Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 17:53 UTC

Changes and New Information (17:23 UTC - 17:53 UTC)

1. INTENSIFIED ARGUMENTS DURING ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Trump reportedly shouted at Zelenskyy, stating, "We gave you $350 billion. You are now in a difficult situation. You don't have strong cards. We want to save your country and stop the war. You can't say 'I don't want to stop the war.' Without us, you don't have any strong cards." (Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, НгП раZVедка)

   • Trump explicitly stated that Ukraine might lose US support if Zelenskyy does not strive for a settlement. (ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns) "Either Zelensky will go for a deal, or the US washes its hands." (Colonelcassad)

   • Trump reportedly told Zelenskyy, "Your problems start right now." (Alex Parker Returns)

   • Zelenskyy attempted to respond, but Trump reportedly cut him off, stating, "No, you've already said too much!" (Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна)

   • Trump's and Vance's statements focused on Ukraine's lack of manpower and inability to continue the war. (Alex Parker Returns, НгП раZVедка).

   • Zelenskyy, seemingly retorted to Trump's comment about Ukraine lacking cards, stating, "I didn't come here to play cards." (STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

   • Zelenskyy also rebutted Trump's claim that the war would have ended in two weeks without US weapons, reminding him of Putin's "three-day" prediction. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

   • Multiple sources show videos and pictures of emotional reactions from Ukrainian officials, including the Ukrainian Ambassador to the US, Oksana Markarova. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна)

   • Sky News correspondent Mark Stone described the meeting as "tense." (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

   • НгП раZVедка posted a video and a message describing the interaction, with the title saying "Kevensky is publicly humiliated in Washington".

   • Assessment: This represents a COMPLETE BREAKDOWN in the meeting, with Trump adopting an EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE AND COERCIVE POSTURE. The threat to withdraw US support is EXPLICIT AND UNAMBIGUOUS. Zelenskyy's resistance, while understandable, appears to be INEFFECTIVE against Trump's pressure. The reported emotional reactions of Ukrainian officials CONFIRM THE SEVERITY OF THE SITUATION. This development significantly increases the likelihood of Ukraine being FORCED INTO UNFAVORABLE NEGOTIATIONS.

2. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (17:36 UTC) reports a Russian motorized rifle unit attack towards Burlatske, with progress of over 2.5 km west of Novoochevatovoe. Coordinates provided (0:37 47.88998, 36.77668).
   • Рыбарь (17:29) reports the liberation of Burlatske and Skudne as of this morning, with continued fighting for Pryvilne. This CONTRADICTS the earlier Сливочный каприз report, which suggested ongoing fighting NEAR Burlatske.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT CLARIFICATION. There is a DISCREPANCY between the two Russian sources. Рыбарь is generally considered MORE RELIABLE, but the Сливочный каприз report is MORE RECENT. The KEY QUESTION is whether the reported Russian advance towards Burlatske is ONGOING or has already CULMINATED in the capture of the settlement. IMMEDIATE RECONNAISSANCE is needed to resolve this.

3. REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON ENEMY PERSONNEL NEAR SEVERSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника reports a Russian strike on a pipe where Ukrainian forces had taken cover in Bilohorivka, on the Seversk front. They claim one Ukrainian killed, and six more awaiting the same fate.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

4. RUSSIAN ROCKET THREAT TO KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:45 UTC) issued a missile threat warning for Kharkiv Oblast.
   • Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of a RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKE. AIR DEFENSES should be at MAXIMUM ALERT.

5. OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Alex Parker Returns believes Trump came to the conclusion that there are no alternatives to carrying out the Special Military Operation.
• Colonelcassad posted a video and a picture related to the Zelensky-Trump meeting, stating that the Kremlin is probably smiling after watching it. * ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (17:35 UTC) announces a simplified procedure for soldiers who deserted before November 29, 2024, to return to service through the "Army+" system by March 1st, 2025. * Janus Putkonen: Posts a message related to Pfizer with negative conotation. * БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС: Posts a video of an attack on Russian Infantry. * ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦: Says that friends from "Розвідка Ноєм" describe the difficulties with logistics on the Sumy Border.
  • WarGonzo: Shows a special report from Abkhazia. * Воин DV: Show a video of soldiers of the South Donetsk region supporting civilians who stayed in their homes. * АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА: Shows a video of the location of the personnel of the enemy burnt to the ground. * НгП раZVедка: Posts messages saying that US Vice-President Vance said that there are almost no men left in Ukraine, that they have no one to fight with and they cannot even recruit people into the army. * Старше Эдды: Says that the AFU sends bad signals, and that instead of obtaining a durable peace, they are trying to secure a ceasefire and use it to prepare for a next phase of the war, and also expand the military training of children, starting from school. * МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники: Shows a video of a wounded Wagnerian not receiving a veteran certificate. * Kotsnews: Posts multiple messages related to the Zelensky-Trump meeting and regarding a deepfake related to a supposed criticism from a Russian Representative. * Олександр Вілкул: Delivers a briefing for the city of Kryvyi Rih. * РБК-Україна: Reports on multiple topics, including the Zelensky-Trump meeting, and states that negotiations will continue behind closed doors. * Shelling in Belgorod Oblast, 2 civilians wounded. (ASTRA)

Updated Situation Summary

• ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: CATASTROPHIC BREAKDOWN, EXTREME US PRESSURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The meeting has COMPLETELY DETERIORATED, with Trump issuing an ULTIMATUM to Zelenskyy: accept a deal or lose US support. This development DRAMATICALLY INCREASES the likelihood of Ukraine being FORCED INTO UNFAVORABLE NEGOTIATIONS.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA: UNCERTAIN, CONTRADICTORY REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): The status of Burlatske is UNCLEAR. IMMEDIATE RECONNAISSANCE is required to determine whether Russian forces are STILL ADVANCING TOWARDS the settlement or have already CAPTURED IT.
• RUSSIAN ROCKET THREAT TO KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): IMMINENT THREAT of a RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKE.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON ENEMY PERSONNEL NEAR SEVERSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS CATASTROPHIC OUTCOMES OF ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Immediately activate all diplomatic channels with OTHER ALLIES (EU, UK, Canada, etc.) to SECURE UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT and COUNTER US PRESSURE. Emphasize the existential threat posed by a forced settlement on unfavorable terms.
   • Prepare for the possibility of REDUCED OR SUSPENDED US MILITARY AND FINANCIAL AID. Develop contingency plans for SUSTAINING THE WAR EFFORT with REDUCED RESOURCES.
   • Explore all possible options for MITIGATING THE DAMAGE from the MINERALS AGREEMENT. Consult with legal experts to CHALLENGE THE AGREEMENT'S VALIDITY or LIMIT ITS SCOPE.
   • Prepare for potential internal unrest and DEVELOP A COMMUNICATION STRATEGY to MAINTAIN PUBLIC MORALE and UNITY in the face of ADVERSE DEVELOPMENTS.
   • Immediately assess Ukraine's negotiating position and IDENTIFY MINIMAL ACCEPTABLE TERMS for any potential ceasefire or settlement. Prepare a strong and unified negotiating team.
   • Explore options for leveraging any remaining points of influence with the US, such as INTELLIGENCE SHARING or COUNTER-TERRORISM COOPERATION.

2. CLARIFY SITUATION NEAR VELYKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available reconnaissance assets (drones, satellites, HUMINT) to DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION AND STATUS OF RUSSIAN FORCES in the area of BURLATSKE.
   • Assess whether the reported Russian advance is ONGOING or has CULMINATED in the CAPTURE OF THE SETTLEMENT.
   • If the advance is ongoing, prepare DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and REINFORCEMENTS to COUNTER FURTHER RUSSIAN PROGRESS.

3. RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ROCKET THREAT TO KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT in KHARKIV OBLAST.
   • Issue public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
   • Prepare for potential casualties and damage.

4. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE IN BILOHORIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM THE STRIKE and ASSESS THE DAMAGE.
   • Increase vigilance in this zone
   • If confirmed, take immediate steps to search and rescue the soldiers.
   • Increase air defenses in the region to PREVENT FURTHER ATTACKS.

5. VERIFY OTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK AND DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Deploy assets to confirm any other Russian advance.

6. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation has reached a CRITICAL JUNCTURE. The BREAKDOWN of the ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING and the THREAT OF US SUPPORT WITHDRAWAL pose an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to UKRAINE. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE, SECURE ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT, and PREPARE FOR POTENTIALLY UNFAVORABLE NEGOTIATIONS. The RISK OF A FORCED AND CATASTROPHIC SETTLEMENT is now EXTREMELY HIGH.