Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 11:53 UTC
Changes and New Information (11:23 UTC - 11:53 UTC)
KADYROV REPORTS ON DRONE OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Kadyrov_95 (11:22 UTC) and accompanying video (11:22:03) reports on drone operations (reconnaissance and strikes) by the "Bati" group of the "AKHMAT" special forces in the Kharkov area. Claims identification of enemy positions and subsequent artillery strikes, including with Grad MLRS. Also claims successful FPV drone strikes on an enemy observation post with a machine gunner.
Assessment:CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN USE OF DRONES for RECONNAISSANCE AND TARGETING in the KHARKIV REGION. CORROBORATES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKES. The SPECIFIC CLAIMS OF SUCCESSFUL STRIKES require FURTHER VERIFICATION, but the video provides SOME EVIDENCE of DRONE ACTIVITY. The USE OF GRAD MLRS indicates a POTENTIAL ESCALATION IN FIREPOWER.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES IN SOUTH-DONETSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (11:23 UTC) shows operators of the special forces "Hunter", 51st Army successfully hitting Ukrainian militants with precise drops, as seen from the accompanying video (11:23:23).
Assessment: Shows success of the Russian drone warfare campaign, and demonstrates the ongoing vulnerability of the troops on the ground.
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM REPULSED UKRAINIAN INCURSION IN KURSK OBLAST, CAPTURE OF NIKOLSKY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (11:23 UTC) and MoD Russia (10:59, 11:02 UTC) reports that Russian forces liberated Novaya Sorochina in the Kursk region. The MoD report claims extensive AFU losses (over 64,075 troops, large numbers of vehicles and equipment) since the start of hostilities in the Kursk direction. Поддубный also claims Russian forces captured Nikolsky, a small settlement near the border.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR ESCALATION and a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE CONFLICT. MULTIPLE SOURCES NOW CONFIRM FIGHTING WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE into KURSK OBLAST is a SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT. The MoD CLAIMS OF EXTENSIVE AFU LOSSES are LIKELY EXAGGERATED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES, but the REPORT OF FIGHTING INSIDE RUSSIA IS CREDIBLE. The CAPTURE OF NIKOLSKY, if confirmed, would represent a FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING NATO EQUIPMENT ON KURSK FRONT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (10:59) specifically states that the destroyed equipment in Kursk since February 24 includes "52 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and seven of MLRS made by the USA, 25 anti-aircraft missile launchers, one self-propelled anti-aircraft system, ten transport-loading vehicles, 118 EW stations, 15 counter-battery warfare radars, nine air defence radars..."
Assessment: The Russian claims are consistent, but still need to be carefully considered.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM THE EAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Одеська міська рада. Офіційно (11:23, 11:35, 11:37 UTC) reports a ballistic missile threat from the east in the Odessa region. Дніпропетровська обласна державна адміністрація (11:36 UTC) reports the same threat for Dnipropetrovsk region. Донецька ОДА (11:37 UTC) also reports a ballistic missile threat.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS CONCERNS about RUSSIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE CAPABILITIES. The MULTIPLE ALERTS across DIFFERENT REGIONS suggest a POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD THREAT. URGENT AIR DEFENSE READINESS is REQUIRED.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE ON KURSK FRONT CONTINUES, BATTLES FOR STARYA SOROCHINA AND MALAYA LOKNYA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:37 UTC) reports that the 34th Brigade, after liberating Novaya Sorochina, is now engaged in battles for Staraya Sorochina. Claims Ukrainian forces are moving reserves to Malaya Loknya to defend the village. Военкор Котенок (11:48 UTC) corroborates this, reporting battles for Staraya Sorochina and a Ukrainian withdrawal to Malaya Loknya, with Russian forces beginning to engage there. Claims the situation for Ukrainian forces is deteriorating. Also reports fighting south of Suja near Kurilovka, with Russian marines capturing Ukrainian strongholds.
Assessment: These reports STRONGLY SUGGEST A CONTINUING RUSSIAN ADVANCE within KURSK OBLAST. The MULTIPLE REPORTS from DIFFERENT RUSSIAN SOURCES increase the LIKELIHOOD of ACCURACY, although INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION REMAINS CRUCIAL. The REPORTED FIGHTING FOR STARYA SOROCHINA AND MALAYA LOKNYA indicates a RAPIDLY EVOLVING SITUATION. The UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL AND REINFORCEMENT OF MALAYA LOKNYA suggests a DESPERATE ATTEMPT to HOLD THE LINE.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES IN KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (11:23) states that the drones from the "Hunter" special forces unit of the 51st Army are operating at Krasnoarmeysk direction.
