Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 18:22 UTC

Changes and New Information (17:54 UTC - 18:22 UTC)

1. AFTERMATH OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Trump's Post-Meeting Statements:

     • Trump stated, "We'll see" when asked if he and Zelenskyy could still negotiate after the heated exchange. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) This suggests a POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAIN, path forward for discussions.
     • Trump emphasized his desire for peace and stated, "I don't want an advantage, I want PEACE." (STERNENKO) This indicates a CONTINUED, BUT POTENTIALLY CONDITIONAL, commitment to a resolution.
     • Trump states that Zelenskyy "can come back when he is ready for peaceful resolution." (ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора)
     • Trump claimed Zelenskyy showed disrespect to the US in the Oval Office. (STERNENKO, Военкор Котенок, Два майора, ТАСС) This REINFORCES the narrative of a BREAKDOWN IN RELATIONS and INCREASED US PRESSURE.
     • Trump states that Zelenskyy is not ready for peace. (Военкор Котенок, Два майора, ТАСС, Colonelcassad).

   • Ukrainian Reactions:

     • РБК-Україна provides a detailed account of the argument, highlighting Vance's accusation of Zelenskyy playing on Biden's side during the US election campaign and Zelenskyy's defense of Ukraine's continued fight. This CONFIRMS THE SEVERITY of the disagreement and the MULTIPLE POINTS OF CONTENTION.
     • Alex Parker Returns posts an image of the Ukrainian ambassador to the US, Oksana Markarova and states "Soon to be home". Оперативний ЗСУ also showed a video of the ambassador during the leaders' dispute, demonstrating concern.
     • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posted a statement and a video emphasizing its support for Zelenskyy.

   • Russian Perspective:

     • НгП раZVедка claims Trump sees Zelenskyy as insignificant, accustomed to dealing with "real serious uncles" rather than the "crude diplomacy" of "European comic tsars." This REINFORCES THE NARRATIVE of US DISDAIN for Zelenskyy and UKRAINIAN WEAKNESS.
     • Военкор Котенок frames the meeting as a "public spat" and emphasizes Zelenskyy's initial aggressive stance against Russia and his subsequent silencing by Trump.
     • Рыбарь reports on the meeting, highlighting Trump's push for a deal and Zelenskyy's "boorish" behavior, portraying Ukraine as ungrateful and lacking options.
     • Colonelcassad says that fires are starting in Ukrainian Social Media.

   • Assessment: The meeting's aftermath CONFIRMS A MAJOR RIFT between ZELENSKYY AND TRUMP. Trump's "We'll see" comment offers a SLIVER OF HOPE for FUTURE ENGAGEMENT, but his subsequent statements about DISRESPECT and UNREADINESS FOR PEACE suggest a SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION in relations. The DETAILED ACCOUNT from РБК-Україна reveals the DEPTH OF THE DISAGREEMENT and the PRESSURE exerted on ZELENSKYY. The RUSSIAN SOURCES continue to EXPLOIT THE SITUATION, portraying UKRAINE as WEAK, UNGRATEFUL, and FORCED TO ACCEPT US TERMS.

2. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 53 Ukrainian drones over multiple regions: 43 over Bryansk Oblast, 5 over Crimea, 4 over Oryol Oblast, and 1 over Kaluga Oblast. (ТАСС, Два майора, AV БогомаZ)

• AV БогомаZ Says that there were no damages or injuries. * Assessment: This represents a MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE, targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS within RUSSIA and OCCUPIED CRIMEA. The SCALE OF THE ATTACK is UNPRECEDENTED. While the RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF INTERCEPTION need VERIFICATION, the sheer NUMBER OF DRONES involved suggests a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY to LAUNCH COORDINATED ATTACKS deep within RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY.

3. UKRAINIAN DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:12 UTC) warns of a threat of attack drones in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts.
   • Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of a RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK in SOUTHERN UKRAINE.

4. OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Fighterbomber says that the Zelensky-Trump meeting was only a show.
   • РБК-Україна reports that a Russian propagandist was removed from the Zelenskyy-Trump briefing.
   • Ukraine reached an agreement with the IMF on the seventh review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. (РБК-Україна)

Updated Situation Summary

• ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: COMPLETE BREAKDOWN, US PRESSURE INTENSIFIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The meeting has COMPLETELY COLLAPSED, with TRUMP effectively issuing an ULTIMATUM to ZELENSKYY: accept a deal or lose US support. Trump's post-meeting statements indicate a DEEP RIFT and a HIGH LEVEL OF DISPLEASURE with ZELENSKYY.
• MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): UNPRECEDENTED SCALE of UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS within RUSSIA and OCCUPIED CRIMEA.
• RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): IMMINENT THREAT of a RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK in KHERSON and MYKOLAIV OBLASTS.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA: UNCERTAIN, CONTRADICTORY REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Status remains UNCLEAR.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS CATASTROPHIC OUTCOMES OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect and are URGENTLY REINFORCED.
   • Prepare for the VERY REAL POSSIBILITY of IMMEDIATE SUSPENSION OF US AID. Activate all contingency plans for SUSTAINING THE WAR EFFORT with REDUCED RESOURCES.
   • IMMEDIATELY dispatch high-level envoys to ALL KEY ALLIES (EU, UK, Canada, etc.) to SECURE UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT and COUNTER US PRESSURE. Emphasize the existential threat posed by a forced settlement on unfavorable terms. Explore all options for INCREASING MILITARY AND FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE from these allies.
   • Internally, prepare for a potential SHIFT IN PUBLIC OPINION due to the BREAKDOWN with the US. Develop a communication strategy to MAINTAIN PUBLIC MORALE and UNITY in the face of ADVERSE DEVELOPMENTS.
   • Prepare for POTENTIAL RUSSIAN EXPLOITATION of the situation. Anticipate increased Russian military pressure and PROPAGANDA EFFORTS aimed at DEMORALIZING UKRAINIAN FORCES AND CIVILIANS.

2. ASSESS AND RESPOND TO MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the IMPACT OF THE DRONE ATTACKS on RUSSIAN TARGETS. Assess damage to MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE, LOGISTICS, and AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
   • Exploit any successes to DISRUPT RUSSIAN OPERATIONS and WEAKEN THEIR ABILITY TO WAGE WAR.
   • Prepare for potential Russian retaliation. Anticipate increased Russian missile and drone strikes on UKRAINIAN CITIES and INFRASTRUCTURE.

3. RESPOND TO RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in KHERSON and MYKOLAIV OBLASTS.
   • Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
   • Prepare for potential casualties and damage.

4. CLARIFY SITUATION NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • All previous recommendations remain in effect. This is URGENT.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation has deteriorated DRAMATICALLY. The BREAKDOWN of the ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING and the THREAT OF US SUPPORT WITHDRAWAL pose an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to UKRAINE. The MASSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION, but also carries the RISK OF RUSSIAN RETALIATION. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE, SECURE ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT, and PREPARE FOR POTENTIALLY UNFAVORABLE NEGOTIATIONS. The RISK OF A FORCED AND CATASTROPHIC SETTLEMENT is now EXTREMELY HIGH.