Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (23:38 UTC) provides an update:
Drones detected in Kherson Oblast, moving northwest.
Drones detected in Donetsk Oblast, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (23:33 UTC) and РБК-Україна (23:33 UTC) report the all-clear for air raid alerts in Kyiv.
Assessment: The SCALE AND BREADTH of the attack remain UNPRECEDENTED. While Kyiv is now clear, the threat continues in OTHER REGIONS. The shift of drone movement to KHERSON AND DONETSK OBLASTS, TOWARDS KHARKIV OBLAST, suggests NEW TARGETS and CONTINUED EFFORTS TO OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES. The fact that Kyiv was under alert, but is now clear, DOES NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL SEVERITY of the ongoing, multi-pronged attack.
Николаевский Ванёк (23:53 UTC) reports the TAKEOFF OF SEVERAL Tu-95MS BOMBERS from Olenya airbase, suggesting a LIKELY COMBAT MISSION. Estimated timelines are provided:
Engels area: 04:20-04:50 UTC (possible launch time).
Missiles entering Ukrainian airspace (from Engels): 04:50-05:20 UTC.
Caspian Sea area: 05:20-06:20 UTC (possible launch time).
Missiles entering Ukrainian airspace (from Caspian Sea): 06:00-07:00 UTC.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT indicating a HIGH PROBABILITY OF A LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACK in the coming hours. The use of STRATEGIC BOMBERS suggests the potential use of LONG-RANGE CRUISE MISSILES. The provided timelines are APPROXIMATE but offer a CRITICAL WINDOW FOR PREPARATION. The potential for SIMULTANEOUS DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS represents an EXTREME THREAT, designed to OVERWHELM AND SATURATE UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (23:34 UTC) provides video footage showing Russian forces (119th Parachute Regiment) targeting and destroying Ukrainian positions near Sverdlikovo in the Kursk region.
Assessment: This supports the information from the previous update, confirming the presence of military operations in that area.
US SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN "SHADOW FLEET" (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (23:44 UTC) reports that the US has imposed sanctions on eight organizations involved in Iranian oil and petrochemical trade, targeting the "shadow fleet." This is described as the "first step" in the Trump administration's campaign of maximum pressure on Iran.
Assessment: While NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE IMMEDIATE MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE, this HIGHLIGHTS INCREASED US PRESSURE ON IRAN, a key supplier of drones to Russia. This could POTENTIALLY IMPACT Russia's ability to PROCURE SHAHEED DRONES in the LONG TERM, but the IMMEDIATE EFFECT IS LIKELY MINIMAL.
TRUMP DENIES REPORTS OF US BASE ABANDONMENT IN GREECE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (23:25 UTC) reports that Donald Trump has denied reports that the US intends to abandon a base in Greece.
Assessment: This is LOW PRIORITY given the current military situation. It's unclear what report this is referring to.
MACRON HOPES FOR END OF FIGHTING "IN WEEKS" (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (23:26 UTC) reports that French President Macron hopes for an end to fighting in Ukraine within weeks, citing an interview with Fox News.
Colonelcassad (23:28 UTC) reports about the conversation between Trump and Macron.
Assessment: This is HIGHLY UNREALISTIC given the CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION and the RECENT ESCALATIONS. It likely reflects a DESIRE FOR DE-ESCALATION, but it's NOT GROUNDED IN REALITY. The Colonelcassad reports suggest a potential change in US-European diplomatic relations.
RETURN OF FOREIGN COMPANIES TO RUSSIA (LOW PRIORITY):
ТАСС (23:47) reports it will be possible with the permission of the government.
Assessment: Irrelevant in the current situation.
Updated Situation Summary
UNPRECEDENTED, MASSIVE SHAHEED DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The attack is ongoing, with drones shifting to Kherson and Donetsk Oblasts, threatening Kharkiv. Kyiv is currently clear, but the overall threat remains extremely high.
IMMINENT THREAT OF LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): The takeoff of Tu-95MS bombers indicates a high probability of a missile attack within hours. The potential for combined drone and missile attacks is extremely dangerous.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces are confirmed to be operating near Sverdlikovo, Kursk region.
US INCREASES PRESSURE ON IRAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Sanctions on Iran's "shadow fleet" could have long-term implications for Russia's drone supply.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). This includes the confirmed Russian advances, the counter-incursion into Sumy Oblast, the growing rift between the US and some of its allies, and the continued diplomatic and financial pressures.
Updated Recommendations
IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR IMMINENT MISSILE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Issue nationwide air raid alerts.
Disperse air defense assets to MAXIMIZE COVERAGE and MINIMIZE VULNERABILITY to saturation attacks.
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure, population centers, and military assets.
Prepare for potential widespread damage and casualties.
Alert emergency services and prepare for MASS CASUALTY RESPONSE.
CONTINUE TO PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE AGAINST DRONES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain focus on INTERCEPTING INCOMING DRONES, particularly in KHERSON, DONETSK, AND KHARKIV OBLASTS.
Coordinate air defense efforts across all regions.
REINFORCE DEFENSES IN KHARKIV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy additional troops and equipment to KHARKIV OBLAST in anticipation of INCREASED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY.
Strengthen defensive positions and prepare for POTENTIAL GROUND OFFENSIVES.
MONITOR RUSSIAN ACTIVITY IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Continue to gather intelligence on Russian operations near SVERDLIKOVO.
Assess the potential for further cross-border incursions.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation has FURTHER DETERIORATED with the IMMINENT THREAT OF A LARGE-SCALE MISSILE ATTACK, combined with the ONGOING, UNPRECEDENTED DRONE ATTACK. This represents a MAJOR ESCALATION by Russia and a CRITICAL MOMENT for Ukraine. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to MINIMIZE DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES. The potential for COMBINED DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS creates an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION, designed to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN DEFENSES.