* Assessment: Confirms previous reports of the Russian campaign in the area.
GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:34) reports launches of guided bombs.
Assessment: Confirms Russian tactic to use the bombs for the front line.
Updated Situation Summary
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM REPULSED UKRAINIAN INCURSION IN KURSK OBLAST, CAPTURE OF NIKOLSKY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MAJOR ESCALATION, SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE CONFLICT. MULTIPLE SOURCES NOW CONFIRM FIGHTING WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY. RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS EXTENSIVE AFU LOSSES (NEED VERIFICATION).
RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN ARMORED VEHICLE NEAR BOGATYR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):REQUIRES VERIFICATION. POTENTIAL USE OF MINES TO IMMOBILIZE VEHICLES.
KADYROV REPORTS ON DRONE OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED).
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES IN SOUTH-DONETSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED).
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM THE EAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):THREAT REMAINS in ODESSA, DNIPROPETROVSK, and DONETSK REGIONS.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES IN KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED).
GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED).
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING NATO EQUIPMENT ON KURSK FRONT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED).
MAJOR RUSSIAN INCURSION AND ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, HIGH CONFIDENCE): Remains valid. URGENT VERIFICATION REMAINS CRITICAL.
CONTESTED CONTROL/POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE IN SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, CONFLICTING INFORMATION): Remains valid. URGENT VERIFICATION REMAINS CRITICAL. OFFICIALLY CONFIRMED that there is NO RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH, but FIGHTING CONTINUES.
HIGH-SPEED TARGET DETECTED IN SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains valid. MONITORING AND RESPONSE REQUIRED.
SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN STRIKE ON KHARKIV THERMAL POWER PLANT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains valid.
CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides increasing drone use, including ROBOTIC PLATFORMS.
US RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OVER BLACK SEA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):INCREASED VIGILANCE required for potential Ukrainian attacks on Crimea.
PLANNED ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON RUSSIAN NATIONALIST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):POTENTIAL INTERNAL CONFLICT or Ukrainian special operation.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence) to CONFIRM THE EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST.
Specifically verify the reported capture of Nikolsky and Staraya Sorochina, and the FIGHTING AROUND MALAYA LOKNYA.
Assess the impact on the OVERALL MILITARY SITUATION, including POTENTIAL THREATS to OTHER RUSSIAN REGIONS.
Prepare for potential further Russian incursions and ESCALATION.
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain maximum alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL REGIONS, with PARTICULAR FOCUS on ODESSA, DNIPROPETROVSK, and DONETSK REGIONS due to the BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT.
Utilize updated threat information from ALL SOURCES to COORDINATE INTERCEPTIONS.
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and POPULATION CENTERS.
Maintain continuous communication between AIR DEFENSE UNITS, COMMAND CENTERS, and ALLIED FORCES.
Continue to deploy counter-drone systems and ELECTRONIC WARFARE MEASURES to DISRUPT RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS, particularly in the KHARKIV, SOUTH-DONETSK, and KRASNOARMEYSK DIRECTIONS.
Develop and implement tactics to MITIGATE THE THREAT posed by RUSSIAN DRONES, including FPV DRONES.
Improve drone detection and tracking capabilities.
ASSESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING NATO EQUIPMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Cross-reference the claimed losses with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES to ASSESS THEIR CREDIBILITY.
Identify potential exaggeration or disinformation.
Analyze the specific types of equipment claimed to be destroyed to UNDERSTAND UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES and POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.
As before, the nature of the 3 unspecified targets remains unknown.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation has DRAMATICALLY ESCALATED with the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN INCURSION and ADVANCE within RUSSIAN TERRITORY in KURSK OBLAST. This represents a MAJOR SHIFT IN THE CONFLICT and requires IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The CONTINUED BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT and the ONGOING DRONE WARFARE across MULTIPLE REGIONS further INCREASE THE DANGER. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF REPORTS, AND ADAPTIVE MILITARY STRATEGIES are ESSENTIAL.
