Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 09:53 UTC
Changes and New Information (09:23 UTC - 09:53 UTC)
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE CLAIMS CAPTURE OF MULTIPLE SETTLEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (09:24 UTC, 09:24 UTC, 09:26 UTC) reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of "Новая Сорочина" (Novaya Sorochina) in the Kursk region. They also claim four settlements were liberated in the Kursk region during the past week, and a total of eight settlements overall.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:27 UTC) and Два майора (09:35 UTC) reiterate the claim of capturing Novaya Sorochina. Два майора further lists Pogrebki, Maryevka, and Orlovka as previously liberated, and claims successes in the eastern part of Lebedevka.
«Зона СВО» (09:44 UTC) provides a situation update on the Kursk direction, claiming ongoing Russian advances, pressure on Ukrainian forces around Sudzha, and fighting in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. It asserts Ukrainian forces are struggling due to insufficient manpower and are concentrating on key areas near the Sudzha-Sumy road and south of Sudzha.
Colonelcassad (09:41 UTC) repeats the claim about Novaya Sorochina.
Assessment: These reports, especially the official statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, STRONGLY SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN INCURSION AND ADVANCE INTO THE KURSK REGION. The repeated claims of capturing settlements and the detailed description of the tactical situation INCREASE CONFIDENCE in these reports, though INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION REMAINS ESSENTIAL. This represents a MAJOR EXPANSION OF THE CONFLICT ZONE and a SERIOUS CHALLENGE for Ukrainian defenses. It DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS earlier Ukrainian claims of a "grey zone" in Sumy (Noven'ke), adding to the INFORMATION WARFARE and UNCERTAINTY surrounding the northern front.
ТАСС (09:27 UTC) reports a summary of the Russian MoD briefing:
Ukrainian MiG-29 shot down.
9 strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs on Ukrainian energy facilities supporting the military-industrial complex.
Over 1,340 Ukrainian military personnel and a tank lost in the "West" group of forces' area.
Over 1,210 Ukrainian military personnel lost in the "South" group of forces' area.
Over 2,340 Ukrainian military personnel and 5 tanks (including 3 Leopards) lost in the "Center" group of forces' area.
Assessment: This is standard reporting from the Russian MoD, likely INFLATED CASUALTY FIGURES. The claim of targeting energy infrastructure SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of strikes, particularly in Kharkiv. The reported Ukrainian losses REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION, but highlight the INTENSITY OF FIGHTING across multiple fronts.
UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS HIGH-SPEED TARGET (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:26 UTC) reports a high-speed target in the Sumy region, heading northwest.
Assessment: This SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL RUSSIAN MISSILE OR DRONE ATTACK in progress. The location in Sumy CORROBORATES the reports of intense fighting and contested control in the area. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE MONITORING AND AIR DEFENSE RESPONSE.
OTHER REPORTS:
Multiple reports from sources like Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report on Kongsberg planning to create a company in Ukraine, indicating a plan to start domestic manufacturing of NASAMS.
MoD Russia (09:33 UTC) publishes video of Grad MLRS operating in South Donetsk
Воин DV (09:30 UTC) shows archived footage of a drone strike on a vehicle in the South Donetsk direction
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (09:31 UTC) reports Ukrainian counterattacks in the Dzerzhinsk direction
Updated Situation Summary
MAJOR RUSSIAN INCURSION AND ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, HIGH CONFIDENCE): Official Russian MoD claims and multiple reports indicate a significant Russian offensive and capture of several settlements, representing a major expansion of the conflict zone. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
CONTESTED CONTROL/POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE IN SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, CONFLICTING INFORMATION): Ukrainian reports of a "grey zone" are directly contradicted by Russian claims of advances. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
HIGH-SPEED TARGET DETECTED IN SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Suggests potential imminent missile/drone attack. IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED.
CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING IN DONETSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces report capturing Nikolsky and advancing in other areas. Ukrainian forces report continued fighting and drone strikes.
SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN STRIKE ON KHARKIV THERMAL POWER PLANT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed strike using multiple drones, likely causing significant power disruptions.
CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides continue to use drones for attacks and reconnaissance. Ukrainian air defenses continue to intercept some Russian drones.
PLANS FOR MASS PRODUCTION OF MISSILES (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCES).
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
URGENTLY VERIFY SITUATION IN KURSK AND SUMY REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, signal intelligence, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE conflicting claims about Russian advances and Ukrainian counter-offensives.
Prioritize verifying the status of MALAYA LOKNYA, SUDZHA, NOVEN'KE, and the reported Ukrainian logistics hub in OLESHNYA.
Focus on confirming Russian claims of capturing NOVOYA SOROCHINA and other settlements in the Kursk region.
Assess the scale of any confirmed Russian presence and their IMMEDIATE OBJECTIVES.
Determine the status of Ukrainian defensive lines in the affected areas.
Prepare for potential further Russian advances in the region.
RESPOND TO HIGH-SPEED TARGET IN SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Activate air defense systems in the SUMY REGION and OTHER POTENTIALLY TARGETED AREAS.
Track the target and ATTEMPT INTERCEPTION if it enters Ukrainian airspace.
Issue alerts to civilian populations if necessary.
RESPOND TO KHARKIV POWER PLANT ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Assess damage to the thermal power plant and INITIATE REPAIR EFFORTS if possible.
Implement power rationing and PRIORITIZE CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE to MITIGATE THE IMPACT of the power outage.
Increase air defense readiness in Kharkiv and other cities to COUNTER POTENTIAL FUTURE DRONE ATTACKS.
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED AIR DEFENSE ALERT (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue to deploy and maintain air defense systems across Ukraine, with a PARTICULAR FOCUS on AREAS EXPERIENCING INCREASED DRONE ACTIVITY (Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Poltava).
Improve drone detection and tracking capabilities.
Verify reports of Russian forces crossing the border in the Sumy region.
Assess the scale and objective of any potential incursion.
MONITOR RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue to track Russian troop movements and FORTIFY DEFENSIVE POSITIONS where possible.
Prepare for potential further Russian advances in the region.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE INTO THE KURSK REGION is a MAJOR ESCALATION that SIGNIFICANTLY WIDENS THE CONFLICT ZONE. The CONFLICTING CLAIMS about the SUMY REGION require IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The POTENTIAL IMMINENT THREAT of a HIGH-SPEED TARGET in SUMY requires IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE RESPONSE. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND ADAPTIVE MILITARY AND HUMANITARIAN RESPONSES remain ESSENTIAL.
