Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 26, 2025, 09:41 UTC

Changes and New Information (09:11 UTC - 09:41 UTC)

1. UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE IN KOTLYNE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (09:28 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces of the 25th Airborne Brigade have "cleared the main part" of Kotlyne (near Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast) after a series of assaults. The southern street of the village is still reportedly under Russian control. Russian forces are reportedly continuing daily assaults on Kotlyne.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE SUCCESS in REGAINING TERRITORY previously lost. However, the CONTINUED RUSSIAN ASSAULTS indicate that the SITUATION REMAINS FLUID AND CONTESTED. The report that the village was "practically completely lost" before the Ukrainian counterattack highlights the VOLATILITY OF THE FRONTLINE in this area.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POHREBKY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (09:28 UTC) also reports that Russian forces have advanced near Pohrebky.
   • Assessment: This requires FURTHER VERIFICATION, but if confirmed, it would indicate SIMULTANEOUS RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN ADVANCES in DIFFERENT SECTORS. This highlights the DYNAMIC AND CONTESTED NATURE OF THE FRONTLINE.

3. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (09:21 UTC) reports that Russian forces conducted 8 airstrikes using 8 KABs (guided aerial bombs) and 66 drone strikes in the Kharkiv operational zone.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ACTIVITY, particularly in the KHARKIV REGION. The use of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS is SIGNIFICANT, as they represent a MORE PRECISE AND DESTRUCTIVE THREAT than unguided munitions.

4. UKRAINIAN LOSSES REPORTED IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (09:21 UTC) reports Ukrainian losses in the Kharkiv direction: 91 Russian personnel (29 KIA, 62 WIA), 71 pieces of equipment (including 1 tank, 1 armored fighting vehicle, 3 artillery systems, 1 anti-tank weapon, 6 vehicles, 1 air defense system, 11 pieces of special equipment, 2 EW systems, and 47 UAVs). Also, 43 shelters, 4 ammunition storage sites, 2 fuel storage sites, and 8 UAV launch sites were destroyed.
   • Assessment: This QUANTIFIES UKRAINIAN LOSSES, providing valuable data for ASSESSING THE INTENSITY OF THE FIGHTING and the EFFECTIVENESS OF RUSSIAN FIREPOWER. The HIGH NUMBER OF UAV LOSSES is NOTEWORTHY, suggesting EFFECTIVE RUSSIAN COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES or a HIGH CONCENTRATION OF UKRAINIAN DRONES in this area.

5. UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORT SUCCESSFUL COUNTER-DRONE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (09:34 UTC), citing nm_dnr, reports that Russian FPV drone operators of the 1st Brigade successfully destroyed a Ukrainian ground-based drone platform.
   • Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS THE INCREASING IMPORTANCE OF UNMANNED GROUND VEHICLES (UGVS) in the conflict. The DESTRUCTION OF A UKRAINIAN UGV represents a TACTICAL SUCCESS FOR RUSSIAN FORCES and underscores the VULNERABILITY OF THESE SYSTEMS to FPV DRONE ATTACKS.

6. RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES REPORTEDLY ELIMINATE UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATORS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:18 UTC) claims that Russian special forces infiltrated a Ukrainian drone operator position and eliminated the entire crew. GRAPHIC VIDEO PROVIDED.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES CAREFUL ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL SUCCESS FOR RUSSIAN FORCES and HIGHLIGHT THE VULNERABILITY OF DRONE OPERATORS to SPECIAL FORCES RAIDS. The GRAPHIC NATURE OF THE VIDEO suggests a DESIRE TO INTIMIDATE AND DEMORALIZE UKRAINIAN FORCES.

7. UKRAINIAN POW CLAIMS REMOBILIZATION AFTER CAPTURE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (09:34 UTC) shows a video with a captured soldier claiming he could be remobilized after release from captivity.
   • Assessment: This COULD BE PROPAGANDA, but it also HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL CONCERNS about UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION PRACTICES.

8. INCREASED DRONE ACTIVITY REPORTED NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews (09:35) reports that troops are seeing an unprecedented increase in enemy drone activity near Pokrovsk.
   • Assessment: Further confirms INTENSE DRONE ACTIVITY.

9. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE PROGRESS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews (09:35) reports that Russian forces have moved on the South Donetsk direction.
   • Assessment: Confirms prior reports.

10. REPORTED RUSSIAN MILITARY OBJECTS IN BELARUS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (09:18 UTC) reports that Minsk has ratified a treaty allowing Russia to create military objects in Belarus.
    • Assessment: This is SIGNIFICANT as it FORMALIZES RUSSIAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN BELARUS. It could have LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS for the SECURITY SITUATION IN THE REGION and POTENTIALLY INCREASE TENSIONS with NATO.

11. MAYOR OF POKROVSK CALLS FOR PEACE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ASTRA (09:20 UTC) reports that the mayor of Pokrovsk, Ruslan Trebushkin, addressed Zelensky in Russian, calling for peace. He claims the majority of Ukrainians want war, but people in his city do not.
    • Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL DIVISIONS within UKRAINIAN SOCIETY regarding the CONTINUATION OF THE WAR. It is UNCLEAR how representative Trebushkin's views are, but his statement COULD BE EXPLOITED BY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. The city's military administration responded by stating that it would not give in to "irresponsible political suggestions."

12. AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (09:38 UTC) reports that the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.
    • Assessment: This indicates that the IMMEDIATE THREAT in the region has PASSED, but the OVERALL SITUATION REMAINS VOLATILE.

13. KYIV REGION DRONE ATTACK DEATH TOLL RISES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Офіс Генерального прокурора (09:40 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (09:40 UTC) update the death toll from the previous night's drone attack in the Kyiv region to two.
    • Assessment: The increase highlights the DEADLY CONSEQUENCES of the RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS.

Updated Situation Summary

• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No significant changes from previous report.) High levels of Russian artillery and drone activity. Significant Ukrainian successes in eliminating Russian personnel and equipment, including a Buk-M3 SAM system.
• UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian forces have REGAINED MOST OF KOTLYNE, but FIGHTING CONTINUES.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POHREBKY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Requires verification.
• IMMINENT AIR AND BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No longer active, but threat remains.) Air alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast was lifted. Ballistic missile threat from the southeast, likely targeting Kryvyi Rih, has passed.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No significant changes from previous report.) Drone attack on a civilian car in Suzemsky District, Russia, resulting in two casualties.
• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Focused on Kharkiv region, using guided aerial bombs.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE ELIMINATED A SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF RUSSIAN FORCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED)
• RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE ELIMINATED UKRAINIAN DRONE UNIT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED)
• INCREASED DRONE ACTIVITY NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED)
• RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE PROGRESS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED)
• RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY CONTINUING TO PUSH NEAR KHARKOV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): (No significant changes from previous report) Russian forces reportedly are defeating Ukrainian troops.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
• FORMALIZED RUSSIAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN BELARUS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):
• MAYOR OF POKROVSK CALLS FOR PEACE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR AIR AND BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION): (No change, despite alert being lifted. Threat remains.)

   • Maintain highest alert status for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE.
   • Issue immediate and continuous warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER.
   • Prioritize interception of BALLISTIC MISSILES due to their SHORT FLIGHT TIME.

2. REINFORCE AND DEFEND BILOHORIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (No change.) All previous recommendations.

3. ASSESS AND MITIGATE DAMAGE TO TUAPSE REFINERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (No change.) All previous recommendations.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE ALERT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): (No change.) All previous recommendations.

5. MONITOR RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN KURSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): (No change.) All previous recommendations.

6. INVESTIGATE THE ASSERTIONS MADE BY TRUMP (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (No change.) All previous recommendations.

7. MONITOR RUSSIAN AIR RECONNAISSANCE OVER BLACK SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): (No change.) All previous recommendations.

8. ASSESS UKRAINIAN SOUTHERN FORCES REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): (No change.)

   • Further analyze the reported Russian losses to ASSESS IMPACT ON RUSSIAN CAPABILITIES in the SOUTHERN REGION.
   • Investigate the reported targeting of civilian areas and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE to DOCUMENT POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.
   • Evaluate the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense in INTERCEPTING DRONES AND MISSILES.

9. INVESTIGATE THE CLAIM THAT NATO FORCES ARE AIDING UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): (No change.)

   • Attempt to gather information, including satellite data.

10. CONSOLIDATE GAINS AND PREPARE FOR FURTHER FIGHTING IN KOTLYNE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Reinforce Ukrainian positions in KOTLYNE to PREVENT RUSSIAN FORCES FROM REGAINING CONTROL.
    • Deploy additional anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS to counter potential Russian counterattacks.
    • Prepare for potential encirclement attempts and ESTABLISH SECONDARY DEFENSIVE LINES.
    • Conduct reconnaissance to ASSESS RUSSIAN STRENGTH AND INTENTIONS in the SOUTHERN PART OF THE VILLAGE.

11. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POHREBKY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported Russian advance near POHREBKY.
    • Assess the potential impact on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in the area.

12. ASSESS UKRAINIAN LOSSES IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Further analyze the reported Ukrainian losses to ASSESS IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES in the KHARKIV REGION.

13. ASSESS RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES CLAIM (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Use all available intelligence assets to VERIFY OR REFUTE the claim that Russian special forces eliminated a Ukrainian drone operator unit.
    • Analyze the video for ANY CLUES about RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES TACTICS, TECHNIQUES, AND PROCEDURES (TTPS).
    • Assess the potential impact on UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS.

14. MONITOR SITUATION IN POKROVSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Gather intelligence on the LEVEL OF SUPPORT for the mayor's call for peace.
    • Assess the potential for civil unrest or LOCAL DISAGREEMENTS with the CENTRAL GOVERNMENT'S WAR POLICY.

15. MONITOR RUSSIAN MILITARY DEPLOYMENTS IN BELARUS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Track any new deployments of RUSSIAN MILITARY FORCES OR EQUIPMENT to BELARUS.
    • Assess the potential implications for the SECURITY SITUATION in the REGION.

16. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED FIGHTING, particularly in the DONETSK REGION, and the PERSISTENT THREAT OF AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS require CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND RAPID RESPONSE. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE SUCCESS in KOTLYNE is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, but the SITUATION REMAINS FLUID. The FORMALIZATION OF RUSSIAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN BELARUS is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT with LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS.