Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 09:23 UTC
Changes and New Information (08:53 UTC - 09:23 UTC)
RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Два майора (09:07 UTC) claims Russian forces have pushed through Ukrainian defenses in the Kursk region, engaging in battles in Malaya Loknya and forcing a Ukrainian retreat towards Sudzha. Claims Russian artillery and FPV drones control the main supply road, forcing Ukrainians to use field roads. Claims a new Ukrainian logistics center is in the village of Oleshnya. Provides a map.
Alex Parker Returns (09:20 UTC) provides a map of the territory.
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (09:21 UTC) reports Russian air defense activity over the Belgorod region, with around ten explosions heard near the border.
Assessment: This STRONGLY SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN INCURSION into the KURSK REGION, specifically targeting the area around MALAYA LOKNYA and pushing towards SUDZHA. The claims of controlling key supply routes and establishing a new Ukrainian logistics hub REQUIRE VERIFICATION, but if true, represent a MAJOR SHIFT in the NORTHERN FRONT. The reported air defense activity SUPPORTS THE NARRATIVE of INTENSE FIGHTING in the area.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN INCURSION INTO SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (09:21 UTC) reports, citing DeepState, that the village of Noven'ke in the Sumy region is a "grey zone." Claims Russian forces crossed the border in the Sumy region, but there are no official comments. Provides a map.
Assessment: This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS RUSSIAN CLAIMS of a RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the area. It suggests UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE ACTIONS or AT LEAST CONTESTED CONTROL in the SUMY REGION. The lack of official comments highlights the UNCERTAINTY and INFORMATION WARFARE surrounding the situation. URGENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL.
CONTINUED FIGHTING IN DONETSK REGION, REPORTED CAPTURE OF NIKOLSKY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (09:22 UTC) reports, with maps, that Nikolsky has been "liberated," with advancements near Nadezhdinka and Skhidne-Pryvilne. Claims a "correction" of the control line in Pyatykhatky in Russia's favor.
Assessment: Continues the trend of fighting in the region, with a strong probability of Russian advances.
KHARKIV THERMAL POWER PLANT STRUCK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Военкор Котенок (09:11 UTC) reports, with video, a nighttime strike on a thermal power plant in Kharkiv. Claims the object was hit by a "Geran" drone. Claims at least 12 drones were involved in attacks on targets in the city, successfully overcoming Ukrainian air defenses. Provides video.
Assessment:CONFIRMS A SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN STRIKE on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE in KHARKIV. The use of multiple drones suggests a COORDINATED ATTACK designed to OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES. This will likely have a SIGNIFICANT IMPACT on POWER SUPPLY in the city.
UKRAINIAN DRONE SHOT DOWN (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:15 UTC) provides video of a "Shahed" drone being shot down by the Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigade in the southern direction.
Оперативний ЗСУ (09:17 UTC) provides the same video.
Assessment:CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY and SUCCESSFUL INTERCEPTION of a RUSSIAN DRONE.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT POGREBKI (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:17 UTC) and MoD Russia (08:45 UTC) report, with video, on the assault on the settlement of Pogrebki, Kursk region. Claims Russian forces liberated the settlement and have raised a flag.
Assessment: Confirms earlier reporting.
PLANS FOR MASS PRODUCTION OF MISSILES (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (09:17) reports that Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, a NASAMS manufacturer, plans to create a company in Ukraine to manufacture missiles for NASAMS.
Assessment: If realized, this could drastically improve Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
Рыбарь (09:10) reports, with video, that the FSB prevented a terrorist attack against Metropolitan Tikhon in Moscow.
Kotsnews (08:52) reports, with video, on threats against Metropolitan Tikhon.
Assessment: Reinforces the narrative of ongoing investigations.
Updated Situation Summary
MAJOR RUSSIAN INCURSION IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, INCREASING CONFIDENCE): Multiple Russian sources claim significant advances, control of key supply routes, and Ukrainian retreat. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
CONTESTED CONTROL/POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE IN SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Ukrainian sources claim the area around Noven'ke is a "grey zone," directly contradicting Russian claims. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING IN DONETSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces report capturing Nikolsky and advancing in other areas.
SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN STRIKE ON KHARKIV THERMAL POWER PLANT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed strike using multiple drones, likely causing significant power disruptions.
CONTINUED DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides continue to use drones for attacks and reconnaissance. Ukrainian air defenses continue to intercept some Russian drones.
PLANS FOR MASS PRODUCTION OF MISSILES (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCES).
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
URGENTLY VERIFY SITUATION IN KURSK AND SUMY REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE conflicting claims about Russian advances and Ukrainian counter-offensives.
Utilize satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, signal intelligence, and human intelligence to ASSESS TROOP MOVEMENTS, CONTROL OF TERRITORY, AND SUPPLY ROUTE STATUS.
Prioritize verifying the status of MALAYA LOKNYA, SUDZHA, NOVEN'KE, and the reported Ukrainian logistics hub in OLESHNYA.
RESPOND TO KHARKIV POWER PLANT ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Assess damage to the thermal power plant and INITIATE REPAIR EFFORTS if possible.
Implement power rationing and PRIORITIZE CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE to MITIGATE THE IMPACT of the power outage.
Increase air defense readiness in Kharkiv and other cities to COUNTER POTENTIAL FUTURE DRONE ATTACKS.
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED AIR DEFENSE ALERT (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue to deploy and maintain air defense systems across Ukraine, with a PARTICULAR FOCUS on AREAS EXPERIENCING INCREASED DRONE ACTIVITY (Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Poltava).
Improve drone detection and tracking capabilities.
Verify reports of Russian forces crossing the border in the Sumy region.
Assess the scale and objective of any potential incursion.
MONITOR RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue to track Russian troop movements and FORTIFY DEFENSIVE POSITIONS where possible.
Prepare for potential further Russian advances in the region.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONFLICTING CLAIMS about the situation in the KURSK AND SUMY REGIONS require IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN STRIKE on the KHARKIV POWER PLANT highlights the CONTINUED THREAT to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND ADAPTIVE MILITARY AND HUMANITARIAN RESPONSES remain ESSENTIAL.
