Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 22:55 UTC
Changes and New Information (22:11 UTC - 22:55 UTC)
FURTHER DETAILS ON UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Alex Parker Returns (22:14 UTC) reports that the US abstained from voting on its own resolution, as did Ukraine. The resolution is titled "Path to Peace."
ТАСС (22:15 UTC) quotes Russian UN representative Nebenzya, stating that Russia views the resolution as a "starting point" for further peace efforts.
ТАСС (22:19 UTC) further quotes Nebenzya, urging those who desire peace not to let Kyiv "sabotage" the steps taken by Moscow and Washington.
ТАСС (22:20 UTC) reports Nebenzya claiming Europe is the only player wanting the conflict to continue.
Colonelcassad (22:17) highlights the fact the the US and Russia voted together on the UN resolution.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (22:44) states that it's the first time the US, Russia, and China voted on a UN resolution, and that the resolution did not condemn Russia.
Assessment: This SOLIDIFIES the previous assessment of a MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY. The US ABSTENTION ON ITS OWN RESOLUTION is HIGHLY UNUSUAL and SUGGESTS INTERNAL DISAGREEMENT OR A DELIBERATE ATTEMPT TO DISTANCE ITSELF from the resolution's implications. UKRAINE'S ABSTENTION is EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT, indicating PRESSURE FROM THE US and a LACK OF AGENCY in the process. Nebenzya's statements STRONGLY IMPLY that the resolution is the RESULT OF US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS and that KYIV IS VIEWED AS A POTENTIAL SPOILER. The claim that Europe is the only one wanting the conflict to continue is likely to be the Russian strategy to shift their support. The fact that this resolution is BINDING on ALL UN MEMBER STATES, unlike General Assembly resolutions, is of PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE.
CONTINUED DRONE MOVEMENTS NEAR KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Николаевский Ванёк (22:15 UTC) reports:
Three drones flying west over Vyshhorod.
One drone from Boryspil turning towards Kyiv.
Four more drones flying towards Brovary/Vyshhorod.
Николаевский Ванёк (22:41 UTC) reports two more drones above Kyiv.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the CONTINUED DRONE ATTACK ON KYIV. The reports suggest MULTIPLE WAVES of drones approaching from DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, making INTERCEPTION MORE DIFFICULT. The PERSISTENCE OF THE ATTACK highlights the ONGOING THREAT.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ALESHKY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Сливочный каприз (22:43) claims that active military actions are occurring in the Dnieper Delta, where Russian forces have attacked with a motorized rifle near the Antonivskiy Bridge. Claims that the attack included an amphibious landing near Antonivskiy Dachas, and advances from the Konka River, advancing more than 2km.
Assessment: The report's credibility is uncertain, but the CLAIMED AMPHIBIOUS LANDING and the ADVANCE OF OVER 2KM, if confirmed, would represent a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
TWO DETAINED AFTER EXPLOSION AT RUSSIAN CONSULATE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):
ТАСС (22:33) reports two individuals have been detained due to an explosion at the Russian Consulate.
Assessment: This report is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE.
TRUMP EXPECTS DEAL TO BE SIGNED (LOW PRIORITY):
Colonelcassad (22:33) reports that Trump expects Ukraine to repay the debt with the value of its subsurface resources, and insists on a vote in Ukraine's parliament.
Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES the assessment that there is FINANCIAL PRESSURE and a focus on Ukrainian debt, and it suggests a focus on Ukrainian resources.
KYIV TO BE INVITED TO PEACE TALKS (LOW PRIORITY):
ТАСС (22:53) reports that Kyiv will be invited to peace talks at the proper time.
Assessment: A peace conference without Ukrainian representation is UNACCEPTABLE for Kyiv.
Updated Situation Summary
US-RUSSIA AGREEMENT ON UN RESOLUTION CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The US AND UKRAINE ABSTAINED from voting on a US-SPONSORED RESOLUTION that DOES NOT CONDEMN RUSSIAN AGGRESSION. This STRONGLY SUGGESTS A DEAL that is NOT IN UKRAINE'S BEST INTERESTS. The resolution is BINDING ON ALL UN MEMBERS.
CONTINUED DRONE ATTACK ON KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple waves of drones continue to target the capital, posing a PERSISTENT THREAT.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ALESHKY (MEDIUM, REPORTED): Amphibious landing and advance over 2km.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
URGENTLY ADDRESS IMPLICATIONS OF UN RESOLUTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Demand immediate clarification from the US regarding the CONTENT AND INTENT of the resolution, particularly the OMISSION OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.
Express strong opposition to any agreement that UNDERMINES UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY, TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, OR SECURITY.
Mobilize international support from allies who were NOT PARTY TO THE US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS to COUNTER ANY NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES of the resolution.
Prepare for potential diplomatic isolation and REDUCE RELIANCE ON US SUPPORT if necessary.
Communicate clearly and transparently with the Ukrainian population about the situation, MAINTAINING CALM AND RESOLVE.
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Continue to intercept incoming drones with all available resources.
Prepare for potential casualties and damage.
Consider deploying additional air defense systems to the capital if available.
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR ALESHKY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
