Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 17:23 UTC

Changes and New Information (16:53 UTC - 17:23 UTC)

1. ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUING COVERAGE, CONFIRMED):

   • Minerals Agreement Confirmed, Details Emerge (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

     • Trump (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ) confirms a minerals agreement will be signed TODAY. He claims it will be used for various purposes, including "artificial intelligence" and "weaponry and military equipment." This suggests a MAJOR SHIFT in US-Ukraine relations, with the US gaining access to CRITICAL RESOURCES in exchange for unspecified aid.
     • Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Zelensky believes that Ukraine has the biggest gas storage in Europe and can use it. He says that "this document gives us these opportunities" (referring to energy terminals), and that Ukraine "can support energy, and we'll do it."
     • Zelensky (РБК-Україна) acknowledges the minerals agreement is NOT SUFFICIENT for Ukraine's defense, stating "Russian soldiers will be afraid of us if we are strong. If we are not strong enough, if we are 'empty,' if our warehouses are empty, we will not be able to defend ourselves."
     • Assessment: This confirms the WORST-CASE SCENARIO regarding the minerals agreement. It appears to be a HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DEAL for Ukraine, essentially trading LONG-TERM RESOURCE CONTROL for SHORT-TERM and UNCERTAIN benefits. The mention of "artificial intelligence" and "weaponry" is ALARMING, suggesting Ukraine's resources will be used to BOLSTER US MILITARY CAPABILITIES rather than directly aiding Ukraine's defense. Zelensky's acknowledgment of the deal's insufficiency is a MAJOR CONCERN.

   • Negotiations and Ceasefire (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

     • Trump (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, Kotsnews) claims a ceasefire agreement is "inevitable" and that the sides are "quite close" to a settlement. He states, "Ukraine will no longer return to war" (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна). This suggests EXTREME PRESSURE on Ukraine to accept unfavorable terms.

     • Trump (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) says his contacts with Putin are "excellent" and that negotiators have started discussing the parameters of a future agreement on Ukraine.

     • Zelensky (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ) states a ceasefire "will not work" because "Russia will violate it." He emphasizes the need for US AIR DEFENSE systems. He also states (Оперативний ЗСУ) that "Putin must pay for the restoration of Ukraine."

     • Trump claims he is a mediator and not on either side of the conflict, and he calls on Europe to "activate."(РБК-Україна,ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

     • Alex Parker Returns reports that Trump stated that the US did not want to supply more weapons to Ukraine and wanted the conflict to end.

     • РБК-Україна,Оперативний ЗСУ reports Trump saying "We will have arms supplies to Ukraine. I hope we won't have to send a lot."

     • Alex Parker Returns reports Zelensky said that he would never accept just a ceasefire.

     • Alex Parker Returns says Trump shut up a CNN journalist who tried to provoke Trump into insulting Putin. Trump says CNN must focus on their survival.

     • Assessment: This confirms INTENSE NEGOTIATIONS are underway, likely with SIGNIFICANT US PRESSURE on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire. Trump's statements about being "close" to an agreement and claiming Ukraine "will not return to war" are DEEPLY CONCERNING and suggest a potential IMPOSITION OF UNFAVORABLE TERMS on Ukraine. Zelensky's resistance to a simple ceasefire and his emphasis on the need for air defense systems highlight the DISCONNECT between Ukrainian needs and the proposed solutions.

   • Internal Disagreements and Tension (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):

     • STERNENKO reports "Trump said that he wasn't subscribed to our wonderful monobase"

     • Alex Parker Returns reports Zelensky stated "If Trump brings peace to Ukraine, he will be on the level of George Washington."

     • Alex Parker Returns reports an argument between Zelensky and US Vice President Vance.

     • Zelensky (РБК-Україна) argued with Vance about the need for diplomacy. Zelensky said he already signed an agreement with Putin in the presence of Merkel and Macron.

     • Alex Parker Returns reports that Trump told Zelensky that he has "no right to dictate to us anything on the issue of ending the war. You are now in a very disadvantageous position."

     • Zelensky (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) showed Trump photos of Ukrainian soldiers after torture in Russian captivity.

     • Assessment: The reported disagreements and tensions underscore the DIFFICULT AND POTENTIALLY COERCIVE nature of the negotiations. Zelensky's resistance to a simple ceasefire and his attempts to highlight Ukrainian suffering and needs are CLEAR, but Trump's apparent focus on a quick settlement and his comments about Ukraine's "disadvantageous position" are OMINOUS.

