Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 17:35 UTC

Changes and New Information (17:30 UTC - 17:35 UTC)

There are no major updates in the narrow window of 17:30-17:35 UTC. However, the accumulation of information from 17:00-17:30 UTC warrants a significant revision of the overall assessment and recommendations.

Review of High-Priority Updates (17:00 - 17:32 UTC)

1. Trump's Claims of Negotiations with Putin (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Multiple sources report Trump claiming to be in "serious negotiations" with Putin about ending the war AND negotiating ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS between the US and Russia. Trump claims these are going "very well."

   • Assessment: This is THE MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. It suggests a MAJOR, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC SHIFT in US policy. Direct negotiations WITHOUT UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT are EXTREMELY CONCERNING. The lack of transparency about these talks is DEEPLY PROBLEMATIC.

2. US-Ukraine Mineral Deal (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Trump claims a deal on rare earth minerals with Ukraine will COMPENSATE THE US for military aid. Reports indicate 50% of Ukraine's income from "extracted materials" would go to a fund where the US IS THE SOLE BENEFICIARY.

   • Assessment: This confirms a TRANSACTIONAL approach to the Ukraine conflict by the US. The reported terms are HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE TO UKRAINE. This raises SERIOUS QUESTIONS about the LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS of US support.

3. Continued Russian Aerial Threat (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts due to drone threats (Ukrainian sources).
   • Russian MoD claims to have shot down 12 Ukrainian drones over Crimea, Black Sea, Oryol, and Bryansk Oblasts (Russian source).
   • Drone down in a residential area of Sevastopol.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD AERIAL WARFARE. Both sides are using drones extensively.

4. Zelensky Warns of Russian Expansionist Aims (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Zelensky warns Russia intends to expand its influence to former USSR countries, naming Ukraine, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Poland.

   • Assessment: REINFORCES UKRAINE'S LONG-STANDING POSITION that RUSSIA'S GOALS EXTEND BEYOND UKRAINE. This is a STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION effort.

5. Russian Artillery Strike in Kharkiv Region (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Russian MoD reports artillery strike on a Ukrainian mortar position. * Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS in the Kharkiv Region.

6. Claimed Ukrainian Drone Warfare (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade claims to have shot down three Russian reconnaissance drones in the Kharkiv region.

   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITY.

7. Russian Advances on Right Bank of Oskil River (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Russian forces expanding control on the right bank of the Oskil River.

   • Assessment: Suggests potential for further Russian offensive operations in this area.

8. Ireland to Send Giraffe Radars (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Assessment: Strengthens Ukrainian Air defenses.

9. South Korea to Lift Sanctions (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Assessment: South Korea is removing it's sanctions on medical exports to Russia.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL US POLICY SHIFT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Trump's claims of negotiations with Putin and an unfavorable mineral deal represent a POTENTIAL, IMMEDIATE THREAT to Ukraine's strategic position. THIS IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
• CONTINUED INTENSE AERIAL WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone attacks and air defense activity continue on both sides, across a wide area.
• ONGOING RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Evidence of Russian military activity in Kharkiv region and advances near the Oskil River.
• ZELENSKY WARNS OF RUSSIAN EXPANSIONISM (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Aims to maintain international support and warn other potentially threatened countries.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY SEEK CLARIFICATION ON US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Immediately engage with US officials at the HIGHEST LEVELS to VERIFY Trump's claims.
   • Demand transparency about the content of these negotiations.
   • Express strong concerns about any agreement that undermines Ukraine's sovereignty.
   • Reiterate Ukraine's position on the need for a just peace settlement.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AERIAL THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain air defense readiness in all threatened Oblasts.
   • Continue monitoring Russian drone activity.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure.

3. STRENGTHEN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT NETWORK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Intensify diplomatic efforts with EUROPEAN ALLIES and other partners.
   • Highlight the threat of Russian expansionism.
   • Explore alternative avenues for military and financial assistance in case of reduced US support.

4. CONTINUE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING ON RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Focus on verifying reported Russian advances.
   • Monitor Russian troop movements, deployments, and DRONE ACTIVITY.

5. CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted.

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The POTENTIAL US POLICY SHIFT poses a MAJOR THREAT. IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THIS THREAT, MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT, and ADAPT STRATEGY. The CONTINUED AERIAL WARFARE and RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY underscore the ONGOING DANGER.