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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-02-26 09:11:59Z
12 months ago
Previous (2025-02-26 08:41:58Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 26, 2025, 09:11 UTC

Changes and New Information (08:41 UTC - 09:11 UTC)

  1. UKRAINIAN SOUTHERN FORCES REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Сили оборони Півдня України (08:43 UTC) provides an operational update as of 08:00 UTC, February 26, 2025:
      • Casualties: 110 Russian personnel, a Buk-M3 SAM system, 6 artillery systems, 38 vehicles, 2 motorcycles, a quad bike, 1 boat, 7 reconnaissance UAVs (Zala, Supercam, Orlan-10), 3 EW stations, 1 Starlink terminal, 3 generators, 7 communication antennas, and 2 UAV control antennas were eliminated.
      • Destroyed Infrastructure: 35 shelters/bunkers, 3 observation posts, and 1 fuel storage site were destroyed.
      • Orihiv Direction: 5 unsuccessful Russian assaults near Maly Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, and toward Novoandriivka.
      • Pridniprovskyi Direction: 1 unsuccessful Russian assault on Ukrainian positions.
      • Artillery Strikes: 320 Russian artillery strikes on frontline areas of the Kutsurub community in Mykolaiv Oblast and civilian populations in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Targeting of critical infrastructure and residential areas.
      • Kherson Casualties: 1 civilian killed, 8 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to Russian aggression.
      • Drone Attacks: Over 550 kamikaze drone strikes (various types, including Lancet) and 260 loitering munitions. Drone attacks in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, damaged civilian cars.
      • Air Strikes: Russian air strikes on civilian populations in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, using almost 30 guided aerial bombs and 18 unguided air-launched rockets.
      • Shahed-136 Interceptions: 16 Shahed-136 UAVs were destroyed by air defense units in the "Tavria" operational zone.
    • Assessment: This report CONFIRMS CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING in SOUTHERN UKRAINE, with HIGH LEVELS OF RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND DRONE ACTIVITY. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES in ELIMINATING RUSSIAN PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT are SIGNIFICANT, but the SCALE OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS remains a MAJOR CONCERN. The TARGETING OF CIVILIAN AREAS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS RUSSIAN TACTICS. The DESTRUCTION OF A BUK-M3 SAM SYSTEM is PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY, as it DEGRADES RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.
  2. AIR ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (09:04 UTC) announced an air alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
    • Assessment: INDICATES IMMINENT THREAT of AIR ATTACK OR DRONE STRIKE. REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION of AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and CIVILIAN WARNINGS.
  3. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:05 UTC) reported a threat of ballistic weapons from the southeast.
    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:08 UTC) reported a fast-moving target towards Kryvyi Rih.
    • РБК-Україна (09:08 UTC) also reported the fast-moving target towards Kryvyi Rih.
    • Assessment: CONFIRMS IMMINENT THREAT of BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK, likely TARGETING KRYVYI RIH. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION of AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and CIVILIAN WARNINGS. BALLISTIC MISSILES have a SHORT FLIGHT TIME, making RAPID RESPONSE crucial.
  4. DRONE ATTACK IN SUZEMSKY DISTRICT, RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • AV БогомаZ (09:06 UTC) reports a drone attack on a civilian car in Zernovo, Suzemsky District, Russia, resulting in two civilian casualties.
    • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The TARGETING OF A CIVILIAN VEHICLE is SIGNIFICANT, even if UNINTENTIONAL. This highlights the RISK OF COLLATERAL DAMAGE and the POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION.
  5. NATO INVOLVEMENT IN UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Два майора (09:10 UTC) claims that NATO units in Romania are assisting Ukraine in repelling Russian "Geran" drone attacks.
    • Assessment: This statement reemphasizes that Russia is continuing to push the agenda that NATO is directly involved in the conflict.

Updated Situation Summary

  • INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): High levels of Russian artillery and drone activity. Significant Ukrainian successes in eliminating Russian personnel and equipment, including a Buk-M3 SAM system.
  • IMMINENT AIR AND BALLISTIC MISSILE THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Air alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the southeast, likely targeting Kryvyi Rih.
  • UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone attack on a civilian car in Suzemsky District, Russia, resulting in two casualties.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY CONTINUING TO PUSH NEAR KHARKOV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces reportedly are defeating Ukrainian troops.
  • ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

  1. MAINTAIN EXTREME ALERT FOR AIR AND BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

    • Maintain highest alert status for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, with PARTICULAR FOCUS ON ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST AND KRYVYI RIH.
    • Issue immediate and continuous warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER.
    • Prioritize interception of BALLISTIC MISSILES due to their SHORT FLIGHT TIME.
  2. REINFORCE AND DEFEND BILOHORIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations.

  3. ASSESS AND MITIGATE DAMAGE TO TUAPSE REFINERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations.

  4. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE ALERT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): All previous recommendations.

  5. MONITOR RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN KURSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations.

  6. INVESTIGATE THE ASSERTIONS MADE BY TRUMP (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations.

  7. MONITOR RUSSIAN AIR RECONNAISSANCE OVER BLACK SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations.

  8. ASSESS UKRAINIAN SOUTHERN FORCES REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Further analyze the reported Russian losses to ASSESS IMPACT ON RUSSIAN CAPABILITIES in the SOUTHERN REGION.
    • Investigate the reported targeting of civilian areas and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE to DOCUMENT POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.
    • Evaluate the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense in INTERCEPTING DRONES AND MISSILES.
  9. INVESTIGATE THE CLAIM THAT NATO FORCES ARE AIDING UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Attempt to gather information, including satellite data.
  10. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The IMMINENT THREAT OF AIR AND BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS is the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN. The CONTINUED FIGHTING IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE and the REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIA highlight the ONGOING INTENSITY OF THE CONFLICT. CONSTANT VIGILANCE, RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, AND DECISIVE ACTION are ESSENTIAL.

Previous (2025-02-26 08:41:58Z)

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