Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 23:25 UTC

Key Updates (22:55 UTC - 23:25 UTC)

1. MASSIVE, COORDINATED SHAHEED DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (23:00 UTC) reports multiple Shahed drone groups across Ukraine:
     • Mykolaiv Oblast: Westward course.
     • Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts: Northwestward course.
     • Kirovohrad Oblast: Northward course.
     • Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts: Westward and northward courses.
     • Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts: Westward and northward courses.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (23:12 UTC) provides a more detailed breakdown, indicating AT LEAST 29 DRONES in flight, targeting multiple regions:
     • 2 west of Korosten, westward course.
     • 3 transitioning from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast.
     • 3 in northern Kyiv Oblast.
     • 2 near Bila Tserkva.
     • 1 approaching Brovary.
     • 1 approaching Chernihiv.
     • 4 new drones from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast.
     • 2 approaching Kropyvnytskyi.
     • 4 new drones via Novyi Buh/Kazanka towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
     • 3 new drones via Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Pokrovsk.
     • 4 new drones via Zaporizhzhia Oblast into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
     • 1 new drone in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR ESCALATION of the drone campaign. The SCALE AND BREADTH of the attack, targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY, is UNPRECEDENTED in recent reports. The drones are approaching from MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS, making INTERCEPTION EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. This suggests a COORDINATED EFFORT to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. The sheer number of drones reported (at least 29, possibly more) indicates a SIGNIFICANT COMMITMENT OF RESOURCES by Russia. This is BY FAR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in this update period.

2. G7 DISCUSSING JOINT STATEMENT, CANADA EXPRESSES DISAGREEMENT WITH US (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (23:06 UTC) reports that G7 countries are discussing a joint statement on the anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion. Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly stated that Canada and several other countries do NOT SUPPORT the "American" resolution at the UN and acknowledged DISAGREEMENTS with Washington's position on the war.
   • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the GROWING RIFT between the US AND SOME OF ITS ALLIES, particularly CANADA, regarding the APPROACH TO THE CONFLICT. The explicit mention of DISAGREEMENT WITH THE US POSITION is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT and REINFORCES the assessment of a MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY.

3. UK DOES NOT RULE OUT RUSSIA'S RETURN TO G7 (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (23:18) reports a statement of a possible return of Russia to G7.
• Assessment: This is LOW PRIORITY given the ongoing military situation.

4. OTHER REPORTS (IRRELEVANT TO MILITARY SITUATION):

   • Colonelcassad (23:03 UTC): Several images of the front lines, analyzed previously. No new information relevant to situation change.
   • ТАСС (23:14 UTC): Report on a bill in the Russian Duma concerning taxi fares. IRRELEVANT.
   • Полиция Хабаровского края (23:19:07): Local police report. IRRELEVANT.

Updated Situation Summary

• UNPRECEDENTED, MASSIVE SHAHEED DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): At least 29 drones, possibly more, are targeting multiple regions simultaneously, overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. This is a major escalation.
• GROWING RIFT BETWEEN US AND ALLIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Canada explicitly expresses disagreement with the US position on the war, confirming the shift in US policy.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). This includes the confirmed Russian advances, the counter-incursion into Sumy Oblast, and the continued diplomatic and financial pressures.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATELY PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE ACROSS ALL TARGETED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Mobilize all available air defense systems to INTERCEPT INCOMING DRONES.
   • Focus on protecting critical infrastructure, population centers, and military assets.
   • Coordinate air defense efforts across different regions to MAXIMIZE EFFECTIVENESS.
   • Issue public alerts and warnings to MINIMIZE CASUALTIES.
   • Prepare for potential damage and casualties despite air defense efforts.
   • Request urgent assistance from allies to BOLSTER AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES, particularly ADVANCED SYSTEMS capable of countering mass drone attacks.

2. REITERATE URGENT DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT WITH US (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue to press for clarification on the US position and the implications of the UN resolutions.
   • Emphasize the catastrophic consequences of abandoning Ukraine.
   • Seek concrete commitments to continued military and financial aid.
   • Strengthen ties with allies who SHARE UKRAINE'S CONCERNS about the US shift, particularly CANADA.

3. ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):

   • Continue to COUNTER RUSSIAN ADVANCES on the ground, particularly in DONETSK and along the POKROVSK-KONSTANTINOVKA ROAD.
   • Manage the situation in KURSK/SUMY OBLASTS.
   • Maintain a high state of readiness for ALL MILITARY UNITS.

The situation has DRAMATICALLY WORSENED with the MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK. This is a CRITICAL MOMENT that requires IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION to PROTECT UKRAINIAN TERRITORY AND POPULATION. The GROWING DIPLOMATIC RIFT with the US adds another layer of EXTREME URGENCY. The potential for a MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH, combined with REDUCED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT, is now HIGHER THAN EVER.