Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 12:20 UTC
Changes and New Information (11:53 UTC - 12:20 UTC)
FIERCE FIGHTING IN DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Военкор Котенок (11:55 UTC) reports fierce counter-battles near Novosergievka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Uspenovka. Claims fighting for the center of Uspenovka. Also reports Russian advances towards Kotlyarovka and Preobrazhenka, and fierce battles near Preobrazhenka. Further south, claims Russian advances towards Troitskoye and Bogdanovka, and fighting for positions near the Stavkovaya and Solenenkaya ravines between Novoandreevka and Andreevka.
Assessment: These reports INDICATE INTENSE FIGHTING in the DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTION, with RUSSIAN FORCES ATTEMPTING ADVANCES in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. The CLAIM OF FIGHTING FOR THE CENTER OF USPENOVKA suggests a POSSIBLE RUSSIAN GAIN, but this REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FIERCE FIGHTING indicate a HIGHLY CONTESTED AREA.
UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS AIRSTRIKES IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:05) reports that tactical aviation have used guided bombs against the Sumy Oblast.
* Assessment: Confirms the continuous Russian use of the bombs.
Оперативний ЗСУ (12:05 UTC) reports that the 66th Brigade destroyed a Russian BMP-3 during a failed Russian mechanized assault in the Lyman direction. Includes video.
Assessment: The video CONFIRMS THE DESTRUCTION OF A RUSSIAN BMP-3, likely by UKRAINIAN FORCES. This DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN ANTI-ARMOR CAPABILITY and SUCCESSFULLY REPULSED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the LYMAN DIRECTION.
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM CAPTURE OF NOVENKOE, ADVANCE ON BASOVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Alex Parker Returns (12:15 UTC) and Два майора (12:14) claim that Russian forces have captured Novenkoe in Sumy Oblast and are advancing on Basovka. Alex Parker Returns claims Ukrainian forces had no fortifications or border garrisons in the area. Два майора reports that Ukrainian forces are moving reinforcements to the area and claims this offensive is a threat to Zelensky's propaganda.
Assessment: These reports STRONGLY SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE into SUMY OBLAST. The CLAIM OF NO UKRAINIAN FORTIFICATIONS is HIGHLY CONCERNING if true, and requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. The REPORTS OF FIGHTING IN NOVENKOE and the CLAIM OF A RUSSIAN ADVANCE ON BASOVKA indicate a RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SITUATION. URGENT VERIFICATION is REQUIRED.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (12:20 UTC) reports that Ukrainian drone pilots are "brutally denazifying" Russian troops near Terny, Donetsk Oblast. Includes video.
Assessment: The video, taken by a drone, CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES on RUSSIAN TROOPS near TERNY. This DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITY and TARGETING OF RUSSIAN PERSONNEL.
Updated Situation Summary
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM CAPTURE OF NOVENKOE, ADVANCE ON BASOVKA IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, HIGH CONFIDENCE):MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. REPORTS STRONGLY SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE. CLAIMS OF NO UKRAINIAN FORTIFICATIONS ARE HIGHLY CONCERNING AND REQUIRE IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.
FIERCE FIGHTING IN DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):RUSSIAN FORCES ATTEMPTING ADVANCES in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. FIGHTING FOR THE CENTER OF USPENOVKA suggests a POSSIBLE RUSSIAN GAIN (requires verification).
UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY RUSSIAN BMP-3 IN LYMAN DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN ANTI-ARMOR CAPABILITY and SUCCESSFUL REPULSE OF RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN TROOPS NEAR TERNY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITY and TARGETING OF RUSSIAN PERSONNEL.
UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS AIRSTRIKES IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED).
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence) to CONFIRM THE EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE in SUMY OBLAST, specifically the CLAIMED CAPTURE OF NOVENKOE and the ADVANCE ON BASOVKA.
Immediately investigate the CLAIM OF NO UKRAINIAN FORTIFICATIONS in the area. If true, this represents a MAJOR INTELLIGENCE FAILURE and CRITICAL VULNERABILITY.
Assess the impact on the OVERALL MILITARY SITUATION, including POTENTIAL THREATS to OTHER REGIONS.
Prepare for potential further Russian incursions and ESCALATION.
REINFORCE DEFENSES IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Immediately deploy reinforcements to SUMY OBLAST to COUNTER THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
Establish defensive positions along POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE ROUTES.
Prioritize the protection of key infrastructure and POPULATION CENTERS.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT AND DEFENSIVE POSTURE ACROSS ALL FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue to reinforce defensive positions and PREPARE FOR FURTHER RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES, particularly in the DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTION.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation has FURTHER DETERIORATED with the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE into SUMY OBLAST. The CLAIMED CAPTURE OF NOVENKOE and the ADVANCE ON BASOVKA, coupled with the REPORT OF NO UKRAINIAN FORTIFICATIONS, represent a MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE THREAT. URGENT VERIFICATION, REINFORCEMENT OF DEFENSES, AND DECISIVE ACTION are ESSENTIAL. The CONTINUED FIGHTING in the DNIPROPETROVSK DIRECTION and the ONGOING DRONE WARFARE across MULTIPLE FRONTS further INCREASE THE DANGER.
