Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 22:10 UTC

Changes and New Information (21:40 UTC - 22:10 UTC)

1. DRONE MOVEMENTS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (21:41 UTC) provides detailed reports of Shahed drone movements:
     • One drone passing Boryspil towards Vasylkiv.
     • Two drones approaching Brovary.
     • Eight drones moving from Chernihiv Oblast to Kyiv Oblast, expected to fly slightly north of Kyiv.
     • One drone each heading towards/through Smila/Cherkasy.
     • Two drones heading towards/through Kazanka.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:54 UTC) reports:
     • Shaheds in Mykolaiv Oblast heading west.
     • Shaheds in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading west and east.
     • Shaheds in Kirovohrad and Cherkasy Oblasts heading south.
     • Shaheds in Poltava and Cherkasy Oblasts heading southwest.
     • Shaheds in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts heading west.
     • Shaheds in Kyiv Oblast heading southwest, with drones near the capital.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:01 UTC):
     • Zhytomyr Oblast under threat of attack drones.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A WIDESPREAD AND COORDINATED DRONE ATTACK across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The reports indicate MULTIPLE WAVES of drones approaching from VARIOUS DIRECTIONS, suggesting a COMPLEX AND SUSTAINED ASSAULT. The DIVERSITY OF TARGETS (from Kyiv to smaller cities) suggests an attempt to OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES and STRIKE MULTIPLE LOCATIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY.

2. UN SECURITY COUNCIL ADOPTS US RESOLUTION ON UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (21:45 UTC) reports that the UN Security Council adopted the US-proposed resolution on the conflict in Ukraine.
   • РБК-Україна (21:51 UTC) confirms the adoption with 10 votes in favor, none against, and five abstentions (UK, France, Greece, Slovenia, Denmark). The resolution NOTABLY LACKS ANY MENTION OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.
   • Colonelcassad (21:56 UTC) claims that the resolution for the first time does not contain direct accusations against Russia.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. The ADOPTION OF A US-SPONSORED RESOLUTION that OMITS ANY REFERENCE TO RUSSIAN AGGRESSION is a SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE from previous UN statements. The ABSTENTIONS from KEY EUROPEAN ALLIES suggest DISAGREEMENT or CONCERN about the resolution's content and implications. This STRONGLY REINFORCES the earlier assessment of a POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA AGREEMENT that MAY NOT BE IN UKRAINE'S BEST INTERESTS. The lack of condemnation of Russia is a MAJOR VICTORY FOR RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY.

3. RUSSIAN REPORT OF DESTROYED UKRAINIAN GROUND DRONE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (21:42 UTC) reports that Russian drone operators from the "Okhotnik" special forces unit of the 51st Army destroyed a Ukrainian ground drone. The report claims this disrupted the supply of provisions and ammunition to Ukrainian positions.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE USE OF GROUND DRONES by BOTH SIDES in the conflict. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian drone HIGHLIGHTS THE VULNERABILITY of these systems and the ONGOING EFFORTS to COUNTER THEM.

4. MACRON SUGGESTS UKRAINE SHOULD REPAY US AID (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (22:04 UTC) reported that Macron said that Ukraine will have to pay for the help that the US has provided.
   • Assessment: This would be expected, and is a standard component of providing military aid.

Updated Situation Summary

• WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK UNDERWAY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple waves of Shahed drones are targeting various regions across Ukraine, including Kyiv, indicating a COORDINATED AND SUSTAINED ASSAULT.
• UN SECURITY COUNCIL ADOPTS US RESOLUTION WITHOUT MENTIONING RUSSIAN AGGRESSION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This MAJOR DEVELOPMENT strongly suggests a SHIFT IN US POLICY and REINFORCES CONCERNS about a POTENTIAL DEAL DETRIMENTAL TO UKRAINE.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING AND USE OF UNMANNED SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Reports confirm the use of both aerial and ground drones by both sides.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Activate all available air defense systems across Ukraine, with PARTICULAR FOCUS on KYIV, MYKOLAIV, DNIPROPETROVSK, KIROVOHRAD, CHERKASY, POLTAVA, SUMY, CHERNIHIV, AND ZHYTOMYR OBLASTS.
   • Coordinate air defense efforts to MAXIMIZE INTERCEPTION RATES and MINIMIZE DAMAGE.
   • Prepare for potential casualties and damage from drone strikes.

2. URGENTLY SEEK CLARIFICATION ON US RESOLUTION AND POTENTIAL AGREEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Engage in immediate diplomatic efforts with the US and other allies to UNDERSTAND THE FULL IMPLICATIONS of the UN Security Council resolution.
   • Express strong concerns about the OMISSION OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION and the POTENTIAL FOR A DEAL that UNDERMINES UKRAINIAN INTERESTS.
   • Seek assurances that any agreement will RESPECT UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.

3. CONTINUE MONITORING DRONE MOVEMENTS AND DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Track drone movements in real-time using all available intelligence sources.
   • Develop and implement countermeasures to DETECT, TRACK, AND NEUTRALIZE drone threats, including both aerial and ground drones.
   • Analyze drone wreckage to GATHER INTELLIGENCE on their capabilities and origins.

4. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, the UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION, and the CONTINUED USE OF UNMANNED SYSTEMS are CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.

The situation has taken a SERIOUSLY NEGATIVE TURN. The DRONE ATTACK poses an IMMEDIATE THREAT, while the UN RESOLUTION raises GRAVE CONCERNS about the LONG-TERM POLITICAL LANDSCAPE and the POTENTIAL FOR A FORCED, UNFAVORABLE PEACE AGREEMENT. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on BOTH THE MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC FRONTS.