Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 26, 2025, 11:11 UTC

Changes and New Information (10:42 UTC - 11:11 UTC)

1. CONFIRMATION OF KOTLYNE RECAPTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:43 UTC) REINFORCES previous reports of Ukrainian forces retaking Kotlyne. It REITERATES the strategic importance of the village for controlling the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. It claims the following losses for Russian forces: 1 BTR, 12 vehicles, over 275 killed, and 200 wounded.
   • Assessment: This is FURTHER CONFIRMATION from ANOTHER UKRAINIAN SOURCE regarding the SUCCESSFUL COUNTEROFFENSIVE in KOTLYNE. The reported losses are SIGNIFICANT and, if verified, represent a MAJOR SETBACK for Russian forces in the area.

2. NEW RUSSIAN ENGINE DEVELOPMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (10:45) reports that Russia's Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant has successfully developed a new engine for the MALKA and MSTA-S howitzers, S-300, and T-72B tanks.
   • Assessment: This is SIGNIFICANT because it IMPLIES a way around SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS and SANCTIONS placed on the Russian military. This IMPLIES a way for the Russian military to CONTINUE TO FIELD these weapon systems.

3. RUSSIAN MoD REPORT ON LOGISTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (10:46 UTC) reports that Russian security sources claim the liberation of Orlovka and Pogrebki will SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE LOGISTICS AND SUPPLIES to Ukrainian soldiers in Sudzha.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the RUSSIAN NARRATIVE of CONTROL over ORLOVKA AND POGREBKI. This IMPLIES that the attacks occurred in KURSK OBLAST.

4. UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (10:46 UTC) reports that the Ukrainian 5th Separate Assault Brigade DESTROYED 5 Russian reconnaissance drones (2 Supercam and 3 Zala) in the EASTERN DIRECTION.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the UKRAINIAN ABILITY to CONDUCT drone warfare, and DISRUPT Russian operations.

5. TURKISH MEDIATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): TASS (10:48) reports Turkey is ready to negotiate a peace agreement.

• Assessment: This may suggest a renewed interest in mediating a solution to the conflict.

6. UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (10:49) posted a series of propaganda images of Ukrainian tanks, suggesting they were training.
   • Assessment: This is STANDARD PROPAGANDA.

7. UKRAINIAN COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Офіс Генерального прокурора (11:00) reports that a spy in Dnipropetrovsk who was performing sabotage and relaying coordinates to Russia was arrested.
   • Assessment: This is SIGNIFICANT because it IMPLIES INTERNAL SABOTAGE OPERATIONS being conducted by PRO-RUSSIAN FORCES.

8. UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:01 UTC) reports that in the Kharkiv region, KAMIKAZE DRONES DESTROYED a BTR-82A, TEN troops, and a UAV CONTROL CENTER.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the UKRAINIAN ABILITY to CONDUCT drone warfare, and DISRUPT Russian operations.

9. UKRAINIAN FUNDRAISING (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): ✙DeepState✙ (11:02) reports that there is a donation drive to acquire FPV drones.

   • Assessment: This is STANDARD.

10. RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (11:02 UTC) reports that FPV DRONES AND AIRSTRIKES destroyed a BBM VEHICLE.
    • Assessment: This SUGGESTS Russian drone operation capabilities.

Updated Situation Summary

• KOTLYNE RECAPTURE CONFIRMED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian forces have SECURED CONTROL of Kotlyne, preventing a POTENTIAL RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH towards the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Reported Russian losses are SIGNIFICANT.
• RUSSIAN MoD REPORT ON LOGISTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): IMPLIES that the attacks occurred in KURSK OBLAST.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR AIR AND BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain highest alert status for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE.
   • Issue immediate and continuous warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER.
   • Prioritize interception of BALLISTIC MISSILES due to their SHORT FLIGHT TIME.

2. CONSOLIDATE GAINS IN KOTLYNE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Reinforce Ukrainian positions in KOTLYNE to PREVENT RUSSIAN FORCES FROM REGAINING CONTROL.
   • Deploy additional anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS to counter potential Russian counterattacks.

3. VERIFY REPORTED AIRSTRIKES IN KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported airstrikes.
   • Assess the damage to INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POTENTIAL MILITARY TARGETS.

4. MONITOR RUSSIAN-US MEETING IN ISTANBUL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on the AGENDA AND OUTCOMES of the meeting.
   • Assess whether any discussions touch upon the conflict in Ukraine, even indirectly.

5. ASSESS POTENTIAL ZELENSKY VISIT TO WASHINGTON (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on the PURPOSE AND INTENDED OUTCOME of a potential visit by President Zelensky to Washington.
   • Contact the US government

6. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. The REPORTED ADVANCES in SEVERSK AND KRAMATORSK DIRECTIONS, if confirmed, FURTHER WORSEN THE SITUATION. RAPID, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required to CONTAIN THE RUSSIAN ADVANCES, PROTECT KEY ASSETS, and MAINTAIN UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.