Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 20:11 UTC

Key Changes and Additions from New Messages (19:46 - 20:11 UTC):

1. Confirmed Airstrikes on Donetsk Oblast (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:46 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS an ACTIVE AND IMMEDIATE AIR THREAT to DONETSK OBLAST. This is consistent with previous reports and REINFORCES THE NEED FOR MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS.

2. Putin's Statements on US-Ukraine Cooperation on Rare Earth Metals (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Multiple TASS reports (19:47, 19:48, 19:49, 19:50, 20:01, 20:03, 20:06, 20:07, 20:08 UTC) and other sources detail Putin's comments:

     • The agreement between the US and Ukraine on rare earth metals does not concern Russia.
     • Russia is one of the world leaders in rare earth metal reserves.
     • Russia is ready to offer cooperation to the US on rare earth metals, including in Donbas and Novorossiya.
     • Russia is not against the EU's participation in the Ukrainian settlement, but considers the position of BRICS and other countries important.
     • Russia is ready to talk with USA about cutting the military budget.
     • Existing EU leaders are engaged with the Kyiv regime.
     • Russia doesn't have anything against keeping the Ukrainian government, but not as a threat.
     • RF and USA companies are talking about economical projects.

   • Assessment: Putin is attempting to DOWNPLAY THE SIGNIFICANCE of the US-Ukraine agreement while POSITIONING RUSSIA AS A KEY PLAYER in the rare earth metals market. The offer of cooperation, including in occupied territories, is a PROPAGANDA TACTIC aimed at LEGITIMIZING RUSSIA'S CONTROL and POTENTIALLY DIVIDING THE WEST. The statements on BRICS and the EU highlight Russia's efforts to COUNTER WESTERN INFLUENCE and PROMOTE MULTIPOLARITY.

3. Zelenskyy's Political Situation and Negotiations (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (19:51, 19:53, 19:54 UTC) and Colonelcassad (19:58 UTC) report Putin's claims:
     • Zelenskyy has cornered himself with a decree banning negotiations with Russia.
     • Zelenskyy has no chance of winning elections.
     • Trump wants to improve the situation in Ukraine.
     • Russia and the US want peace in Ukraine as soon as possible, and Zelenskyy is preventing this.
     • Current EU leaders are biased towards the Kyiv regime.
   • Assessment: Putin continues his INFORMATION WARFARE CAMPAIGN to DISCREDIT ZELENSKYY and UNDERMINE HIS LEGITIMACY. The claim that Zelenskyy is an obstacle to peace is a RECURRING RUSSIAN NARRATIVE. The reference to Trump aligns with previous reports of a potential shift in US policy.

4. Drone Warfare and Counter-Drone Operations (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • STERNENKO (19:47 UTC) video of drone reconnaissance, potentially showing signal interference.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:50 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:59 UTC) report the Ryazan oil refinery has stopped operations after a drone attack.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:58 UTC) images of downed "Privet-82" drones in Sumy Oblast, reportedly carrying explosives.
   • Два майора (19:50) show a video of drones.
   • Assessment: This highlights the CONTINUED IMPORTANCE OF DRONE WARFARE on both sides. The successful downing of drones in Sumy Oblast demonstrates UKRAINIAN COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES. The refinery attack, if confirmed, showcases UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY.

5. Propaganda and Psychological Operations (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • STERNENKO (20:04 UTC) reports that Russian propaganda aims to weaken Ukraine.
   • ASTRA(20:05 UTC) shows protests.

Updated Overall Situation:

• CONTINUED AIR THREAT, INCLUDING DONETSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Guided aerial bomb launches continue, REQUIRING CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND RAPID RESPONSE.
• PUTIN'S STATEMENTS ON US-UKRAINE COOPERATION AND NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Putin is attempting to MANIPULATE THE NARRATIVE surrounding the conflict, POSITIONING RUSSIA AS A REASONABLE ACTOR and DEMONIZING ZELENSKYY.
• INTENSE DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Both sides are actively using drones for reconnaissance, attack, and counter-drone operations.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations:

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT, PRIORITIZE DONETSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain and reinforce air defense systems across all threatened regions, with PRIORITY given to DONETSK OBLAST in response to CONFIRMED AIR ATTACKS.
   • Issue public warnings and ensure access to shelters.

2. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Expose Russian disinformation about Zelenskyy and negotiations.
   • Highlight Russia's role in prolonging the conflict.
   • Promote Ukrainian unity and resilience.

3. ENHANCE DRONE WARFARE AND COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue to develop and deploy advanced drone technologies.
   • Improve counter-drone systems and tactics.
   • Share intelligence on drone threats with allies.

4. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED AIR THREAT, particularly in DONETSK OBLAST, is the IMMEDIATE MAJOR THREAT. PUTIN'S STATEMENTS require a STRONG AND COORDINATED COUNTER-NARRATIVE. The INTENSE DRONE WARFARE highlights the need for CONTINUED TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT AND ADAPTATION. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE AIR DEFENSE, CONTINUOUS INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION are PARAMOUNT.