Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 26, 2025, 10:41 UTC

Changes and New Information (09:41 UTC - 10:41 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS LIBERATION OF ORLOVKA AND POGREBKI IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (10:21 UTC, 10:25 UTC, 10:48 UTC) and Colonelcassad (10:25 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:35 UTC), НгП раZVедка (10:38) report that Russian forces have liberated Orlovka and Pogrebki in the Kursk region. This is attributed to the Russian Ministry of Defense. A map from Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is provided, showing these locations and general area.

   • Assessment: This is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT AND CONTRADICTORY TO PREVIOUS REPORTS. Previous messages have indicated fighting for these locations within Ukraine in the DONETSK AND KHARKIV REGIONS. This claim places the fighting WITHIN RUSSIA'S KURSK OBLAST. This requires IMMEDIATE AND URGENT CLARIFICATION. This could indicate:

     • A MAJOR UKRAINIAN INCURSION INTO RUSSIAN TERRITORY: This is the most alarming possibility, suggesting a significant escalation and expansion of the conflict.
     • MISINFORMATION/DISINFORMATION: It is possible this is a deliberate attempt to mislead, sow confusion, or create a pretext for further Russian actions.
     • REPORTING ERROR: There may be multiple villages with the same names, leading to misidentification and misreporting of the location.
     • A CHANGE IN ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES: It is also possible Russia has changed the name of a territory to one found in Ukraine.

   • ACTION: IMMEDIATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ORLOVKA AND POGREBKI BEING REFERENCED. CROSS-REFERENCE WITH ALL AVAILABLE MAPPING DATA AND INTELLIGENCE SOURCES. URGENTLY ASSESS THE POSSIBILITY OF A UKRAINIAN INCURSION INTO KURSK OBLAST.

2. UKRAINIAN FORCES CLAIM CONTROL OF KOTLYNE NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (10:19 UTC), РБК-Україна (10:22 UTC), and Оперативний ЗСУ (10:31 UTC) report that Ukrainian forces of the 25th Separate Airborne Sicheslav Brigade have taken control of Kotlyne near Pokrovsk. They state that the capture of this settlement would have allowed Russian forces to reach the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. Оперативний ЗСУ and Николаевский Ванёк provide a video from the 25th Brigade.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS EARLIER REPORTS of a SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE in KOTLYNE. The strategic importance of the location is REINFORCED by the mention of the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway. This is a MAJOR UKRAINIAN VICTORY, preventing a potential Russian breakthrough.

3. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES REPORTED IN KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (10:39 UTC) reports powerful explosions in Konstantinovka, claiming they are targeting an industrial area with FABs (high-explosive bombs). They also claim a Ukrainian ammunition depot was hit.
   • Assessment: This requires VERIFICATION, but if confirmed, it would indicate CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY targeting INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE and potentially MILITARY SUPPLIES. The use of FABs suggests a HIGH LEVEL OF DESTRUCTIVE INTENT.

4. RUSSIAN MoD REPORTS UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KURSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (10:23 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 270 personnel, 2 armored personnel carriers, and 13 armored fighting vehicles in the Kursk direction.
   • Assessment: This claim is DIRECTLY RELATED to the reported liberation of Orlovka and Pogrebki. If the location is indeed within Kursk Oblast, Russia, this would indicate SIGNIFICANT FIGHTING WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY. This FURTHER HEIGHTENS THE URGENCY of clarifying the situation.

5. RUSSIAN DRONE TEAMS REPORTEDLY ELIMINATE UKRAINIAN MATERIEL IN KURSK BORDER AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (10:28) posted a video of FPV drone teams of the 106th airborne division from Tula taking out artillery and tank positions in the Kursk border area.
   • Assessment: This claim is DIRECTLY RELATED to the reported liberation of Orlovka and Pogrebki, and further clarifies that the attacks occurred in the border regions.

6. AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (10:28 UTC) reports an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:28) reports a threat of a ballistic attack.
   • Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of AIR ATTACK in the region.

7. LAVROV COMMENTS ON NEGOTIATIONS AND PEACEKEEPERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (10:36 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (10:38 UTC), and Военкор Котенок (10:40 UTC) quote Lavrov stating that there will be no cessation of hostilities along the front line and that Russia does not consider any options for deploying European peacekeepers.
   • TASS (10:27 UTC) reports that Lavrov claims Europe's approach to Ukraine reflects an intention to fuel the conflict and prevent attempts to calm it. TASS (10:36 UTC) also shows a video of Lavrov stating that Russia is waiting for Europeans to stop lying about Moscow's alleged refusal to negotiate.
   • TASS (10:28) reports Russia is inviting investors to explore areas of the Russian Federation for rare-earth minerals. РБК-Україна (10:35) reports Lavrov says there will be no peace on the line of contact.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES RUSSIA'S HARDLINE STANCE on negotiations. Lavrov's statements indicate that Russia is NOT WILLING TO COMPROMISE on its territorial claims and is OPPOSED TO ANY WESTERN INVOLVEMENT in a peacekeeping role. This suggests a PROTRACTED CONFLICT is likely.