2. RUSSIAN STRIKE ON ZHYTOMYR AIRFIELD (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a Russian strike on Ozerne airfield in Zhytomyr Oblast damaged a refueling complex, a diagnostics and maintenance station, a transport tractor, and destroyed two fuel trucks and an aircraft ladder.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it represents a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to Ukrainian air operations in the region, further DEGRADING LOGISTICAL CAPABILITIES.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELIKA NOVOSILKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз reports Russian forces advancing along the western bank of the Mokri Yaly River and reaching Skudne, with their forward position under fire. Coordinates provided (1:03 47.909064 36.795993).
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE in the area.

4. SHELLING IN BELGOROD OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA reports two civilians were wounded in a shelling attack on the village of Arkhangelskoye.
   • Assesment: Indicates continued cross-border fire.

5. NEW RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE US (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • ASTRA reports that the US issued an agreement for the appointment of Alexander Darchiev as the new Russian Ambassador to the country.
   • Assessment: This can affect the diplomatic relationships.

6. OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Fighterbomber: Complains about inaccuracies in air strikes.
• MoD Russia: Shows a video of a T-72B3M tank crew supposedly destroying Ukrainian position in the Kherson region.
  • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора: Both sources reposted the same message regarding the attack on a Ukrainian HQ.
  • ТАСС: Duma will consider a law on veteran status for fighters in the Kursk region.
  • Север.Реалии: Reports that there are concerns regarding the damage done by underwater cables being dragged by anchors.

Updated Situation Summary

• ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: MINERALS AGREEMENT CONFIRMED, HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This is the DOMINANT DEVELOPMENT, with POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES for Ukraine's long-term sovereignty and security. The agreement appears to trade CRITICAL RESOURCES for UNCERTAIN AND INSUFFICIENT military aid, primarily benefiting the US.
• INTENSE PRESSURE ON UKRAINE TO ACCEPT CEASEFIRE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Trump's statements and the reported negotiations indicate STRONG US PRESSURE on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire, potentially on UNFAVORABLE TERMS. Zelensky's resistance highlights the DISCONNECT between Ukrainian needs and the proposed solutions.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON ZHYTOMYR AIRFIELD (HIGH PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): If confirmed, this would SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADE Ukrainian air capabilities in the region.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELIKA NOVOSILKA: Confirms continued fighting.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING OUTCOMES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Immediately gather all available information on the minerals agreement, ESPECIALLY THE SPECIFIC TERMS AND CONDITIONS.
   • Assess the long-term implications for Ukraine's ECONOMIC SOVEREIGNTY and CONTROL OVER ITS RESOURCES.
   • Develop a legal and diplomatic strategy to CHALLENGE THE AGREEMENT and MITIGATE ITS NEGATIVE IMPACTS.
   • Communicate with Ukrainian allies to COORDINATE A RESPONSE and SECURE ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SUPPORT. Emphasize the need for CONTINUED AND UNCONDITIONAL MILITARY AND FINANCIAL AID.
   • Prepare for potential public backlash and DEVELOP A COMMUNICATION STRATEGY to explain the situation to the Ukrainian people and maintain morale.
   • Explore options for leveraging the agreement's focus on "artificial intelligence" and "weaponry" to BENEFIT UKRAINE'S DEFENSE, even if indirectly.

2. RESIST PRESSURE FOR UNFAVORABLE CEASEFIRE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain a firm stance against any ceasefire agreement that does NOT INCLUDE GUARANTEES OF UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.
   • Emphasize the need for continued military aid to STRENGTHEN UKRAINE'S NEGOTIATING POSITION.
   • Continue to highlight Russian violations of past agreements and the UNRELIABILITY OF RUSSIAN PROMISES.
   • Communicate with international partners to REINFORCE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE'S POSITION.

3. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON ZHYTOMYR AIRFIELD (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM THE STRIKE and ASSESS THE DAMAGE.
   • If confirmed, take immediate steps to MITIGATE THE IMPACT ON AIR OPERATIONS.
   • Increase air defenses in the region to PREVENT FURTHER ATTACKS.

4. VERIFY REPORTED ADVANCE NEAR VELIKA NOVOSILKA, POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Gather intelligence and analyze.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation has taken a DRAMATICALLY NEGATIVE TURN with the confirmation of the minerals agreement and the INTENSE PRESSURE on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE, PROTECT UKRAINIAN INTERESTS, and MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. The RISK OF A FORCED AND UNFAVORABLE SETTLEMENT is now EXTREMELY HIGH.