK OF A FORCED AND UNFAVORABLE SETTLEMENT is now EXTREMELY HIGH. The VERY SURVIVAL OF UKRAINE AS AN INDEPENDENT NATION may be at stake.