Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 19:45 UTC
Key Changes and Additions from New Messages (19:30 - 19:45 UTC):
Renewed Air Strikes on Sumy Oblast (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:31 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
Assessment: This REINFORCES THE ONGOING AIR THREAT in Sumy Oblast, CONFIRMING CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR OPERATIONS in the region. This MAINTAINS THE EXTREME PRIORITY for air defense in this area.
Putin on Rare Earth Metals (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:32 UTC) provides a summary of the meeting.
Assessment:REINFORCES RUSSIA'S FOCUS on DOMESTIC PRODUCTION of STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT MATERIALS. This has LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS for Russia's MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX and ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:34, 19:37 UTC) reports:
"Shahed" drones on Dnipropetrovsk region moving southeast.
"Shahed" drones on Poltava region moving southwest.
"Shahed" drones in Sumy region moving west.
"Shahed" drones in Chernihiv region moving west.
Cherkasy and Kyiv regions (excluding the capital) under threat of attack UAVs.
Assessment: This INDICATES CONTINUED AND MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE THREATS. CHERKASY AND KYIV REGIONS (EXCLUDING THE CAPITAL) are NEW TARGETS IDENTIFIED in this update.
РБК-Україна (19:35 UTC) reports, citing Reuters, that the Ryazan oil refinery has stopped operations after a drone attack, with the primary crude distillation unit (CDU-6) on fire. The plant may partially resume operations within days.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY against RUSSIAN CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. The IMPACT ON RUSSIAN FUEL PRODUCTION needs to be assessed, but this COULD HAVE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS if sustained. URGENT VERIFICATION AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT are needed.
Potential Closure of NATO Base in Greece (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (19:39 UTC) reports, citing the Greek newspaper "Democracy," that the US is closing its base in Alexandroupolis, Greece, a key logistical hub for arms shipments to Ukraine.
Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but if true, could IMPACT THE FLOW OF WEAPONS to Ukraine. However, the report acknowledges that the US uses multiple routes, so the impact MAY BE LIMITED. The report's suggestion that this is due to Trump's cost-cutting aligns with previous reports of a potential shift in US policy.
Офіс Генерального прокурора (19:42 UTC) reports that one woman died, and 5 people were injured, because of shelling in the Donetsk region.
Assessment: CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS TARGETING INFRASTRUCTURE.
Propaganda:
Alex Parker Returns (19:34 UTC) shows a propaganda advertisement.
ASTRA (19:34 UTC) shows an anti-war video.
Colonelcassad (19:41 UTC) reports that the Georgian Parliament registered the new law.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:41) reports that Russia is interested in rare earth metals.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:43) reports that Russian channels praise Americans.
НгП раZVедка (19:43) shows a propaganda image.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:44) shows an image of the Eiffel Tower.
Assessment: CONTINUED INFORMATION WARFARE on BOTH SIDES.
Other Reports (LOW PRIORITY):
MoD Russia (19:38) displays an infographic.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (19:38) shows the chief of the Ukrainian General Staff in an online lesson.
Два майора (19:40) discusses a new war in Bosnia.
Updated Overall Situation:
CONTINUED AND EXPANDING AIR THREAT, INCLUDING RENEWED STRIKES ON SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone activity and guided aerial bomb launches continue, REQUIRING CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND RAPID RESPONSE. CHERKASY AND KYIV REGIONS (EXCLUDING THE CAPITAL) are NEWLY IDENTIFIED TARGETS.
SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN OIL REFINERY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): The reported attack on the Ryazan refinery is SIGNIFICANT, potentially IMPACTING RUSSIAN FUEL PRODUCTION. URGENT VERIFICATION AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT are needed.
POTENTIAL CLOSURE OF NATO BASE IN GREECE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): If confirmed, this could IMPACT WEAPONS FLOW to Ukraine, but the EXTENT OF THE IMPACT is unclear.
KYIV UNDER SUSTAINED DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MULTIPLE DRONES are approaching Kyiv from VARIOUS DIRECTIONS. CONFIRMED DAMAGE to THREE PRIVATE HOUSES AND SEVERAL CARS in DARNYTSKYI DISTRICT. NO CASUALTIES REPORTED in Kyiv so far. CONTINUED EXPLOSIONS reported, indicating ONGOING AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY.
ZAPORIZHZHIA UNDER ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):CONFIRMED EXPLOSIONS in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, corroborating previous reports of drone activity.
KROPYVNYTSKYI AND UMAN NOW TARGETED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Drones reported heading towards these cities, expanding the geographical scope of the attack.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES CLAIMED NEAR BILOHORIVKA AND PIATYKHATKY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, WITH MAPS): Russian sources claim advances on two fronts, with maps providing geographical context. REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION, but if confirmed, represents TACTICAL GAINS FOR RUSSIA and INCREASED PRESSURE ON UKRAINIAN DEFENSES.
TRUMP'S TRANSACTIONAL APPROACH TO UKRAINE AID (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Further reports reinforce the narrative of a potential shift in US policy under Trump, with demands for resources in exchange for aid.
PRISONER EXCHANGE TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY): Kyiv is working.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations:
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT AND EXPAND COVERAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across Ukraine must remain at MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS and be REPOSITIONED AS NEEDED to address the EXPANDING GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE of the drone and air attacks.
Prioritize air defense in SUMY OBLAST, KYIV, KHARKIV OBLAST, ZAPORIZHZHIA, KROPYVNYTSKYI, UMAN, CHERKASY REGION, KYIV REGION (EXCLUDING THE CAPITAL), and ALL AREAS with REPORTED DRONE/AIR ACTIVITY.
Deploy all available assets, including MOBILE AIR DEFENSE UNITS, to INTERCEPT DRONES AND MISSILES before they reach populated areas or critical infrastructure.
Issue continuous warnings to civilians in ALL THREATENED AREAS to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
Maintain close coordination between air defense units across the country.
URGENTLY ASSESS DAMAGE AND IMPACT OF RYAZAN REFINERY ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to VERIFY THE REPORTED ATTACK and ASSESS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE to the Ryazan oil refinery.
Determine the impact on RUSSIAN FUEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY and POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS to military and civilian supplies.
Assess the potential for environmental damage and SECONDARY HAZARDS.
INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL CLOSURE OF NATO BASE IN GREECE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Seek confirmation of the reported closure of the US base in Alexandroupolis, Greece, through DIPLOMATIC AND INTELLIGENCE CHANNELS.
Assess the potential impact on WEAPONS SHIPMENTS TO UKRAINE and IDENTIFY ALTERNATIVE ROUTES AND LOGISTICAL ARRANGEMENTS if necessary.
ADDRESS TRUMP'S STATEMENTS AND POTENTIAL US POLICY SHIFT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Continue diplomatic efforts to CLARIFY THE US POSITION on aid and SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS for continued support.
Engage with European allies to COORDINATE A RESPONSE to potential changes in US policy.
CONTINUE MONITORING FRONT LINES (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Continue to monitor for the threat of Russian airstrikes in the East.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED AND EXPANDING AIR THREAT, particularly with RENEWED STRIKES ON SUMY OBLAST and the EXPANSION TO CHERKASY AND KYIV REGIONS, is the IMMEDIATE MAJOR THREAT. The REPORTED SUCCESSFUL ATTACK ON THE RYAZAN REFINERY is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT requiring URGENT ATTENTION. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE AIR DEFENSE, CONTINUOUS INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, AND ADAPTABILITY are PARAMOUNT.