8. RUSSIA-US MEETING IN ISTANBUL PLANNED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (10:27 UTC) reports that Russia and the US will hold a meeting in Istanbul on February 27th to discuss the work of embassies. Оперативний ЗСУ (10:38 UTC) also reports this.
   • Assessment: This indicates that SOME LEVEL OF DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT between Russia and the US CONTINUES, despite the conflict. The focus on embassy operations suggests the talks are NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the war, but could provide a CHANNEL FOR COMMUNICATION.

9. POTENTIAL ZELENSKY VISIT TO WASHINGTON (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (10:40 UTC) reports preparations are underway for a possible visit by President Zelensky to Washington.
   • Assessment: This is significant for getting additional aid for Ukraine.

10. RUSSIAN BUSINESS SUPPORT FOR THE WAR EFFORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Военкор Котенок (10:10 UTC) reports that representatives of Russian business, particularly in the oil sector, are actively supporting the "special military operation" with funding and supplies.
    • Assessment: This highlights the MOBILIZATION OF RUSSIAN RESOURCES to support the war effort, beyond official government channels. It suggests a DEGREE OF PUBLIC SUPPORT (or at least compliance) from the business sector.

11. CYBERATTACKS ON RUSSIAN INTERNET PROVIDER (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Новости Москвы (10:18 UTC) and TASS (10:20 UTC) report that the Russian mobile operator Beeline has been subjected to a DDoS attack, causing disruptions to mobile and home internet services.
    • Assessment: This requires VERIFICATION, but if confirmed, it would indicate CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ACTIVITY, particularly in the KHARKIV REGION. The use of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS is SIGNIFICANT, as they represent a MORE PRECISE AND DESTRUCTIVE THREAT than unguided munitions.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL MAJOR ESCALATION: RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS FIGHTING IN KURSK OBLAST, RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This is the MOST SIGNIFICANT AND CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT. The reported liberation of Orlovka and Pogrebki WITHIN RUSSIA suggests either a MAJOR UKRAINIAN INCURSION, MISINFORMATION, or a REPORTING ERROR. IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION IS CRITICAL.
• UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE SUCCESS IN KOTLYNE CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian forces have SECURED CONTROL of Kotlyne, PREVENTING A POTENTIAL RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH towards the Pokrovsk-Dnipro highway.
• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES REPORTED IN KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Requires verification, but suggests continued targeting of industrial infrastructure.
• AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Imminent threat of air attack.
• LAVROV REJECTS CEASEFIRE ON CURRENT FRONT LINE, OPPOSES PEACEKEEPERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reinforces Russia's hardline stance and suggests a protracted conflict.
• RUSSIA-US MEETING IN ISTANBUL PLANNED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Diplomatic engagement continues, but likely not focused on the war itself.
• RUSSIAN BUSINESS SUPPORT FOR WAR EFFORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Indicates mobilization of resources beyond official government channels.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY CLARIFY SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ORLOVKA AND POGREBKI BEING REFERENCED.
   • Cross-reference with all available mapping data (military, civilian, open-source) and intelligence sources (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence).
   • Urgently assess the possibility of a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. Deploy reconnaissance assets to the area.
   • Contact Ukrainian military sources (through secure channels) to SEEK CLARIFICATION and ASSESS INTENTIONS.
   • Prepare contingency plans for a potential EXPANSION OF THE CONFLICT into Russian territory.
   • Immediately prepare defenses.

2. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR AIR AND BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain highest alert status for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, particularly in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
   • Issue immediate and continuous warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER.
   • Prioritize interception of BALLISTIC MISSILES due to their SHORT FLIGHT TIME.

3. CONSOLIDATE GAINS IN KOTLYNE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Reinforce Ukrainian positions in KOTLYNE to PREVENT RUSSIAN FORCES FROM REGAINING CONTROL.
   • Deploy additional anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS to counter potential Russian counterattacks.

4. VERIFY REPORTED AIRSTRIKES IN KONSTANTINOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported airstrikes.
   • Assess the damage to INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POTENTIAL MILITARY TARGETS.

5. MONITOR RUSSIAN-US MEETING IN ISTANBUL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on the AGENDA AND OUTCOMES of the meeting.
   • Assess whether any discussions touch upon the conflict in Ukraine, even indirectly.

6. ASSESS POTENTIAL ZELENSKY VISIT TO WASHINGTON (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on the PURPOSE AND INTENDED OUTCOME of a potential visit by President Zelensky to Washington.
   • Contact the US government

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. The reported fighting in KURSK OBLAST, RUSSIA, is a POTENTIALLY MAJOR ESCALATION that requires IMMEDIATE AND URGENT CLARIFICATION. The CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in KOTLYNE is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, but the overall situation remains HIGHLY VOLATILE. The CONTINUED THREAT OF AIR ATTACKS and RUSSIA'S HARDLINE STANCE ON NEGOTIATIONS suggest a PROTRACTED AND INTENSE CONFLICT is likely.